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When will the combustion engine be obsolete? #4803841
07/03/18 09:09 AM
07/03/18 09:09 AM
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 30,919
NJ
buster Offline OP
buster  Offline OP
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 30,919
NJ
How long do you think it will take before the majority of cars no longer use combustion engines and electric is the norm?

Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster] #4803847
07/03/18 09:15 AM
07/03/18 09:15 AM
Joined: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,679
Indiana
dlundblad Offline
dlundblad  Offline
Joined: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,679
Indiana
Seeing how Tesla isn't doing good financially and is the main producer of all electric cars, probably a long time.

Hybrids? At the moment, I'm guessing less than 10% of vehicles produced in the world are hybrid.


03 Jeep WJ 4.0 202k Castrol Edge 10w40 HM Fram XG16
02 Volvo S60 2.4T 186k M1 0w40 Mahle OX149D
97 Chevy Blazer 4.3 153k Synpower 5w30 Supertech ST3980 (Ecore)

Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster] #4803849
07/03/18 09:16 AM
07/03/18 09:16 AM
Joined: Oct 2014
Posts: 12,565
Idaho
CT8 Offline
CT8  Offline
Joined: Oct 2014
Posts: 12,565
Idaho
When we have an infrastructure large enough to prove the power needed to charge the batteries. I worked one electric forklifts for many years. Electric vehicles are nice. Battery recharging is the hard point. Even with regen braking the batteries still needed to be changed or recharged each shift.


2015 Ford F150 2.7
2018 Ford F350 6.2
Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster] #4803850
07/03/18 09:16 AM
07/03/18 09:16 AM
Joined: Oct 2015
Posts: 446
MN
TmanP Offline
TmanP  Offline
Joined: Oct 2015
Posts: 446
MN
This, in my opinion, is one of those things that will (for the next few decades) be pushed out and pushed out.
My guess is that the equilibrium point will be sometime in 30-60 years. But gas and diesel engines will still be relevant for a good while thereafter. I think that a big issue is that much of our power is generated by coal and is probably dirtier than a gas engine, plus the power has to be transmitted. In my opinion, cars are already remarkably efficient: a midsized car, for example, can travel a mile on 4 ounces (1/2 cup) of gas. That's pretty incredible. So you will see more and more electric cars in the coming decades but it's not like in 2025 cars will be half electric already. So, short answer, I'd guess at least several decades before they become a majority. (Plus the average age of a car is something like 11-12 years.)


2012 Toyota Camry 2.5 30,000 mi
2015 Chevy Silverado LT Z71 5.3 V8 30,000 mi
2010 Toyota Sienna 3.5 V6 150,000 mi
Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster] #4803852
07/03/18 09:21 AM
07/03/18 09:21 AM
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 5,029
The Midwest
skyactiv Offline
skyactiv  Offline
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 5,029
The Midwest
Not in our lifetime. Is the USAF going to have battery operated fighter craft?


Wife: 15' Audi A4 quattro 6 speed manual
Me: 13' VW GTI 3 door 6 speed manual
Wanted: 2019 Ford Ranger
Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster] #4803853
07/03/18 09:22 AM
07/03/18 09:22 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 8,012
Canuck living in California
KrisZ Online content
KrisZ  Online Content
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 8,012
Canuck living in California
By free market forces, probably not for the next 100 years, by legislation, it can happen tomorrow.


2015 Dodge Grand Caravan-27k miles.
2006 Mazda 3-163k miles
Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster] #4803855
07/03/18 09:25 AM
07/03/18 09:25 AM
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 3,231
Where the wind comes sweepin'
Reddy45 Offline
Reddy45  Offline
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 3,231
Where the wind comes sweepin'
"Why can't everything that works die off so we can use shiny new things already?"

Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster] #4803857
07/03/18 09:27 AM
07/03/18 09:27 AM
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 1,310
US
JLTD Offline
JLTD  Offline
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 1,310
US
IMO two things need to happen:

1) Better power storage; today's batteries in most cases cannot rival a tank of gas for range.

2) Less oil; mankind has a propensity to not make changes until forced to do so.

That said, Elon Musk is slightly ahead of his time; with his network of charging stations you can drive a Tesla coast to coast. If he keeps it running a few more years I may buy one...pricing is the concern right now for most folks.


I'm a thickie; assimilate
But 20s have their place

Using AMSOIL

Hers: 2008 Jeep Liberty 138k, SS 5w30/Amsoil

His: 2015 4Runner 41k, OE 5w30/Wix

Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster] #4803860
07/03/18 09:30 AM
07/03/18 09:30 AM
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 13,974
Illinois
tig1 Offline
tig1  Offline
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 13,974
Illinois
I hope not in my lifetime. You younger guys are on your own.


2007 Ford Fusion 235,000 miles
M1 0-20 EP
2017 Ford Fusion 60K
M1 0-20 EP
10,000 mile OCIs on both engines
M1 ATF and Valvoline LV
M1 10-30 in all OPE
MC filters

Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster] #4803861
07/03/18 09:30 AM
07/03/18 09:30 AM
Joined: Jul 2005
Posts: 30,964
NY
demarpaint Offline
demarpaint  Offline
Joined: Jul 2005
Posts: 30,964
NY
I don't see it happening in my lifetime.


God Bless Our Troops

Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster] #4803868
07/03/18 09:45 AM
07/03/18 09:45 AM
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 20,564
MA, Mittelfranken.de
Trav Offline
Trav  Offline
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 20,564
MA, Mittelfranken.de
I hope sooner than later but realistically its going time, technology for batteries needs lots of development work to extend range and current draw, the infrastructure also will take years to be viable if electric is to become the norm and not the exception.

I wish they would work on safer nuclear power, that would solve so many problems but unfortunately lobbying is legal (IMO it should be a felony punishable by imprisonment for bribing politicians like that) and the gas, oil and oil companies wont allow that to happen at any cost as long as 10c worth of oil is in the ground.
Fossil fuels are a horror that needs to be minimized. I am no environmental nut job but we do live in a polluted world and IMHO there is not need to add more to it than we really have to. No don't throw the A/C units out. LOL

Edit: Pleas do not run with post as a political or environmental agenda driven subject, its just my opinion right or wrong.

Last edited by Trav; 07/03/18 09:47 AM.

ASE L1, Master. Deutsch Meisterbrief.
Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster] #4803872
07/03/18 09:48 AM
07/03/18 09:48 AM
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 1,973
VW Fanboy Island
maxdustington Online content
maxdustington  Online Content
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 1,973
VW Fanboy Island
The technology exists/has existed. Batteries are the only thing that has not taken a quantum leap in the last 20-30 years. You could argue lithium batteries, but they are not than much better than lead acid.

As long as there is oil in the ground we will never see electric cars. Too much money to be made with fossil fuels, the same reason we do not have synthetic gasoline.

Every piece of technology has come a LONG way in the last 20-30 years, but we are still burning fossil fuels like it is 1935.


03 Jetta AWP/09A 205k kms
Edge 0W40 + Mann 719/30
Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster] #4803890
07/03/18 10:12 AM
07/03/18 10:12 AM
Joined: Aug 2004
Posts: 2,012
5600 feet elevation, Arizona
double vanos Offline
double vanos  Offline
Joined: Aug 2004
Posts: 2,012
5600 feet elevation, Arizona
When uptopia happens: electric cars have same range as the current gas cars, electric cars can be refueled in the same amount of time as gas cars, and finally, the electricity for the cars comes from solar fields.

Is it impossible? No. But it will take time to get there. The internal combustion engine has been under active development for roughly 118 years. With todays computing power, Id guess itll happen in half that time. Thered be no reason to go for a gas car at that point.

Now turbine engines, thatll take a much longer time, if ever.


Sabine Schmitz is the Queen of the 'Ring; Svetlana Kapanina is the Queen of the SKIES...
Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster] #4803895
07/03/18 10:19 AM
07/03/18 10:19 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 8,012
Canuck living in California
KrisZ Online content
KrisZ  Online Content
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 8,012
Canuck living in California
Those that seek Utopia usually find misery. What's even worse is that during their noble quest they will cause misery to countless other innocent people that just want to go about their lives.


2015 Dodge Grand Caravan-27k miles.
2006 Mazda 3-163k miles
Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster] #4803914
07/03/18 10:36 AM
07/03/18 10:36 AM
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 7,097
Michigan
A_Harman Offline
A_Harman  Offline
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 7,097
Michigan
Originally Posted By: buster
How long do you think it will take before the majority of cars no longer use combustion engines and electric is the norm?


It will always be a constant 10 years away, same as it's been since 1912. They keep depending on the Big Battery Breakthrough. Nature is against it because there is no good way to store electricity. People keep talking about electric cars as though they are "new" technology. They're not. The electric storage battery was invented in 1803. The electric motor was invented in 1832. The Otto engine was invented in 1876. The Diesel engine was invented in 1893. Despite the head start of decades for electrical propulsion technology, internal combustion engines took over for automotive propulsion because it is just better technology for the application.

Last edited by A_Harman; 07/03/18 10:38 AM.

1985 Z51 Corvette track car
2002 Camaro Z28 LS1/6-speed
2001 Dodge Ram 2500 diesel
1972 GMC 1500 shortbed project truck
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