Recent Topics
FORD S-MAX MOTOR OIL
by Maputocar. 12/11/18 02:54 AM
Rickman Metisse.
by Silk. 12/11/18 02:21 AM
UOA places
by OilUzer. 12/11/18 12:31 AM
question about kendall and schaeffer 15w40
by thejudges69. 12/10/18 09:39 PM
Apparently we made it on Amsoil?
by Marco620. 12/10/18 09:39 PM
Slight rust inside Carquest 85522
by A_User55555. 12/10/18 09:03 PM
Which AA battery brand is best?
by StevieC. 12/10/18 08:41 PM
HVAC-Evaporator Coil Question
by dkryan. 12/10/18 08:26 PM
EBAY $10 off $30 Members only
by Capt. 12/10/18 08:15 PM
Ran My First Full Road Marathon - Race Report!
by john_pifer. 12/10/18 07:33 PM
Atlas Pinnacle Pristine shingles
by gregk24. 12/10/18 07:24 PM
CZ-97B Warped Plastic Recoil Spring Guide Rod
by billt460. 12/10/18 07:19 PM
to buy or not to buy
by briggyman. 12/10/18 07:09 PM
Strange tire failure - w picture
by Cressida. 12/10/18 06:10 PM
Looking for a budget steam cleaner
by 2008wrx. 12/10/18 05:04 PM
3.3 V-6 in 2017-18 Santa Fe engine concerns?
by blupupher. 12/10/18 05:00 PM
(NEW) NAPA ProSelect 21060 Cut Open
by rooflessVW. 12/10/18 04:19 PM
True or false
by 53' Stude. 12/10/18 04:15 PM
Newest Members
ScvttH, Capt, Maputocar, ESTEBAN, Torch94
66645 Registered Users
Who's Online Now
61 registered members (2002 Maxima SE, 2K2AcuraTL, aba4430, 4WD, 2009Edge, 97f150, 8 invisible), 1,204 guests, and 35 spiders.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Forum Statistics
Forums67
Topics294,904
Posts4,924,015
Members66,645
Most Online2,553
Oct 27th, 2018
Donate to BITOG
Previous Thread
Next Thread
Print Thread
Hop To
Page 1 of 4 1 2 3 4
Self-fulfilling prophecies and cars #4600826
12/11/17 03:30 PM
12/11/17 03:30 PM
Joined: Mar 2016
Posts: 1,554
Toronto
PeterPolyol Offline OP
PeterPolyol  Offline OP
Joined: Mar 2016
Posts: 1,554
Toronto
This thread is about discussing the phenomenon of the self-fulfilling prophecy in the automotive world.

Let's look at those who purposefully go out of their way to obtain say, a Toyota Camry, with the intent of racking up the big miles. Clearly this customer's pro-bias to the model is influencing his vehicle purchase. The details about why this customer believes he can't do better than a Camry will be left alone, as we simply need only acknowledge for the purpose of this hypethetical that this type of phenomenon (brand preference based solely on subjective analysis and misleading information) is very common.

This customer picks up his late-model Camry at a slight premium compared to other comparable models, but that's okay because it's a '400k mile vehicle', our customer rationalizes. Immediately, he is informed about a handful of recalls on his brand-new purchase; BCM/ECM manufacturing defects, improper airbag calibration, improperly fastened knee-air bag inflator, faulty vehicle wiring on safety equip. (air bag/wiper), V6 engine valve spring defect resulting in dropped valve and lunched engine at low miles, excessive oil consuption resulting in total loss of crankcase oil etc (these are actual recalls and long-running issues for Camry's in the last 5 years, excl. 07-10 Camry's which have a combined total of 39 recalls in those 3 years alone). Remember, this is apparently the "most reliable model of car" according to marketing agencies(!)
But back to our hypothetic customer, all of these repairs are just fine for him. "I'm really impressed how Toyota has stepped up and taken responsibility by exceuting these recalls, I doubt (other brand X) would be so forthcoming. It's a small inconvenience for a 400K mile vehicle, and so a small inconvenience for me" he rationalizes. "You just can't beat all the positive press and water-cooler praise; Aunt Gertrude swore by her Camry". His car consumes oil considerably, and he raises the issue with the dealer at the next schedules oil change. Toyota tells him that 1qt/1000 miles is normal and acceptable and that "all Toyotas burn oil" (real quote from a Toyota Service Tech). Our endlessly faithful, gracious and merciful customer is not troubled in the least, because for him if a Toyota has these problems, imagine how much worse everything else must be!
Years pass and our friend makes sure to drive his long distances and keep adding a quart at every other fill up. "This car has been flawless!" he says. "After all of the recalls were taken care of, all I need to do is fill it with gas and oil and she just goes. Super-legendary bulletproof performance" he praises. At 250K his rad tank cracks and a problematic stalling, hard-start issue takes a few months to pin-point, but "that's okay just look at those miles of 'trouble free' performance" our customer continues. At long last he makes it to 300K, after replaceing struts and mounts and some front end compnents, water pump, VVT actuator as well as all related wear and tear items. He's just doing his PM he says and starts telling all of his friends how amazing and reliable his Camry is to have made it to 300K.

In this scenario, the preconditioning of the customer to "stick it out and remain insanely gracious" through the issues because he's "got a 300K vehicle" made the constant oil top offs (and the cost of quarts across 300K) seem like nothing but 'due dilligence' to our good customer. "Of course one must stay on top of maintenance if they want to make it to 300K" he says.

In the end, this customer insensibly fulfilled his own prophecy all because of brand psychology that has been inculcated.



On the other side of town, we have a teen delivering pizza in his Mitsubishi Lancer. His Lancer doesn't burn oil, and good thing too because our delivery man never checks his oil level. He doesn't care much what kind of car he's driving but it doesn't have any ECM/brake/engine recalls and so the issue never arises. At 250K his Lancer decides to crack a rad tank, lose all coolant, overheat and pop a head gasket. Never mind being 12K deep in his bulk conventional OCI. Our pizza delivery friend get's stranded during a delivery and loses his car and job. He hasn't the money to repair it, and "it's probably not worth it anyway" so he cuts his losses and off to the junk yards goes the Lancer. Our delivery friend tells all his friends how much Mitsubishi sucks "just look at their ratings on [ranking publication X]". His parents arent happy his car took a [censored] and will never buy a Mitsubishi again. Luckily they heard from a guy with a 300K Camry how reliable and legendary Toyotas are. His parents tell our delivery friend that they'll only sign on a better, more reliable car for him. And so they sign on a new Camry, but it just needs a few TSBs and recalls taken care of. No problem, 'it's a 400K mile car'.... and the cycle continues.

In this second instance, we can see how the self-fulfilling prophecy works inversely, yet still results in a favorable outcome for our heavily-publicized car company, due to nothing but brand psychology. The power of the mind is incredible, is it not? It's no wonder why so many entities spend billions to 'dominate' it. (Fun Fact: 'Domination' is the actual terminology of choice used in marketing to identify a successful influence campaign resulting in the control of the customer's behavior)

Thoughts?


Scambling for solutions is a hopelessly futile endeavour and potentially dangerous, without first coming to a solid, personal understanding of the problem. Beware riding the ideological hobby horse.
Re: Self-fulfilling prophecies and cars [Re: PeterPolyol] #4600835
12/11/17 03:49 PM
12/11/17 03:49 PM
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 11,077
Phoenix, AZ
Nick1994 Offline
Nick1994  Offline
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 11,077
Phoenix, AZ
You have too much time on your hands. Camrys havenít burned oil since the 2.4L in 2009, almost 10 model years ago.

And recalls? My auntís 2016 Avalon hasnít had a single recall.


2015 Hyundai Sonata 2.4L 88k Motorcraft Synthetic Blend 5w30 & OEM
2000 Toyota Camry 2.2L 231k Valvoline 5w30 & Fram Ultra
1996 Jeep Cherokee 4.0L 147k Mobil 1 HM 10w40 & Fram Ultra
Re: Self-fulfilling prophecies and cars [Re: PeterPolyol] #4600838
12/11/17 03:50 PM
12/11/17 03:50 PM
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 350
Kewaunee WI
2003f7 Offline
2003f7  Offline
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 350
Kewaunee WI
Very true!


2002 Ford Excursion 6.8
1998 Dodge Dakota 5.2
2018 Hyundai Tucson 1.6T
Re: Self-fulfilling prophecies and cars [Re: PeterPolyol] #4600842
12/11/17 03:54 PM
12/11/17 03:54 PM
Joined: Apr 2013
Posts: 1,784
NJ
gofast182 Offline
gofast182  Offline
Joined: Apr 2013
Posts: 1,784
NJ
Didn't we just put a similar ill-conceived thread to bed after 29+ pages of arguing and biases on both sides of the equation on display?


2006 S2000 - Berlina Black - PU 10w30, PCX-004
2017 340i xDrive - Black Sapphire - Dlr Fill, 114...898
2011 MDX Tech - Aspen White - Dlr Fill, PLM-A01
Re: Self-fulfilling prophecies and cars [Re: PeterPolyol] #4600846
12/11/17 04:03 PM
12/11/17 04:03 PM
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 3,385
Chicago,IL,USA
pandus13 Offline
pandus13  Offline
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 3,385
Chicago,IL,USA
didn't most people just drove a car to around 100k miles?
at the average of 12-15k miles per year, 300k miles would mean 20+ years.
Plastic + electronics cooking much?
maybe a worldwide airbag recall?


16 Golf SportWagen
13 Mazda5
08 Yaris
04 Elantra
95 accent
95 mystique
97 concorde
Re: Self-fulfilling prophecies and cars [Re: PeterPolyol] #4600851
12/11/17 04:22 PM
12/11/17 04:22 PM
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 7,674
Jupiter, Florida
Cujet Offline
Cujet  Offline
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 7,674
Jupiter, Florida
I clearly follow your reasoning. However, the assumption that the majority of Honda and Toyota owners are "fanboi's" and in essence, willing to lie, is patently absurd.

Does that explain why the Japanese automakers are in the top 6 slots with regard to long term reliability? Because only Japanese car owners are liars?

Or is it that American and European vehicles truly have more frequent and more expensive repairs?


People who count on their fingers should maintain a discreet silence.
Re: Self-fulfilling prophecies and cars [Re: PeterPolyol] #4600852
12/11/17 04:22 PM
12/11/17 04:22 PM
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 3,385
Chicago,IL,USA
pandus13 Offline
pandus13  Offline
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 3,385
Chicago,IL,USA
reply#2:(back on topic):
but but but, You have also all the other companies using targeted marketing in pretty much all available media.
So pretty much everybody sells (including VW and the granmas commercial).
I think in the end, we live in a region where we are blessed with a lot of options in certain vehicle classes.

Now, who's up for some eyecandy? is Toyo Jen back?


16 Golf SportWagen
13 Mazda5
08 Yaris
04 Elantra
95 accent
95 mystique
97 concorde
Re: Self-fulfilling prophecies and cars [Re: PeterPolyol] #4600859
12/11/17 04:33 PM
12/11/17 04:33 PM
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,472
NJ
Leo99 Offline
Leo99  Offline
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,472
NJ
Strange how you conflate recalls with reliability. It's just not that way. Recalls are to replace something safety related that hasn't broken yet. It's proactive. I'm all for that. People know cars will need repairs sooner or later. A free fix for something before it breaks is great! Better if you never need it but it's better than paying out of pocket of fix something.

There is also the value of a car. A Lancer with 250k miles is worth a lot less than a Camry with 250k miles and you also need to look at the general condition of the car before you decide to repair to junk it.


Without data you're just another person with an opinion. W. E. Deming

2003 Corolla 250,000 miles (RIP)
2004 Corolla 125,000 miles
2004 Rav4 370,000 miles
2015 Camry 70,000 miles
Re: Self-fulfilling prophecies and cars [Re: PeterPolyol] #4600862
12/11/17 04:38 PM
12/11/17 04:38 PM
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 3,512
Alberta, Canada
Smokescreen Offline
Smokescreen  Offline
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 3,512
Alberta, Canada
I bought my Corolla knowing I was going to mile it out. Fast forward to today and I have 225K miles (360K km) on the odo and the only repair I had done was a water pump under warranty. Just tires...and the oil...I don't have to add any in between intervals...car self-prophesy fulfilled?

I'll just keep living the lie I guess. coffee


13 Civic Si 2.4L- 69Kkms(43Kmi)-PP,Wix
05 LeSabre 3.8L-210Kkms(134Kmi)-PP,Wix
03 Sierra 2500 6.0L-204Kkms(127Kmi)-PP,Wix

All with mpg > EPA
Re: Self-fulfilling prophecies and cars [Re: PeterPolyol] #4600865
12/11/17 04:40 PM
12/11/17 04:40 PM
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 14,556
Silicon Valley
PandaBear Offline
PandaBear  Offline
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 14,556
Silicon Valley
I really don't get what's the big deal about recall and TSB if the manufacturer foot the bill.

As an engineer, I know things are not always perfect and realized right off the bat. I personally would rather they fix it than telling the customers that the products behave correctly, or the customers were at fault.

Human are biased, and cars are fashion (forgive me for saying that, they are all gasoline combustion cranking devices that turns a gear box and move 2-4 wheels) and people pay for fashion that brings them warm fuzzy feeling. The Camry buyer may feel warm and fuzzy for a 10 year old 400k Camry and the teen feel cheated on (whether justified or not) by that 250k Lancer. Unfair? probably, but that's what makes us human.

Just buy what makes you happy and stick with it.


"You keep asking questions PandaBear and you'll end up a vegetarian like my wife" - Camu Mahubah
Re: Self-fulfilling prophecies and cars [Re: pandus13] #4600868
12/11/17 04:43 PM
12/11/17 04:43 PM
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 14,556
Silicon Valley
PandaBear Offline
PandaBear  Offline
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 14,556
Silicon Valley
Originally Posted By: pandus13
didn't most people just drove a car to around 100k miles?
at the average of 12-15k miles per year, 300k miles would mean 20+ years.
Plastic + electronics cooking much?
maybe a worldwide airbag recall?


Maybe in Chicago, but around here 200k is the benchmark, 100k is borderline unreliable if it died of power train issues.

Also many people drive way more than 12-15k miles per year, short commute is not cheap.

20 years is about right though, by that time many things will break due to age instead of mileage. Then again you won't get to that age on salted road.


With 200k miles and 20 years, you can tell which models have "annoyance" and which models have "serious design problem". Yes Toyota and Honda have them too, and some even just certain engine or transmission model. You got to be really naive to think that statistically a Camry would have the same reliability as say, a Chrysler Sebring.


Last edited by PandaBear; 12/11/17 04:48 PM.

"You keep asking questions PandaBear and you'll end up a vegetarian like my wife" - Camu Mahubah
Re: Self-fulfilling prophecies and cars [Re: PeterPolyol] #4600869
12/11/17 04:45 PM
12/11/17 04:45 PM
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 82
Appalachia
Wurlitzer Offline
Wurlitzer  Offline
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 82
Appalachia
Why is it that we never hear about the "Chrysler reliability myth"? Or the "Ford reliability myth"? I've never seen a book entitled the "Chevy reliability myth". No one has ever said to me "you know, Mercedes really aren't as reliable as every one says."

Honda and Toyota, on the other hand, routinely are mentioned in the same sentence as "reliability".

Re: Self-fulfilling prophecies and cars [Re: PeterPolyol] #4600873
12/11/17 04:53 PM
12/11/17 04:53 PM
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 1,824
The land of USA-made Subies!
SubieRubyRoo Offline
SubieRubyRoo  Offline
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 1,824
The land of USA-made Subies!
Chryslers- oil burners
Ford- 6F35 transmission issues
Chevy - LS engine piston slap
Honda - Odyssey/Pilot 5-speed transmission woes
Toyota - multiple large safety recalls
VW - Dieselgate
Audi- "unintended acceleration" tired

Re: Self-fulfilling prophecies and cars [Re: Cujet] #4600891
12/11/17 05:16 PM
12/11/17 05:16 PM
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 9,817
Kendall, FL
wemay Offline
wemay  Offline
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 9,817
Kendall, FL
Originally Posted By: Cujet
I clearly follow your reasoning. However, the assumption that the majority of Honda and Toyota owners are "fanboi's" and in essence, willing to lie, is patently absurd.

Does that explain why the Japanese automakers are in the top 6 slots with regard to long term reliability? Because only Japanese car owners are liars?

Or is it that American and European vehicles truly have more frequent and more expensive repairs?





This^^


18 Sportage LX: M1AP 5W-20 + M1-104A
13 SFS 2.0T: PP 10W-30 + XG9688
Re: Self-fulfilling prophecies and cars [Re: Cujet] #4600893
12/11/17 05:18 PM
12/11/17 05:18 PM
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 5,576
MA
Wolf359 Offline
Wolf359  Offline
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 5,576
MA
Originally Posted By: Cujet
I clearly follow your reasoning. However, the assumption that the majority of Honda and Toyota owners are "fanboi's" and in essence, willing to lie, is patently absurd.

Does that explain why the Japanese automakers are in the top 6 slots with regard to long term reliability? Because only Japanese car owners are liars?

Or is it that American and European vehicles truly have more frequent and more expensive repairs?



Haven't had a Japanese car in a while, but drove a Taurus for a while before the Mercedes. The Taurus might have had more frequent repairs, but I thought they were actually cheap because they made so many of them, the parts were cheap and everyone knew how to fix them. The Mercedes has had less frequent repairs, but part prices were about 2-3x more than the Taurus which is probably more like 1.5-2x Japanese. But labor costs are the same as the indy I use charges a fixed rate regardless of the brand so overall just 10-20% more for European.

Page 1 of 4 1 2 3 4

BOB IS THE OIL GUY® Powered by UBB.threads™