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Will today's cars last 20 years? #4584789
11/25/17 07:32 PM
11/25/17 07:32 PM
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,943
PV Az
AZjeff Offline OP
AZjeff  Offline OP
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,943
PV Az
Here in the SW you see lots of older cars & trucks as daily drivers. Rust obviously isn't an issue here and it isn't likely that the owners are spending big bucks to keep them on the road. Got to wondering about the cars we have in the garage now with all the electronics and 6 speeds and AFM and LEDs etc if they'll go that far without major ($$) failures. Are today's automotive computers and electronics robust enough to be expected to last? What about the high pressure fuel systems?


86 Samurai 1.3 leftovers
14 RAV4 2.5 5W-20 PP
16 Silverado 1500 4.3, DI, AFM 5W-30 PP

The most important thing to do in your life is to not interfere with someone else's life. - Frank Zappa

Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: AZjeff] #4584797
11/25/17 07:47 PM
11/25/17 07:47 PM
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,452
Soviet State of Washington
PimTac Offline
PimTac  Offline
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,452
Soviet State of Washington
I donít see why not though some of the electronic gadgetry might not make it that long. They are much more complicated. My new car has all this stuff but the car will still run if it fails.


2017 Mazda CX-5 Grand Touring

Valvoline Advanced Synthetic 0w20
Mobil 1 M108A EP filter

Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: AZjeff] #4584798
11/25/17 07:49 PM
11/25/17 07:49 PM
Joined: Jun 2003
Posts: 17,355
Deplorable in apple valley, ca
Chris142 Offline
Chris142  Offline
Joined: Jun 2003
Posts: 17,355
Deplorable in apple valley, ca
Very few will last 20 yrs. The cost to replace and reprogram the various modules will be cost prohibitive if even available. Planned obsolence.


02 Wrangler durablend 10w40
87 F250 traveler 15w40
04 Tahoe super-s 10w30
Z400 castrol T 10w40
Can am maveric edge 5w40
57 case tractor 15w40
Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: AZjeff] #4584801
11/25/17 07:51 PM
11/25/17 07:51 PM
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 4,769
The Midwest
skyactiv Online content
skyactiv  Online Content
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 4,769
The Midwest
Some people think todays vehicles are better than vehicles from 20 years ago. I highly doubt a 2018 Honda Civic 1.5T CVT will be as reliable as an old 1998 1.6
5 speed manual was.


Wife: 15' Audi A4 quattro 6 speed manual
Me: 13' VW GTI 3 door 6 speed manual
Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: skyactiv] #4584812
11/25/17 08:04 PM
11/25/17 08:04 PM
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 5,285
Florida
Artem Offline
Artem  Offline
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 5,285
Florida
Originally Posted By: skyactiv
Some people think todays vehicles are better than vehicles from 20 years ago. I highly doubt a 2018 Honda Civic 1.5T CVT will be as reliable as an old 1998 1.6
5 speed manual was.


Well comparing a 5 speed vs a CVT is silly. I'm sure the 6 speed version will last longer if driven properly. Can't say the same about the Turbo. That will need to be replaced in 10 years and I can see many of these hitting the junk yard as a result of the owner not willing too or being able to replace a $2,000 Turbo.


2014 Mazda 3 Hatch 2.0L & 6spd - Idemitsu 0w20 Synthetic @ $0.75 a quart. (thanks Advance Auto Parts for the awesome deal)
Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: AZjeff] #4584814
11/25/17 08:08 PM
11/25/17 08:08 PM
Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 5,091
USA
NHGUY Offline
NHGUY  Offline
Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 5,091
USA
Parts will be discontinued/not available way before that time is up.By law,parts only need to be inventoried as long as the warranty exists.So a 3year/36,000 mile warranty makes parts legally obsolete by 2021.

Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: Chris142] #4584822
11/25/17 08:13 PM
11/25/17 08:13 PM
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 385
Grand Rapids, Michigan
Toto Offline
Toto  Offline
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 385
Grand Rapids, Michigan
[quote=Chris142]Very few will last 20 yrs. The cost to replace and reprogram the various modules will be cost prohibitive if even available. Planned obsolence.

X2


AMSOIL-OE 0W 20-XL 10W 30-SEVERE GEAR
NAPA GOLD
Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: AZjeff] #4584827
11/25/17 08:21 PM
11/25/17 08:21 PM
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,679
MIchigan
Warstud Offline
Warstud  Offline
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,679
MIchigan
Originally Posted By: AZjeff
Are today's automotive computers and electronics robust enough to be expected to last?


These will probably be the first to go.

Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: AZjeff] #4584835
11/25/17 08:37 PM
11/25/17 08:37 PM
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 17,501
Clovis, CA
Merkava_4 Offline
Merkava_4  Offline
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 17,501
Clovis, CA
It's all driven by market demand. If there's a demand for rebuilt computers and modules, they'll be available.

And a lot of that depends on people's wages compared to the cost of new cars. If the cost of buying a new car is beyond most people's reach, then aftermarket parts availability will be good since people will be keeping their cars longer.

Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: AZjeff] #4584838
11/25/17 08:39 PM
11/25/17 08:39 PM
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 1,090
British Columbia, Canada
ecotourist Offline
ecotourist  Offline
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 1,090
British Columbia, Canada
I keep my cars a long time.

Modern cars are well built but have a few components that are a concern. On the other hand I had a module refurbished on my BMW for $300 and the oil cooled turbo on my Volvo was still going strong after 18 1/2 years and 285,000 km. It lasted another 5 years in my friends' teenagers' hands (before they sold to some clown who promptly wrote it off) so I don't know how long it would have lasted.

So cars are reliable and repairable as long as you can figure out what you need to do. Youtube and the internet are a big help for the do-it-yourselfer. But specialty shops will be the minimum requirement for major repairs in the future.


2000 BMW 528i 5MT
2007 Honda Accord EX-L 4Door V6 6MT
Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: AZjeff] #4584841
11/25/17 08:44 PM
11/25/17 08:44 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 70
saginaw michigan
saginawmale50 Offline
saginawmale50  Offline
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 70
saginaw michigan
Carboned up valves in direct injection engines. Timing chain replacements. ECM replacements. 10 years if youre lucky.

Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: AZjeff] #4584845
11/25/17 08:46 PM
11/25/17 08:46 PM
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 1,090
British Columbia, Canada
ecotourist Offline
ecotourist  Offline
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 1,090
British Columbia, Canada
Some years ago Peter Egan wrote a story about himself and a group of car buffs (accomplished repair guys) who were in the backwoods driving a modern vehicle when they were done in by an electronic distributor.

They could have repaired an old English or Italian distributor with the proverbial bent spoon and a dull knife but had to wait for parts to get that one going again.


2000 BMW 528i 5MT
2007 Honda Accord EX-L 4Door V6 6MT
Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: NHGUY] #4584846
11/25/17 08:46 PM
11/25/17 08:46 PM
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,943
PV Az
AZjeff Offline OP
AZjeff  Offline OP
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,943
PV Az
Originally Posted By: NHGUY
Parts will be discontinued/not available way before that time is up.By law,parts only need to be inventoried as long as the warranty exists.So a 3year/36,000 mile warranty makes parts legally obsolete by 2021.


So can you walk into a Chevy dealer today and order am OEM fender for a 1997 truck or not? The aftermarket will step up to fill a demand as said.

There are always going to be people who by choice or necessity want to buy the sub $5000 car, and expect it to run for a couple of more years without huge repair bills. What will they buy in 15 - 20 years?


86 Samurai 1.3 leftovers
14 RAV4 2.5 5W-20 PP
16 Silverado 1500 4.3, DI, AFM 5W-30 PP

The most important thing to do in your life is to not interfere with someone else's life. - Frank Zappa

Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: AZjeff] #4584847
11/25/17 08:49 PM
11/25/17 08:49 PM
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 3,794
New England
madRiver Offline
madRiver  Offline
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 3,794
New England
I see complex 1997 MB and BMWs still running around. Yes but keeping a vehicle 20 years is past design life and minority of car buyers.

Re: Will today's cars last 20 years? [Re: AZjeff] #4584863
11/25/17 09:02 PM
11/25/17 09:02 PM
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,452
Soviet State of Washington
PimTac Offline
PimTac  Offline
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,452
Soviet State of Washington
Iíll bet that this same discussion took place twenty years ago and twenty years before that.


2017 Mazda CX-5 Grand Touring

Valvoline Advanced Synthetic 0w20
Mobil 1 M108A EP filter

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