Looking into the crystal ball for Airbus

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Airbus is in a difficult financial time currently and their decision making over the last decade or so is mostly to blame.

Airbus bet the farm on proliferation of the traditional "Hub and Spoke" system going into the future by engineering the A380. Billions were spent on the project, while Boeing bet on more Point-to-Point development within the airline industry with the creation of the widebody 787. Obviously, Boeing was right and the A380 will likely never be profitable for Airbus.

Airbus then spent tons of money on the A350 to compete with Boeing's 787, offering superb fuel efficiency (though still less efficient than the 787) and higher capacity. However, they were 8 years or so late to the game. Boeing already had a significant backorder for the 787 and even though the A350 has hit the market, many airlines are choosing to stick with the cheaper 787. This is not surprising as the 787 is cheaper and many airlines already have the infrastructure for the 787 and purchasing the more expensive A350 would also require Airlines to spend much, much more on building the infrastructure for accommodating that aircraft as well (pilot training, parts stores, line maintenance training, etc.).

Airbus, while the A350 was under development was feeling a lot of pressure to address that market quickly and were beset with setbacks on the development of the 350. So, they decided to re-engine the A330- creating the A330NEO (New Engine Option), which would make the aircraft more efficient to operate. However, the A330 was roughly 10 years old by that time and Airlines were more than hesitant to purchase a replacement aircraft for theirs when theirs were still fairly new. Not surprisingly, Airbus has fielded 0 orders for the A330NEO.

Orders for the A321 were revived a bit when Airbus re-engined that airframe, creating the A321NEO. While this has been a profitable maneuver for Airbus, the market wherein the A321 competes in is dominated by Boeing's 737 family of aircraft. It seems difficult to envision Airbus carving out a bigger market share then they have already, which will limit the sales performance of the A321NEO.

All of this has left Airbus in a vulnerable and cash-strapped position and Boeing smells blood in the water. Boeing is cutting prices on the 787 and 737 MAX airframes, while soon introducing a 757 replacement- a high demand airframe and one that Airbus has yet to address (at least they haven't yet announced plans for any new airframe to address this market demand). While they certainly are struggling, it seems unlikely that Airbus will be allowed to go under especially with Airbus's military contracts. So, if needed, who do you think would swoop in and save the conglomerate?
 
Airbus has significant government ownership, nothing tells me that will change should they need additional operating capital - EU will step in.
Could the gov't involvement be part of their difficulties right now?...major wrong bets, late to market with competitive product....
 
Originally Posted By: Danno
Airbus has significant government ownership, nothing tells me that will change should they need additional operating capital - EU will step in.
Could the gov't involvement be part of their difficulties right now?...major wrong bets, late to market with competitive product....

The WTO has cracked down on subsidies to Airbus, so I'm not sure how much the EU will be able to step in for them in the future.
 
Interesting topic. The A380 would have never gotten off the ground had it not been for Emirates and their huge purchase of that plane. Many of the smaller airlines like Qantas and Malaysian to name a couple are trying to get rid of them.

The Boeing Dreamliner series, even with the shaky start is a huge force especially in international travel. They are perfect for the “long and slim” routes and passengers preferences are more to nonstop flights these days.
 
Originally Posted By: JustN89

The WTO has cracked down on subsidies to Airbus, so I'm not sure how much the EU will be able to step in for them in the future.

Would subsidies be defined as additional state purchased equity?
 
The problem with the A380 and such is that airports have not kept up with them. The processing of thousands of passengers and baggage at the same time is big hurdle. I used to work in the airline business and I can assure you that no one is fond of big jets unless they offer the level of confort of Emirate & Etihad. That's for the people who KNOW how to travel. The cost of travel and the mean were accounted for in the travel cost and you vacation began when you boarded the plane. These days the unsophisticated traveller considers the vacation starting only upon arrival and are willing to put up with enormous discomfort, lack of service and sometime abuse to save a few dollars. Nobody is asking with these low fares are they doing preventive maintenance or only remedial one. The result is that smaller airplanes and often not jets, but turbo-props are servicing various cities and some cities have lost all air service.

I would not want to fly over water with only 2 engines, A380 has 4, the engine reduction was done at the request of airlines to save money on purchase & crew and to do so the safety laws had to be amended. In short whether A380 would succeed or fail (unlikely) may rest in the hands of the traveller.
 
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Boeing is having a better year and this may continue for a few years until things change. But not all doom and gloom for Airbus. And only European governments will bail out Airbus which is not at this time needing saving. These things go in cycles.

Also of note, Airbus is under scrutiny for bribery and has significant turnover in top executives, probably in an attempt to clean out those connected with bribery so that the ongoing management can claim they are clean. This diverts attention from managing the company to defending the company from investigation. This scandal may also restrict the ability of Airbus to assist in finance of some sales.

Just a year or two ago, Boeing was seen as at a disadvantage.

Airbus has a big seller in the A321neo cash cow. The competing B737-10 is not quite equal in passenger capacity and is not yet in production so A321neo should sell well. The competing B737-8Max is larger its closest competitor, the A320neo, so that should be a close contest. Both B737-7Max and A319neo will sell poorly as they are too small for the current market. In narrow bodies, Airbus has a problematic engine in the Pratt Whitney GTF also known as PW1100G-JM which powers about half of the A319-320-321Neo family. This is highly fuel efficient and not offered on the B737Max. The other A320 family engine is the CFM Leap made in partnership with GE and Safran. The Pratt GTF engines still have mechanical problems that are not yet solved. Likely this will be solved over years as technical solutions and manufacturing catch up. Today, this means Airbus cannot deliver as many A319-320-321Neo family models as the number of airframes they can make due to lack of engines.

Airbus has orders for the A330-900neo although none for the A330-800neo and has had to reduce planned production levels. Single source engine from Rolls Royce might put some buyers off. Rolls Royce is having severe problems with engines powering some B787 models and some speculate that Rolls might have problems in other lines due to the severity of engine problems although the A330neo engine is not the same as in the B787.

The B787 has overcome extreme manufacturing problems and has benefited from redesign and maturation of processes so new ones cost much less to make than in years past. The 787-9 and 787-10 have significant parts commonality and benefit from redesign for lower manufacturing cost and higher selling prices relative to the 787-8. Prices are competitive with the A330neo series.

The A350 has very good fuel economy but it is sized to replace the B777-300ER and others. B777-300ER is mostly too young to need replacement now so that and relatively low fuel prices would reduce the need for replacements now. A350 has some supply chain bottlenecks limiting production.

As noted, the A380 is not right sized for many routes and sells poorly. By the time airport congestion calls for large numbers of A380's, new technology might make a new design of this size a better way to go than the old design A380.

The rumored Boeing MMA aircraft between the A320 and B787-8 in size has not been finalized.

Airbus will survive. I don't feel sorry for them. It is a business. They lived on government dole for so long. Fair and open competition is good. Subsidies not so good.
 
Originally Posted By: Danno
Originally Posted By: JustN89

The WTO has cracked down on subsidies to Airbus, so I'm not sure how much the EU will be able to step in for them in the future.

Would subsidies be defined as additional state purchased equity?

Hard to answer as there hasn't been a formal definition given on the issue. Also, given the structure of Airbus, it is difficult to predict which countries could and could not afford to keep Airbus afloat and which countries would be allowed to concede a larger portion of Airbus to those countries that could help Airbus financially.

From what the WTO has said regarding Boeing's allegation of illegal subsidies given to Airbus, that up to 80% of those subsidies given to Airbus were, in fact, illegal. They also found that every single aircraft that Airbus has brought to the market was illegally subsidized. That said, I would imagine that any further financial assistance from the EU would be hotly contested by Boeing (and possibly Embraer as well) and with the recent track record of WTO findings, Airbus might have to look elsewhere for a financial savior.
 
Because Airbus is supported by the government too many decisions are made by committees populated with members that in a free market would otherwise be flipping hamburgers or greeting Walmart customers at the door.

It's amazing that the Airbus engineers were able to make the A380 happen while shaking their heads and wondering who the fool was that not only thought up the idea but funded it as well. A project to build a smaller ultra-efficient very long-haul airliner was canceled. Monday morning quarterbacks point out that the canceled project would have been the better choice.
 
I'd suggest that you and the OP take a look at the out of control development costs that the 787 program sustained as it spiraled out of management control.
Even with its huge order book, this still looks to be a money losing program.
Airbus may have made the A380 happen, but Boeing chimed in with its very own new VLA program, the 747-8. This program was a pure waste of money on Boeing's part, with orders that didn't come close to covering development costs.
The A380 at least has a huge and rich carrier that has built its business model around the type.
The single aisle Airbus is the pick over the stretched 737s and always has been. Even way back when, UAL turned aside Boeing's 737-400 pitch and bought A320s and A319s instead, although United also operated a number of 737-300 and -500 models for a number of years, both of which we flew on, along with the earlier -200. This forced Boeing to develop the 737 NG (new wings and new empennage on the same old sixties type certificate), but that's another story.
The order books for the A32X NEO versus the 737 MAX tell the story clearly. The problems with the Pratt GTF engine are being worked through and this engine does offer a level of fuel efficiency not found in the warmed-over CFM-56 that the 737 is doomed to use simply because it cannot accommodate a larger fan engine, while the Airbus can.
Airbus is not now and never was a product of EU subsidies. Airbus builds very competitive aircraft and always has.
The opening post is a highly revisionist depiction of the current airliner market and the relative positions of Airbus and Boeing in it.
 
Another issue with the A380 is that airports had to plan and construct infrastructure for the aircraft. That limits to an extent where the plane can fly. Boeing on the other hand has kept aircraft dimensions and such that there is no special configuration needed. A good example is the new 777X with folding wings.
 
While I am not in commercial aviation, (business aviation is my world) I do see quite a culture that favors Boeing. In my world travels, I regularly hear good things about Boeing aircraft, and negative things about Airbus. I do wonder just how much this affects purchase decisions.
 
Originally Posted By: Cujet
While I am not in commercial aviation, (business aviation is my world) I do see quite a culture that favors Boeing. In my world travels, I regularly hear good things about Boeing aircraft, and negative things about Airbus. I do wonder just how much this affects purchase decisions.


Well, we do have a real live ATP on here who has repeatedly praised the A32X and panned the 737 stretch models.
OTOH, I have had the pleasure of speaking to deadheading or commuting ATPs on commercial flights, and many have stated a preference for BCA aircraft. Even some FAs have commented that they aren't fond of the weird hydraulic noises you get in the A32X aircraft.
Do airline managements listen to this and make purchase/lease plans accordingly?
Apparently not judging by the average neck to neck order and delivery numbers that Airbus and Boeing typically see.
One may pull ahead for a few years but the other then catches up as the leader becomes capacity constrained and delivery dates get pushed out too far.
Heck, if MD had put a few more dollars into the developments of the old DC-9 and had avoided the merger with Boeing, we might find ourselves flying around now and then on recently delivered MD90s.
 
I think I've been pretty fair - praising both Boeing and Airbus airplanes where deserved, and criticizing Boeing and Airbus airplanes where deserved.

A lot of the points in this thread have been made (including by me) over the years.

Fundamentally, when Boeing was developing what was to become the 787, Airbus was developing the A-380. Both aircraft were based on a market analysis in roughly 2000. Boeing foresaw longer range, point to point flying, with medium size airplanes. Airbus foresaw ever-larger airplanes moving people from hub to hub.

Boeing called the market correctly.

Now, we (my airline) will get the A-350 in two years. That airplane was developed with input from one of Airbus' largest customers: ILFC. That airplane looks to be well-positioned in the market, delivered on time, and meeting customer expectations. A good jet.

I hope I get a chance to fly it.
 
So you knew exactly who I was thinking about when I wrote that post?
Never meant to imply that you weren't fair in calling them like you see them.
I was mainly thinking in terms of the opening post, which was all roses and puppies for Boeing and darkness with poison ivy for Airbus when everyone knows that not to be the case.
I will say again that Boeing will make about as much money on the 787 as Airbus will on the A380, and Boeing did spend plenty of money developing the DOA 747-8, so Boeing also apparently thought that there was a VLA market that needed to be addressed.
The A380 does have a huge and rich airline on its side, although that is very much a two-edged sword.
The A350 appears to be doing well, although it should be noted that ILFC is not actually a customer but is rather an intermediary. Airlines acquire and operate airliners. Leasing companies merely offer a financing option.
You are well aware that Boeing and Airbus have been trading places in the orders and deliveries race for decades now and both have built some bum products. Just as an example, why Boeing decided to complete the development of the MD95 and then offer it as the 717 is a mystery to me. Why Airbus bothered with the A340-500 and -600 models is a mystery as well, since the handwriting was already on the wall, as written by the 777.
Still, I find myself flying in the products of both enterprises along with those of a few others and these aircraft always get me to where I'm going with no problems.
Modern air travel is a wonderful thing, cheap, easy and reliable.
 
I took no offense, but I reckoned it was me...

I don’t disagree with anything you’ve said, some of the decisions, by both companies, leave me scratching my head.

As a Boeing fan, and a shareholder, I would like to see them succeed. The 787 is a great airplane, but it was a debacle of production. It was so late, had teething problems, cost over runs, etc. Boeing’s great “global production”experiment was an abject failure in many respects.

But it’s here, now, and meeting performance goals. The order book is impressive.

Word on the street is that the NMA (new midsize airplane, a 757 replacement) will be “in-sourced” to avoid many of the 787 problems.

But I am unlikely to ever fly it. I retire in 2028. Airplane development now is a hideous process, so overly complicated, and Byzantine, with so many ways to fail...

I’m very happy with my 757/767. Great performer, well made, awesome destinations. Long in the tooth? Sure.

So was the F-14 when I flew it and I still love that jet, too...
 
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I'm a Boeing fan and shareholder too.
The stock has done impressively well in recent years.
Makes me wonder if my pessimism about the 787 program as well as the new 777X developments might be a little mistaken.
 
Originally Posted By: Astro14


Now, we (my airline) will get the A-350 in two years. That airplane was developed with input from one of Airbus' largest customers: ILFC. That airplane looks to be well-positioned in the market, delivered on time, and meeting customer expectations. A good jet.

I hope I get a chance to fly it.

One of my goals before I settle down is to travel internationally, and I'll be a happy man if I get to fly on a 788/789 or a A350.

It seems like Airbus besides the A380 and perhaps A400 albatrosses has their bread and butter on the A320 series, it seems like the defacto plane for the Asian LCCs but the two biggest ones in the world, well if Southwest still counts as an LCC flies 737s all day. I think Airbus was trying too hard to woo SQ/QF/EK/AF/CX/KE/LH as well as FedEx and UPS to buy the A380.

I've also read an article that Thai Airways is also going after Rolls-Royce for bribery over engine engine contracts, and the most recent long-haul Airbus planes naturally come with Rolls-Royce engines. They fly A330s and A380s.
 
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