Peak Oil Date

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The Bank of America Merril Lynch has released an article today predicting that Peak Oil Demand will occur during the year 2030, when 40% of all new vehicles will be electrically powered. That's 12 years from now. How do you think that stacks up? Do you think they will be accurate in their prediction?

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WTHK.

I don’t put much if any faith in predictions. We were supposed to be in a ice age twenty years ago.

A lot of this stuff is guesswork of the Extreme kind.
 
There was also an article I think back in the mid 50's... where Peak Oil was supposed to have occurred sometime long before the year 2000. It's just a way to keep the prices high and the oil mafia at the top of the money food chain. It was written by several oil company engineers... and was obviously bunk. Just as I believe this one is. I'm willing to bet that BOAML is heavily invested in XOM, RDS, Marathon, etc etc etc... if it was a dying industry would they place their personal financial futures on it?
 
I'll believe this when I see it. Electric cars while being a good aren't ready for prime time unless there is a major breakthrough in battery technology.
 
The "peak oil" theory assumes that oil supply drives oil demand, actually it is the opposite.

No one in the oil business will admit that an excess of supply exists, for that would drive prices down.
 
Originally Posted By: mk378
The "peak oil" theory assumes that oil supply drives oil demand, actually it is the opposite.

No one in the oil business will admit that an excess of supply exists, for that would drive prices down.


Actually, Bank of America is talking about Peak Demand instead of Peak oil, just like you mentioned.
 
Originally Posted By: SubieRubyRoo
There was also an article I think back in the mid 50's... where Peak Oil was supposed to have occurred sometime long before the year 2000. It's just a way to keep the prices high and the oil mafia at the top of the money food chain. It was written by several oil company engineers... and was obviously bunk. Just as I believe this one is. I'm willing to bet that BOAML is heavily invested in XOM, RDS, Marathon, etc etc etc... if it was a dying industry would they place their personal financial futures on it?


Actually Bank of America is talking about Peak Demand, not Peak supply as we are more used to hearing about.
 
Peak Oil is a joke.
Just like MK378 stated would the oil companies ever let out we will never use all the oil.
It's a drive to keep oil prices high and justify it.
They make they same profit regardless of the oil use.
Sell less gas, more per gallon. Less costs for them.
Always look who benefits from such talk and then take that with a teaspoon of skepticism.
 
Originally Posted By: mk378

No one in the oil business will admit that an excess of supply exists, for that would drive prices down.

Demand with respect to supply determines prices. Prices are what the public will pay.

If it became "known" (to JoeSixpack that supply is infinite..'olJoe might buy a gas guzzler along with the rest of the Joes: so demand goes up (supply stays the same) and so do prices.
 
Depends on what the oil companies and nations do to promote the demand of oil. Lots of developing nations will get better and start using more oil, and when they get wealthier they will want an SUV instead of an econobox.

And they'll want better quality of life instead of more kids.
 
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Originally Posted By: JohnnyJohnson
Electric cars outrageous make up their hoping!

Look at the price on the Chevy Dolt!


When you look at long term prices things may be different.

Wireless phones, cameras, flash memories, computers, cars were all expensive yet end up as commodity and worthlessly cheap. A battery researcher I knew told me there's nothing prevent battery from going cheap other than production and R&D scale. She said when we run out of lithium we can easily go sodium to get cost performance ratio inline, and you know we'll never run out of sodium.
 
Originally Posted By: FermeLaPorte
I think that cars should be hydrogen powered.


Great.

Where do you get hydrogen from?
(I mean, where can you source it COST EFFECTIVELY?)

I have yet to see any source of it where it isn't VERY energy intensive to make.
 
Where do we get the electricity from to charge the electric car?
Imagine the grid requirements and all the new power plants necessary to supply enough power for all those electric cars.
My electricity is now 17 cents per kwh on order to pay for all the nee wind turbines and power lines.

Electric power is some of the most inefficient (power line loss) and costly.
 
We still burn a bit of coal up here in Alberta. I know I can’t talk abut politics but our present provincial government wants to get rid of the last dozen or so plants. Meanwhile China plans to build thousands more. Sort of like having a no peeing section in a swimming pool. Converted to U.S. dollars we pay 8 cents per kWh. We are presently building natural gas cogen power plants and I hate to say it but our wind generators are working out not bad. Most of them are just north of the U.S border. The cost of power lines are the big issue there.
 
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Originally Posted By: Iowegian

My electricity is now 17 cents per kwh on order to pay for all the nee wind turbines and power lines.

Electric power is some of the most inefficient (power line loss) and costly.


I'm willing to bet that your increases are not exactly due to the wind turbines themselves, it has to do with the incentives and payment scales paid to the people/companies who are investing in the wind turbines. The "secret" is that the electric company pays/credits the energy producer an insane markup- in Indiana for example, if I put in a large PV array and "sold" the electricity surplus it to the power company thru a grid-tied inverter, the kWH credit I got is paid at $0.30/kWH, where as my electric cost is around $0.113/kWH. The money to pay out the credit comes thru increased rates to the end users, not the direct cost of the wind turbines and power lines.

Also, AC power is actually one of THE most efficient power sources we currently use- only DC power really has the power line loss and expensive cost... Edison really didn't have a clue and did his best to destroy and discredit the man that did have a clue... Nikola Tesla. Our world would likely not resemble anything we currently know if it had not been for Tesla.
 
Originally Posted By: Linctex
Where do you get hydrogen from?
(I mean, where can you source it COST EFFECTIVELY?)

I have yet to see any source of it where it isn't VERY energy intensive to make.

That of course is the worst problem, but there are others that make hydrogen a poor fuel choice for motor vehicles. Energy density is another problem as is storage. You'd really have to work hard to find another fuel that makes less sense for a vehicle than hydrogen.
 
Originally Posted By: SubieRubyRoo
Also, AC power is actually one of THE most efficient power sources we currently use- only DC power really has the power line loss and expensive cost... Edison really didn't have a clue and did his best to destroy and discredit the man that did have a clue... Nikola Tesla. Our world would likely not resemble anything we currently know if it had not been for Tesla.


I recall reading that there was a million volt DC transmission line someplace; at the end of the line they have a huge convertor to 60Hz.

One upshot to DC is no skin depth and no synchronization issues. Of course, I'm sure that a million volts brings its own set of issues...
 
Originally Posted By: PimTac
WTHK.

I don’t put much if any faith in predictions. We were supposed to be in a ice age twenty years ago.

A lot of this stuff is guesswork of the Extreme kind.


Yep those predictions are always crazy. I remember when I was a kid (mid 70s) I had a model of a "1984 Corvette" and it was this spaceship looking jet powered flying car. I guess by the 80s we were supposed to be driving flying cars,which would've been super cool though!!
 
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