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#4584789 - 11/25/17 06:32 PM Will today's cars last 20 years?
AZjeff Offline


Registered: 01/14/11
Posts: 2639
Loc: PV Az
Here in the SW you see lots of older cars & trucks as daily drivers. Rust obviously isn't an issue here and it isn't likely that the owners are spending big bucks to keep them on the road. Got to wondering about the cars we have in the garage now with all the electronics and 6 speeds and AFM and LEDs etc if they'll go that far without major ($$) failures. Are today's automotive computers and electronics robust enough to be expected to last? What about the high pressure fuel systems?
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#4584797 - 11/25/17 06:47 PM Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: AZjeff]
PimTac Offline


Registered: 03/04/17
Posts: 4285
Loc: Soviet State of Washington
I donít see why not though some of the electronic gadgetry might not make it that long. They are much more complicated. My new car has all this stuff but the car will still run if it fails.
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#4584798 - 11/25/17 06:49 PM Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: AZjeff]
Chris142 Offline


Registered: 06/05/03
Posts: 16820
Loc: Deplorable in apple valley, ca
Very few will last 20 yrs. The cost to replace and reprogram the various modules will be cost prohibitive if even available. Planned obsolence.
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#4584801 - 11/25/17 06:51 PM Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: AZjeff]
skyactiv Offline


Registered: 03/02/13
Posts: 4396
Loc: The Midwest
Some people think todays vehicles are better than vehicles from 20 years ago. I highly doubt a 2018 Honda Civic 1.5T CVT will be as reliable as an old 1998 1.6
5 speed manual was.
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#4584812 - 11/25/17 07:04 PM Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: skyactiv]
Artem Offline


Registered: 10/30/10
Posts: 5117
Loc: Florida
Originally Posted By: skyactiv
Some people think todays vehicles are better than vehicles from 20 years ago. I highly doubt a 2018 Honda Civic 1.5T CVT will be as reliable as an old 1998 1.6
5 speed manual was.


Well comparing a 5 speed vs a CVT is silly. I'm sure the 6 speed version will last longer if driven properly. Can't say the same about the Turbo. That will need to be replaced in 10 years and I can see many of these hitting the junk yard as a result of the owner not willing too or being able to replace a $2,000 Turbo.
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#4584814 - 11/25/17 07:08 PM Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: AZjeff]
NHGUY Offline


Registered: 10/09/11
Posts: 5043
Loc: USA
Parts will be discontinued/not available way before that time is up.By law,parts only need to be inventoried as long as the warranty exists.So a 3year/36,000 mile warranty makes parts legally obsolete by 2021.

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#4584822 - 11/25/17 07:13 PM Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: Chris142]
Toto Offline


Registered: 02/10/10
Posts: 374
Loc: Grand Rapids, Michigan
[quote=Chris142]Very few will last 20 yrs. The cost to replace and reprogram the various modules will be cost prohibitive if even available. Planned obsolence.

X2
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#4584827 - 11/25/17 07:21 PM Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: AZjeff]
Warstud Offline


Registered: 09/02/05
Posts: 5395
Loc: MIchigan
Originally Posted By: AZjeff
Are today's automotive computers and electronics robust enough to be expected to last?


These will probably be the first to go.

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#4584835 - 11/25/17 07:37 PM Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: AZjeff]
Merkava_4 Offline


Registered: 01/30/07
Posts: 17501
Loc: Clovis, CA
It's all driven by market demand. If there's a demand for rebuilt computers and modules, they'll be available.

And a lot of that depends on people's wages compared to the cost of new cars. If the cost of buying a new car is beyond most people's reach, then aftermarket parts availability will be good since people will be keeping their cars longer.

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#4584838 - 11/25/17 07:39 PM Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: AZjeff]
ecotourist Offline


Registered: 07/09/08
Posts: 1067
Loc: British Columbia, Canada
I keep my cars a long time.

Modern cars are well built but have a few components that are a concern. On the other hand I had a module refurbished on my BMW for $300 and the oil cooled turbo on my Volvo was still going strong after 18 1/2 years and 285,000 km. It lasted another 5 years in my friends' teenagers' hands (before they sold to some clown who promptly wrote it off) so I don't know how long it would have lasted.

So cars are reliable and repairable as long as you can figure out what you need to do. Youtube and the internet are a big help for the do-it-yourselfer. But specialty shops will be the minimum requirement for major repairs in the future.
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#4584841 - 11/25/17 07:44 PM Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: AZjeff]
saginawmale50 Offline


Registered: 12/16/06
Posts: 66
Loc: saginaw michigan
Carboned up valves in direct injection engines. Timing chain replacements. ECM replacements. 10 years if youre lucky.

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#4584845 - 11/25/17 07:46 PM Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: AZjeff]
ecotourist Offline


Registered: 07/09/08
Posts: 1067
Loc: British Columbia, Canada
Some years ago Peter Egan wrote a story about himself and a group of car buffs (accomplished repair guys) who were in the backwoods driving a modern vehicle when they were done in by an electronic distributor.

They could have repaired an old English or Italian distributor with the proverbial bent spoon and a dull knife but had to wait for parts to get that one going again.
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2007 Honda Accord EX-L 4Door V6 6MT

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#4584846 - 11/25/17 07:46 PM Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: NHGUY]
AZjeff Offline


Registered: 01/14/11
Posts: 2639
Loc: PV Az
Originally Posted By: NHGUY
Parts will be discontinued/not available way before that time is up.By law,parts only need to be inventoried as long as the warranty exists.So a 3year/36,000 mile warranty makes parts legally obsolete by 2021.


So can you walk into a Chevy dealer today and order am OEM fender for a 1997 truck or not? The aftermarket will step up to fill a demand as said.

There are always going to be people who by choice or necessity want to buy the sub $5000 car, and expect it to run for a couple of more years without huge repair bills. What will they buy in 15 - 20 years?
_________________________
86 Samurai 1.3 leftovers
14 RAV4 2.5 5W-20 PP *gasp*
16 Silverado 1500 4.3 Ecotec3, DI, AFM 5W-30 PP

Why know when you can guess?!


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#4584847 - 11/25/17 07:49 PM Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: AZjeff]
madRiver Offline


Registered: 07/11/15
Posts: 3537
Loc: New England
I see complex 1997 MB and BMWs still running around. Yes but keeping a vehicle 20 years is past design life and minority of car buyers.

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#4584863 - 11/25/17 08:02 PM Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: AZjeff]
PimTac Offline


Registered: 03/04/17
Posts: 4285
Loc: Soviet State of Washington
Iíll bet that this same discussion took place twenty years ago and twenty years before that.
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