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#4573960 - 11/14/17 04:21 PM "U.S. to Dominate Oil Markets..."
wemay Offline


Registered: 04/04/12
Posts: 8861
Loc: Southeast Florida
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...boom-in-history

The U.S. will be a dominant force in global oil and gas markets for many years to come as the shale boom becomes the biggest supply surge in history, the International Energy Agency predicted.

"By 2025, the growth in American oil production will equal that achieved by Saudi Arabia at the height of its expansion, and increases in natural gas will surpass those of the former Soviet Union, the agency said in its annual World Energy Outlook. The boom will turn the U.S., still among the biggest oil importers, into a net exporter of fossil fuels.



“The United States will be the undisputed leader of global oil and gas markets for decades to come,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said Tuesday in an interview with Bloomberg television. “There’s big growth coming from shale oil, and as such there’ll be a big difference between the U.S. and other producers.”

The agency raised estimates for the amount of shale oil that can be technically recovered by about 30 percent to 105 billion barrels. Forecasts for shale-oil output in 2025 were bolstered by 34 percent to 9 million barrels a day.

The U.S. industry “has emerged from its trial-by-fire as a leaner and hungrier version of its former self, remarkably resilient and reacting to any sign of higher prices caused by OPEC’s return to active market management,” the IEA said.

While oil prices have recovered to a two-year high above $60 a barrel, they’re still about half the level traded earlier this decade, as the global market struggles to absorb the scale of the U.S. bonanza. It’s taken the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia almost 11 months of production cuts to clear up some of the oversupply.

Price Cut

Reflecting the expected flood of supply, the agency cut its forecasts for oil prices to $83 a barrel for 2025 from $101 previously, and to $111 for 2040 from $125 before.

Lower prices are helping to support oil demand, and the IEA raised its projections for global consumption through to 2035, despite the growing popularity of electric vehicles. The world will use just over 100 million barrels of oil a day by 2025.

That will benefit the U.S. as it turns from imports to exports. The country will “see a reduction of these huge import needs,” Birol said at a press conference in London. That “will bring a lot of dollars to U.S. business.”

Nevertheless, U.S. shale output is expected to decline from the middle of the next decade, and with investment cuts taking their toll on other new supplies, the world will become increasingly reliant once again on OPEC, according to the report. The cartel, led by Middle East producers, will see its share of the market grow to 46 percent in 2040 from 43 percent now.

Yet that could still change, the IEA said.
U.S. to Dominate Oil Markets After Biggest Boom in World History

By Grant Smith
November 13, 2017, 7:00 PM EST
Updated on November 14, 2017, 9:37 AM EST
U.S. expansion to beat Saudi oil growth, Soviet Union’s gas
Lower crude prices will help buoy global demand, agency says

IEA Says U.S. Will Lead Oil Industry By 2025
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol discusses the U.S. shale surge and its impact on the global oil market.
The U.S. will be a dominant force in global oil and gas markets for many years to come as the shale boom becomes the biggest supply surge in history, the International Energy Agency predicted.

By 2025, the growth in American oil production will equal that achieved by Saudi Arabia at the height of its expansion, and increases in natural gas will surpass those of the former Soviet Union, the agency said in its annual World Energy Outlook. The boom will turn the U.S., still among the biggest oil importers, into a net exporter of fossil fuels.

“The United States will be the undisputed leader of global oil and gas markets for decades to come,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said Tuesday in an interview with Bloomberg television. “There’s big growth coming from shale oil, and as such there’ll be a big difference between the U.S. and other producers.”

The agency raised estimates for the amount of shale oil that can be technically recovered by about 30 percent to 105 billion barrels. Forecasts for shale-oil output in 2025 were bolstered by 34 percent to 9 million barrels a day.

The U.S. industry “has emerged from its trial-by-fire as a leaner and hungrier version of its former self, remarkably resilient and reacting to any sign of higher prices caused by OPEC’s return to active market management,” the IEA said.

While oil prices have recovered to a two-year high above $60 a barrel, they’re still about half the level traded earlier this decade, as the global market struggles to absorb the scale of the U.S. bonanza. It’s taken the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia almost 11 months of production cuts to clear up some of the oversupply.

Price Cut
Reflecting the expected flood of supply, the agency cut its forecasts for oil prices to $83 a barrel for 2025 from $101 previously, and to $111 for 2040 from $125 before.

Lower prices are helping to support oil demand, and the IEA raised its projections for global consumption through to 2035, despite the growing popularity of electric vehicles. The world will use just over 100 million barrels of oil a day by 2025.

That will benefit the U.S. as it turns from imports to exports. The country will “see a reduction of these huge import needs,” Birol said at a press conference in London. That “will bring a lot of dollars to U.S. business.”

Nevertheless, U.S. shale output is expected to decline from the middle of the next decade, and with investment cuts taking their toll on other new supplies, the world will become increasingly reliant once again on OPEC, according to the report. The cartel, led by Middle East producers, will see its share of the market grow to 46 percent in 2040 from 43 percent now.
Yet that could still change, the IEA said.

The Next Shale Revolution
As shale has outperformed expectations so far, the IEA added a scenario in which the industry beats current projections. If shale resources turn out to be double current estimates, and the use of electric vehicles erodes demand more than anticipated, prices could stay in a “lower-for-longer” range of $50 to $70 a barrel through to 2040.

“There could be further surprises ahead,” the IEA said.

— With assistance by Kelly Gilblom, and Francine Lacqua
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#4573994 - 11/14/17 05:01 PM Re: "U.S. to Dominate Oil Markets..." [Re: wemay]
JohnnyJohnson Online   content


Registered: 10/22/09
Posts: 2731
Loc: Wet side WA
We need to keep that right here in America and stay energy independent. Put Americans back to work and they start buying cars again and using it right here and paying taxes rather than using food stamps.
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#4574048 - 11/14/17 06:13 PM Re: "U.S. to Dominate Oil Markets..." [Re: JohnnyJohnson]
LoneRanger Offline


Registered: 07/02/07
Posts: 4050
Loc: Midwest USA
Originally Posted By: JohnnyJohnson
We need to keep that right here in America and stay energy independent. Put Americans back to work and they start buying cars again and using it right here and paying taxes rather than using food stamps.


Global supply, global demand, global economy. It won't hurt that we're exporting it. Our economy will actually flourish due to the exports, and that should lift all Americans economically.
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#4574083 - 11/14/17 06:35 PM Re: "U.S. to Dominate Oil Markets..." [Re: wemay]
fdcg27 Online   content


Registered: 09/25/09
Posts: 15687
Loc: OH
Yep, this is exactly what microeconomic theory would have predicted.
Make a commodity more expensive and you'll see supply increased, exactly what happened.
Given the need of most OPEC producers to sustain output to finance themselves, I suspect that IEA's future crude price estimates are way high.
New North American production has broken the back of any cartel's ability to control prices by controlling output, not that that was ever especially successful except for a very brief period leading up to the global economic collapse of 2008.
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#4575599 - 11/15/17 10:54 PM Re: "U.S. to Dominate Oil Markets..." [Re: wemay]
SonofJoe Offline


Registered: 07/23/16
Posts: 1052
Loc: Europe
I don't doubt that this is true. However, speaking as a one-time oil man, I'm wondering whether we are witnessing the beginning of the end of The Age Of Oil.

Not everyone agrees with global warming but I think it's real and so do a growing number of governments. We are already seeing countries in Europe flagging up bans on sales of car with internal combustion engines from 2040 and the head of Toyota R&D thinks the ICE will be dead by 2050. China & India, with their huge city pollution problems, will eventually have to do something to restrict oil usage (you can't keep gassing your own population without them kicking back at some point!).

Yes I know that the world's primary energy has to come from somewhere and right now, oil is still a massive part of the mix, but I would be wary of investing in oil unless the pay out was short-term.



Edited by SonofJoe (11/15/17 10:56 PM)

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#4575617 - 11/15/17 11:29 PM Re: "U.S. to Dominate Oil Markets..." [Re: LoneRanger]
4WD Online   confused


Registered: 09/21/10
Posts: 6362
Loc: Texas
Seems like just the other day the shale drillers were taking out a second mortgage at $30/bbl ...
If the folks who make these claims could actually predict the futures - they’d be sipping wine on the French Riviera and not typing and talking B$ …

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#4575662 - 11/16/17 03:06 AM Re: "U.S. to Dominate Oil Markets..." [Re: SonofJoe]
miro Offline


Registered: 05/05/13
Posts: 119
Loc: the Netherlands
Originally Posted By: SonofJoe
We are already seeing countries in Europe flagging up bans on sales of car with internal combustion engines from 2040 and the head of Toyota R&D thinks the ICE will be dead by 2050.

In many EU country internal combustion engines cars will be banned at 2040. But sells of new ICE cars will be banned soon. Somewhere in 2022....2025.

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#4575690 - 11/16/17 05:15 AM Re: "U.S. to Dominate Oil Markets..." [Re: miro]
Shannow Online   content


Registered: 12/12/02
Posts: 39838
Loc: 'Stralia
Originally Posted By: miro
Originally Posted By: SonofJoe
We are already seeing countries in Europe flagging up bans on sales of car with internal combustion engines from 2040 and the head of Toyota R&D thinks the ICE will be dead by 2050.

In many EU country internal combustion engines cars will be banned at 2040. But sells of new ICE cars will be banned soon. Somewhere in 2022....2025.


That's the absolute definition of stupidity...

people who know nothing about the subject, but have a "feel good", absolute knowledge and the ability to cast rule, picking losers (legislating things out of existence), and expecting the solution to present itself naturally and seamlessly.

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#4575869 - 11/16/17 09:32 AM Re: "U.S. to Dominate Oil Markets..." [Re: wemay]
SonofJoe Offline


Registered: 07/23/16
Posts: 1052
Loc: Europe
Can I just say that today, the UK is the world's dominant force when it comes to creating unrealistic & irredeemably stupid politicians. If you want your strong and stable country reduced to decades of unending economic chaos, we have just what you're looking for. Post-Brexit, we are hoping (praying?) that we can export some of our Eton-educated tossers to new, emerging (and unsuspecting?) nations...

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#4576136 - 11/16/17 02:09 PM Re: "U.S. to Dominate Oil Markets..." [Re: SonofJoe]
Claud Offline


Registered: 02/11/14
Posts: 593
Loc: Margate England
Originally Posted By: SonofJoe
Can I just say that today, the UK is the world's dominant force when it comes to creating unrealistic & irredeemably stupid politicians. If you want your strong and stable country reduced to decades of unending economic chaos, we have just what you're looking for. Post-Brexit, we are hoping (praying?) that we can export some of our Eton-educated tossers to new, emerging (and unsuspecting?) nations...


You can certainly say that. I think there are arguably other Western world nations that could compete on level terms, notably the USA, but the nations where you are not allowed to say the government is corrupt, stupid, greedy, or whatever knock them out of the park.

Claud.

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#4576429 - 11/16/17 07:15 PM Re: "U.S. to Dominate Oil Markets..." [Re: Shannow]
fdcg27 Online   content


Registered: 09/25/09
Posts: 15687
Loc: OH
I suspect that the ICE age will end not with a bang but with a whimper.
Sales of ICE powered cars will gradually decline as EVs and maybe fuel cell cars take their place for many users.
Longer trips will be done increasingly by rail or air. Most freight will move by rail and long haul trucks will still exist but will become rare and costly for shippers. They'll be like second day air in cost and efficiency.
By 2100, there will still be many ICE cars on the road, but they'll be a relatively small proportion of the personal vehicle fleet.
Most of them will be either cheapies aimed at rural dwellers or collectible legacy cars retained by people with the money to spend on toys from a long passed era.
Refined fuel may become more expensive as the number of refineries declines.
Crude oil will become dirt cheap as the transportation demand for it fades.
This future looks to be coming, and it's as much a matter of reducing urban pollution as it is reducing the release of long sequestered carbon.
If I could buy an EV that could reliably do my daily commute as well as our weekend trips without issue, I might.
These cars are coming and will convert many to EV purchase and use.
My oil stash might become obsolete, although probably not within my lifetime.
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#4576580 - 11/16/17 09:24 PM Re: "U.S. to Dominate Oil Markets..." [Re: fdcg27]
4WD Online   confused


Registered: 09/21/10
Posts: 6362
Loc: Texas
The F/A-42 “Fighting Locust” will run off plant based jet fuel …

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#4584461 - 11/25/17 12:30 PM Re: "U.S. to Dominate Oil Markets..." [Re: wemay]
benjy Offline


Registered: 08/23/10
Posts: 865
Loc: pa
fracking fracks up the land + many near can't drink their well water due to seepage + cancer causing chemicals that the politicians $$$ made laws to not have to disclose in PA at least NICE!!!! NOT!!!!


Edited by benjy (11/25/17 12:30 PM)

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#4593533 - 12/03/17 09:58 PM Re: "U.S. to Dominate Oil Markets..." [Re: wemay]
Indydriver Offline


Registered: 03/20/11
Posts: 2152
Loc: Indiana
The US should heavily tax any oil or gas exported away from the home market.
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#4593670 - 12/04/17 05:49 AM Re: "U.S. to Dominate Oil Markets..." [Re: wemay]
Claud Offline


Registered: 02/11/14
Posts: 593
Loc: Margate England
The 18th Century saw the birth of industrialisation.
The 19th Century was the age of coal.
The 20th Century was the age of oil.
What will the 21st century be remebered as?.

Claud.

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