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#4532168 - 10/02/17 04:35 PM GM Electric Cars: Resistance is Futile (& V/I too)
oil_film_movies Offline


Registered: 06/13/16
Posts: 2553
Loc: MN
"Bob is the Electron Guy" will be the new name of a geek website once this GM-Tesla future happens:
https://www.wired.com/story/general-motors-electric-cars-plan-gm/

Start hoarding those V8's now while you can....

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#4532183 - 10/02/17 04:46 PM Re: GM Electric Cars: Resistance is Futile (& V/I too) [Re: oil_film_movies]
skyactiv Offline


Registered: 03/02/13
Posts: 4394
Loc: The Midwest
I've been telling people for the past couple of years now is the time to buy your new V8 muscle car. A 2025 Mustang V8 5.0 GT isn't going to happen.
_________________________
Wife: 15' Audi A4 quattro 6 speed manual
Me: 13' VW GTI 3 door 6 speed manual

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#4532199 - 10/02/17 05:08 PM Re: GM Electric Cars: Resistance is Futile (& V/I too) [Re: oil_film_movies]
oil_film_movies Offline


Registered: 06/13/16
Posts: 2553
Loc: MN
Hybrids and fully electric vehicles are all basically used frequently right now.
Low-RPM torque from electric motors are very satisfying to drive away from stop lights. Peppy.
My guess is, in 10 years, hybrids will be 50% of vehicles, and full-electrics will be 40%, with 10% still gasoline or natural gas vehicles.

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#4532208 - 10/02/17 05:23 PM Re: GM Electric Cars: Resistance is Futile (& V/I too) [Re: oil_film_movies]
oil_film_movies Offline


Registered: 06/13/16
Posts: 2553
Loc: MN
I've driven a BMW i3 and Tesla Model S, and now I'd like to convince a Chevy dealership to hand me the keys to a Bolt. I hear they are very quick and handle OK.


Edited by oil_film_movies (10/02/17 05:24 PM)

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#4532229 - 10/02/17 05:56 PM Re: GM Electric Cars: Resistance is Futile (& V/I too) [Re: oil_film_movies]
fdcg27 Offline


Registered: 09/25/09
Posts: 15693
Loc: OH
Originally Posted By: oil_film_movies
Hybrids and fully electric vehicles are all basically used frequently right now.
Low-RPM torque from electric motors are very satisfying to drive away from stop lights. Peppy.
My guess is, in 10 years, hybrids will be 50% of vehicles, and full-electrics will be 40%, with 10% still gasoline or natural gas vehicles.


In just ten years?
Umm, no.
You'd have to be already starting to build the power generation capacity and distribution infrastructure for EVs to be even half of the 40% figure you posit for this to be even remotely possible.
More hybrids, maybe, but their relative advantage in fuel economy has shrunk in comparing like to like with the continued development of IC engine powered cars and the most efficient hybrids require grid charging to realize their low fuel consumption. See above for the problems with this.
IC engine cars down to 10% in ten years?
Not even in the realm of possibility.
Unless this country enacts the same confiscatory fuel taxes that Europe has enjoyed (labored under) for decades, there is no likelihood of the IC engine being so rapidly abandoned in this country. Look at what our fellow countrymen are buying. Those SUVs and pickups are neither hybrids nor EVs and efficient sedans are dirt cheap due to relatively lower demand.
I think your predictions have merit. I just think you're way wrong on the timeline.
_________________________
17 Forester 12K MSS 0W-20
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#4532254 - 10/02/17 06:32 PM Re: GM Electric Cars: Resistance is Futile (& V/I too) [Re: oil_film_movies]
CT8 Offline


Registered: 10/09/14
Posts: 10946
Loc: Idaho
Electric cars have their places but where will the electricity come from? California's power grid can't handle the air conditioner load on hot days for example.
_________________________
"Don't let your preconceived notions get in the way of facts."
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#4532256 - 10/02/17 06:34 PM Re: GM Electric Cars: Resistance is Futile (& V/I too) [Re: CT8]
oil_film_movies Offline


Registered: 06/13/16
Posts: 2553
Loc: MN
Originally Posted By: CT8
Electric cars have their places butwherewill the electricity come from? Californias power grid can't handle the air conditioner load on hot days for example.
No choice but to build more powerplants (nat gas, nuke), more hydroelectric, and more wind/solar. We have to do that anyway in the U.S. because we already import 1,000,000 people per year into this country.

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#4532259 - 10/02/17 06:37 PM Re: GM Electric Cars: Resistance is Futile (& V/I too) [Re: oil_film_movies]
BrocLuno Offline


Registered: 09/06/15
Posts: 5511
Loc: Kalifornia Kollective
From 1% to 50% is a huge leap. Maybe by 2050 ...
_________________________
Formerly in marine engineering. In an earlier life I owned my own petroleum tank truck, and hauled for the majors and independent's.

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#4532264 - 10/02/17 06:41 PM Re: GM Electric Cars: Resistance is Futile (& V/I too) [Re: BrocLuno]
oil_film_movies Offline


Registered: 06/13/16
Posts: 2553
Loc: MN
Originally Posted By: BrocLuno
From 1% to 50% is a huge leap. Maybe by 2050 ...
I should have said "of all new vehicles sold". My bad. I'm saying in 10 years 50% sold will be hybrids; 40% sold will be full-electric. The rest normal stuff we see today.

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#4532280 - 10/02/17 06:58 PM Re: GM Electric Cars: Resistance is Futile (& V/I too) [Re: oil_film_movies]
ShotGun429 Offline


Registered: 12/09/04
Posts: 426
Loc: Dayton,Ohio
so you are saying the business model of the Speed Shop i work at is bleak? Ouch! 67 years in business down the drain soon.... I thought muscle cars were so in vogue.

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#4532283 - 10/02/17 07:00 PM Re: GM Electric Cars: Resistance is Futile (& V/I too) [Re: oil_film_movies]
JHZR2 Offline



Registered: 12/14/02
Posts: 41772
Loc: New Jersey
Not as hopeful on full EVs. Hybrids are compelling at this point for superior mpgs and low end torque. It doesn't take nearly as much battery and you still benefit the energy density of gas. PHEVs are the future, imo.

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#4532311 - 10/02/17 07:19 PM Re: GM Electric Cars: Resistance is Futile (& V/I too) [Re: JHZR2]
oil_film_movies Offline


Registered: 06/13/16
Posts: 2553
Loc: MN
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
Not as hopeful on full EVs. Hybrids are compelling at this point for superior mpgs and low end torque. It doesn't take nearly as much battery and you still benefit the energy density of gas. PHEVs are the future, imo.
You can get 43+ MPG (half city, half hiway) in a 3600 lb vehicle using only a 1.4 kWH li-ion battery (Cmax non-plugin), with 0-60 in 7.9 seconds, not a snail. ... Compare that small battery to a full-electrics Chevy Bolt's huge expensive 60 kWH battery which you can't just gas up and go; try a 600-mile trip with that facing you, as Russian Roulette with lengthy stays at charge stations is the problem on long road trips.

The PHEV CMax and Volt gets you a few miles, but now you must pay for and carry around BOTH a larger battery AND an engine+tank.

Plug-in hybrids (PHEV) are fine, but non-plugin hybrids (HEVs) are even cheaper and very good on MPG. I'm not sure what mix the market will pick on PHEVs vs. HEVs, but price-sensitive vehicles (most!!) will be the HEV type.

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#4532321 - 10/02/17 07:25 PM Re: GM Electric Cars: Resistance is Futile (& V/I too) [Re: oil_film_movies]
Shannow Offline


Registered: 12/12/02
Posts: 39849
Loc: 'Stralia
Where are we going to get all this future electricity ?

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#4532339 - 10/02/17 07:44 PM Re: GM Electric Cars: Resistance is Futile (& V/I too) [Re: oil_film_movies]
philipp10 Offline


Registered: 05/09/14
Posts: 1171
Loc: Minnesota
Originally Posted By: oil_film_movies
Hybrids and fully electric vehicles are all basically used frequently right now.
Low-RPM torque from electric motors are very satisfying to drive away from stop lights. Peppy.
My guess is, in 10 years, hybrids will be 50% of vehicles, and full-electrics will be 40%, with 10% still gasoline or natural gas vehicles.


Try more like 20-30 years. Full electrics still need to drop by 50% in cost to compete with cheap oil. And as electrics take share, oil demand falls....keeping oil low cost for a long time.

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#4532349 - 10/02/17 07:50 PM Re: GM Electric Cars: Resistance is Futile (& V/I too) [Re: oil_film_movies]
fdcg27 Offline


Registered: 09/25/09
Posts: 15693
Loc: OH
Sure, but nobody sees anything like that kind of fuel economy driving their Cmax.
There are plenty of places you can look at for real fuel consumption figures.
EPA estimates for a vehicle programmed to max them (bad pun) don't always apply in real use.
_________________________
17 Forester 12K MSS 0W-20
12 Accord LX 86K PP 5W-20
09 Forester 95K M1HM 10W-30
01 Focus ZX3 118K PP 5W-20
96 Accord LX 104K T5 10W-30
95 318i

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