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Autopilot Maturity #4713726
04/02/18 12:28 AM
04/02/18 12:28 AM
Joined: May 2009
Posts: 2,233
WA (USA)
Y_K Offline OP
Y_K  Offline OP
Joined: May 2009
Posts: 2,233
WA (USA)


"This forum talking about 4wd systems is like when other forums talk about oil." © 2018 FlyPenFly
Re: Autopilot Maturity [Re: Y_K] #4713729
04/02/18 12:49 AM
04/02/18 12:49 AM
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 673
Northern California
ediamiam Offline
ediamiam  Offline
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 673
Northern California
Still not mature technology and requires situational awareness of the driver. The Tesla driver wasn't paying attention. I thought I read somewhere the driver had a similar glitch at the same spot but retained control and had complained of glitches in the auto pilot software.

Re: Autopilot Maturity [Re: Y_K] #4713810
04/02/18 06:18 AM
04/02/18 06:18 AM
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 3,791
New England
madRiver Offline
madRiver  Offline
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 3,791
New England
Originally Posted By: Y_K


You need to be educated . Volvo does not have auto pilot software or ability. Furthermore the Volvo auto braking safety feature/system that likely would have saved the pedestrian was disabled by Uber.

Uber was testing:running its own system for auto pilot inwhat happened to be a Volvo. I concur that the Uber system clearly not ready for prime time. However you cannot associate Volvo with it.


Re: Autopilot Maturity [Re: Y_K] #4713820
04/02/18 06:41 AM
04/02/18 06:41 AM
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,876
'Stralia
Shannow Online content
Shannow  Online Content
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,876
'Stralia
All of Tesla's blah blah excuses.

Couldn't "See" a semi trailer as there was clear air under the trailer. Driver having hands off the wheel for 6 seconds, and should have been paying attention are all excuses for product testing in the real world, with other people's lives to use as learning points.

It, their driver into the semi trailer are all great to blame the "driver", when clearly their "auto pilot" can't "pilot", even on the Telsa picked sections of road that it's enabled on.

Was nice of them to have such an egress friendly accident performance however...

Uber, same thing...first, release the video that showed the "driver" texting, when the computer should have seen clearly what the person with the bicycle was crossing the road, whole lanes before not slowing before strike.

Re: Autopilot Maturity [Re: Y_K] #4713829
04/02/18 06:50 AM
04/02/18 06:50 AM
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 7,427
Jupiter, Florida
Cujet Offline
Cujet  Offline
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 7,427
Jupiter, Florida
The fact is, humans and autopilots are going to make different kinds of mistakes. We can "hone" autopilot technology over time. We cannot improve the typical driver, even with drastic measures.

In the aviation world, pilots have been trained to absurdity, yet continue to make the same mistakes they've always made. The crash rate remains relatively unchanged over the last 60 years.

HOWEVER, I've been driving for 40 years and I'm still alive. The autopilot killed this guy 6 seconds after he took his hands off the wheel. Self driving cars are NOWHERE near ready.


People who count on their fingers should maintain a discreet silence.
Re: Autopilot Maturity [Re: Cujet] #4713836
04/02/18 07:03 AM
04/02/18 07:03 AM
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,876
'Stralia
Shannow Online content
Shannow  Online Content
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,876
'Stralia
Aircraft autopilots have a limited set of things that they have to get right...x, y, z, and a limited number of things in the way...

Cars, have a virtually infinitely changing environment that even the same path day to day will need thousands of different scenarios run and solved for today's variables.

Impossible to pre-emptively programme for, the most sound systems look like engaging "deep learning", from tagging along with experienced drivers, and developing the "instinct" ...same as we teach people, tagging along with an experienced doer/mentor.

Scary part is that we can never find out why these self learning programmes do what they do...same systems in medicine can pre-diagnose mental illness episodes. No-one will ever find out why.

But the current systems are dumb...as smart as the programmer thinks he is.

Re: Autopilot Maturity [Re: Shannow] #4713847
04/02/18 07:13 AM
04/02/18 07:13 AM
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 7,427
Jupiter, Florida
Cujet Offline
Cujet  Offline
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 7,427
Jupiter, Florida
Originally Posted By: Shannow
Aircraft autopilots have a limited set of things that they have to get right...x, y, z, and a limited number of things in the way...

Cars, have a virtually infinitely changing environment


That's correct, in fact the term "autopilot" is not even close to accurate for cars. I prefer the term "self driving cars". (NOTE: current gen aircraft autopilots are exceptionally capable and can autoland million pound aircraft)

Nor can a self driving car make a moral judgement, such as whether to careen off the road, into a playground on the right or sidewalk on the left. Humans can, and regularly make these judgements instantly.


People who count on their fingers should maintain a discreet silence.
Re: Autopilot Maturity [Re: Y_K] #4713850
04/02/18 07:17 AM
04/02/18 07:17 AM
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,876
'Stralia
Shannow Online content
Shannow  Online Content
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,876
'Stralia
That last point is immaculate, and one that I hadn't considered ever.

Re: Autopilot Maturity [Re: Cujet] #4713884
04/02/18 08:20 AM
04/02/18 08:20 AM
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 6,994
Texas
4WD Online confused
4WD  Online Confused
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 6,994
Texas
Last year some young guys flew up behind us as we did 70 mph on the freeway (country areas) … you know, gonna be cool and whip their cheap sedan right by our rear bumper. Darn - an F150 barely ahead and they can’t slow so they shot a tiny gap between us and the car can’t handle. So now they are doing ~70 mph SIDEWAYS … blue smoke pouring off of all 4 tires!!!
So my microprocessor is going “heavy lean, roll over potential, F150 now blocks my left, side road culvert on right … another pickup close behind me …
Braking is all I had for a split second ~ but knew that car would of gone airborne, or launched parts or debris and right after the culvert I was going to put mine in the grass to the right … (gentle slope …progressive shoulder … ground was very soft from heavy rains, I knew my angle would not be severe) … All of that info passed my mind …
Fortunately the sedan flew into a wide grass median to the left and never rolled …the soft soil spared these punks …

Would the autonomous car have had my contingency plan?

Re: Autopilot Maturity [Re: Y_K] #4713906
04/02/18 08:56 AM
04/02/18 08:56 AM
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 490
New York
NoNameJoe Offline
NoNameJoe  Offline
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 490
New York
Quote:
That's correct, in fact the term "autopilot" is not even close to accurate for cars.

Agreed. I think the name is actually a poor choice. I suspect the reason they chose that name was because it was similar to how an airplane autopilot works, the airplane autopilot will also delegate control back to the pilot in unforeseen circumstances.

The problem is, pilots are experienced, trained and they're professionals. The likelihood they will be doing stupid things behind the controls is extremely slim. They know they have a serious responsibility and that they have to be ready at all times.

Contrast that to the stupidity of Tesla drivers, watching movies, being totally asleep at the wheel, they don't appear to care about the danger they pose to everyone else on the road.

They should choose a different name like "driving assist".


2015 Civic LX Coupe
Re: Autopilot Maturity [Re: Y_K] #4713915
04/02/18 09:11 AM
04/02/18 09:11 AM
Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 1,194
New York City
SeaJay Offline
SeaJay  Offline
Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 1,194
New York City
Human nature being what it is, as the software matures, folks will pay less and less attention to the road while taking care of various other tasks such as texting, email, surfing the net, zoning out, etc. I see then doing these things as a greater and greater portion of the time as these things mature.

Not sure if it will be better with the self driving software, or as it is now with folks texting, etc. It will be interesting.

Re: Autopilot Maturity [Re: Y_K] #4713930
04/02/18 09:28 AM
04/02/18 09:28 AM
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 3,218
Wet side WA
JohnnyJohnson Online content
JohnnyJohnson  Online Content
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 3,218
Wet side WA
All cars have recalls. Autopilot no thanks I'll kill myself I don't need this kind of help for me or my family.


2004 Corolla 124786
Out: VML 5w-30 TG4967 OCI 5007 Miles
In: EDGE EP 5W-30 Bosch 3311 122537 7-18-18
2006 Duramax 74277
Out: T6 5W-40 M1-303
In: T6 5W-40 XG9100 74705 4-22-18
Re: Autopilot Maturity [Re: 4WD] #4713941
04/02/18 09:34 AM
04/02/18 09:34 AM
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 7,427
Jupiter, Florida
Cujet Offline
Cujet  Offline
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 7,427
Jupiter, Florida
Originally Posted By: 4WD
Last year some young guys flew up behind us as we did 70 mph on the freeway (country areas) … you know, gonna be cool and whip their cheap sedan right by our rear bumper. Darn - an F150 barely ahead and they can’t slow so they shot a tiny gap between us and the car can’t handle. So now they are doing ~70 mph SIDEWAYS … blue smoke pouring off of all 4 tires!!!

Exactly, a defensive driver may anticipate that out of control vehicle's dynamics correctly. Those 4 smoking tires might obscure a camera, but a good driver knows what's happening next! Furthermore, a good driver avoids being in the vicinity of idiots on the road. Let's see your camera based system do that.

Re: Autopilot Maturity [Re: Cujet] #4713997
04/02/18 10:19 AM
04/02/18 10:19 AM
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,434
Soviet State of Washington
PimTac Online content
PimTac  Online Content
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,434
Soviet State of Washington
Originally Posted By: Cujet
“Exactly, a defensive driver may anticipate that out of control vehicle's dynamics correctly. Those 4 smoking tires might obscure a camera, but a good driver knows what's happening next! Furthermore, a good driver avoids being in the vicinity of idiots on the road. Let's see your camera based system do that.”

This is a key point. A good driver doesn’t just concentrate on the vehicles just ahead but scans the roadway up ahead. On a freeway when I see brake lights half a mile ahead I am already backing off the throttle and checking my spacing. Many drivers will speed on past only to slam on the brakes which shows they were not aware. Self driving systems are not this smart and this is just one scenario out of many.

Re: Autopilot Maturity [Re: Y_K] #4714008
04/02/18 10:33 AM
04/02/18 10:33 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 7,650
Toronto, Canada
KrisZ Offline
KrisZ  Offline
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 7,650
Toronto, Canada
A good driver usually does not stay glued to their smartphone while driving.

I'd like to think that I'm a fairly competent driver and it took me roughly 30 minutes behind the Model S and it's autopilot to realize that it has some serious shortcomings and should not be left unattended.

Fact that so many people blindly put their lives in the hands of a beta tester program tells me that they're pretty bad driver to begin with and can't determine good driving characteristics from bad ones.


2015 Dodge Grand Caravan-27k miles.
2006 Mazda 3-163k miles
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