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#4803841 - 07/03/18 10:09 AM When will the combustion engine be obsolete?
buster Offline


Registered: 11/16/02
Posts: 30506
Loc: NJ
How long do you think it will take before the majority of cars no longer use combustion engines and electric is the norm?
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#4803847 - 07/03/18 10:15 AM Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster]
dlundblad Offline


Registered: 09/30/13
Posts: 10193
Loc: Indiana
Seeing how Tesla isn't doing good financially and is the main producer of all electric cars, probably a long time.

Hybrids? At the moment, I'm guessing less than 10% of vehicles produced in the world are hybrid.
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#4803849 - 07/03/18 10:16 AM Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster]
CT8 Offline


Registered: 10/09/14
Posts: 11230
Loc: Idaho
When we have an infrastructure large enough to prove the power needed to charge the batteries. I worked one electric forklifts for many years. Electric vehicles are nice. Battery recharging is the hard point. Even with regen braking the batteries still needed to be changed or recharged each shift.
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#4803850 - 07/03/18 10:16 AM Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster]
TmanP Offline


Registered: 10/30/15
Posts: 439
Loc: MN
This, in my opinion, is one of those things that will (for the next few decades) be pushed out and pushed out.
My guess is that the equilibrium point will be sometime in 30-60 years. But gas and diesel engines will still be relevant for a good while thereafter. I think that a big issue is that much of our power is generated by coal and is probably dirtier than a gas engine, plus the power has to be transmitted. In my opinion, cars are already remarkably efficient: a midsized car, for example, can travel a mile on 4 ounces (1/2 cup) of gas. That's pretty incredible. So you will see more and more electric cars in the coming decades but it's not like in 2025 cars will be half electric already. So, short answer, I'd guess at least several decades before they become a majority. (Plus the average age of a car is something like 11-12 years.)
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#4803852 - 07/03/18 10:21 AM Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster]
skyactiv Offline


Registered: 03/02/13
Posts: 4501
Loc: The Midwest
Not in our lifetime. Is the USAF going to have battery operated fighter craft?
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#4803853 - 07/03/18 10:22 AM Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster]
KrisZ Offline


Registered: 12/23/06
Posts: 7508
Loc: Toronto, Canada
By free market forces, probably not for the next 100 years, by legislation, it can happen tomorrow.
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#4803855 - 07/03/18 10:25 AM Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster]
Reddy45 Offline


Registered: 08/15/08
Posts: 3025
Loc: USA
"Why can't everything that works die off so we can use shiny new things already?"

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#4803857 - 07/03/18 10:27 AM Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster]
JLTD Offline


Registered: 12/15/17
Posts: 836
Loc: US
IMO two things need to happen:

1) Better power storage; today's batteries in most cases cannot rival a tank of gas for range.

2) Less oil; mankind has a propensity to not make changes until forced to do so.

That said, Elon Musk is slightly ahead of his time; with his network of charging stations you can drive a Tesla coast to coast. If he keeps it running a few more years I may buy one...pricing is the concern right now for most folks.
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#4803860 - 07/03/18 10:30 AM Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster]
tig1 Offline


Registered: 01/03/09
Posts: 13723
Loc: Illinois
I hope not in my lifetime. You younger guys are on your own.
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#4803861 - 07/03/18 10:30 AM Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster]
demarpaint Offline


Registered: 07/03/05
Posts: 30013
Loc: NY
I don't see it happening in my lifetime.
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#4803868 - 07/03/18 10:45 AM Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster]
Trav Offline


Registered: 11/20/06
Posts: 19314
Loc: MA, Mittelfranken.de
I hope sooner than later but realistically its going time, technology for batteries needs lots of development work to extend range and current draw, the infrastructure also will take years to be viable if electric is to become the norm and not the exception.

I wish they would work on safer nuclear power, that would solve so many problems but unfortunately lobbying is legal (IMO it should be a felony punishable by imprisonment for bribing politicians like that) and the gas, oil and oil companies wont allow that to happen at any cost as long as 10c worth of oil is in the ground.
Fossil fuels are a horror that needs to be minimized. I am no environmental nut job but we do live in a polluted world and IMHO there is not need to add more to it than we really have to. No don't throw the A/C units out. LOL

Edit: Pleas do not run with post as a political or environmental agenda driven subject, its just my opinion right or wrong.


Edited by Trav (07/03/18 10:47 AM)
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#4803872 - 07/03/18 10:48 AM Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster]
maxdustington Offline


Registered: 01/21/17
Posts: 886
Loc: Toronna
The technology exists/has existed. Batteries are the only thing that has not taken a quantum leap in the last 20-30 years. You could argue lithium batteries, but they are not than much better than lead acid.

As long as there is oil in the ground we will never see electric cars. Too much money to be made with fossil fuels, the same reason we do not have synthetic gasoline.

Every piece of technology has come a LONG way in the last 20-30 years, but we are still burning fossil fuels like it is 1935.
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#4803890 - 07/03/18 11:12 AM Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster]
double vanos Offline


Registered: 08/05/04
Posts: 1914
Loc: 5600 feet elevation, Arizona
When uptopia happens: electric cars have same range as the current gas cars, electric cars can be refueled in the same amount of time as gas cars, and finally, the electricity for the cars comes from solar fields.

Is it impossible? No. But it will take time to get there. The internal combustion engine has been under active development for roughly 118 years. With today’s computing power, I’d guess it’ll happen in half that time. There’d be no reason to go for a gas car at that point.

Now turbine engines, that’ll take a much longer time, if ever.
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#4803895 - 07/03/18 11:19 AM Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster]
KrisZ Offline


Registered: 12/23/06
Posts: 7508
Loc: Toronto, Canada
Those that seek Utopia usually find misery. What's even worse is that during their noble quest they will cause misery to countless other innocent people that just want to go about their lives.
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#4803914 - 07/03/18 11:36 AM Re: When will the combustion engine be obsolete? [Re: buster]
A_Harman Offline


Registered: 10/01/10
Posts: 6950
Loc: Michigan
Originally Posted By: buster
How long do you think it will take before the majority of cars no longer use combustion engines and electric is the norm?


It will always be a constant 10 years away, same as it's been since 1912. They keep depending on the Big Battery Breakthrough. Nature is against it because there is no good way to store electricity. People keep talking about electric cars as though they are "new" technology. They're not. The electric storage battery was invented in 1803. The electric motor was invented in 1832. The Otto engine was invented in 1876. The Diesel engine was invented in 1893. Despite the head start of decades for electrical propulsion technology, internal combustion engines took over for automotive propulsion because it is just better technology for the application.


Edited by A_Harman (07/03/18 11:38 AM)
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