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#4507564 - 09/04/17 08:04 PM Anyone following IRMA?
OneEyeJack Offline


Registered: 09/14/10
Posts: 7479
Loc: S California

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#4507571 - 09/04/17 08:09 PM Re: Anyone following IRMA? [Re: OneEyeJack]
laserred96gt Offline


Registered: 03/03/13
Posts: 889
Loc: Florida
Yes I am, I'm going tomorrow to stock up on water and non perishables.
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#4507584 - 09/04/17 08:14 PM Re: Anyone following IRMA? [Re: OneEyeJack]
bbhero Offline


Registered: 03/20/15
Posts: 4626
Loc: Virginia
It is tracking west northwest as it approaches Florida. It will likely hit the Keys or even northern Cuba. A strong blocking high pressure center building in from the north, northeast and ridging westward will push the hurricane on that west northwest heading. Once it enters the Gulf of Mexico then it will make landfall obviously somewhere along that coastline. It is far too early to know where it will hit along the Gulf coast.
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#4507596 - 09/04/17 08:32 PM Re: Anyone following IRMA? [Re: OneEyeJack]
bioburner Offline


Registered: 09/19/16
Posts: 1418
Loc: Minnesota
Have a good friend in Melbourne. Dropped a line earlier today but usually she is ahead of everybody in planning. Propane genny, reinforced doors, window panels and well stocked pantry, guard dog, ammo, high clearance vehicle.
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#4507613 - 09/04/17 08:49 PM Re: Anyone following IRMA? [Re: OneEyeJack]
bubbatime Offline


Registered: 03/18/08
Posts: 5622
Loc: South Florida
Stores are completely out of water. No plywood. No gas cans. No bread. No batteries. Lines at gas stations. It's apocalyptic in south Florida...never seen anything like it.

My generator is good to go. Got 20 gallons of gas today. Window AC unit is good to go. Plenty of food, water, batteries, radios, 3 propane tanks, and a deep cycle boat battery and power inverter to charge our electronics when the gen is resting. All cars full of fuel.

I live ON the water, so cat 3 or above and we will have to go inland at least until the storm passes.

Still too early to decide on the track, but we are ready.
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#4507634 - 09/04/17 09:09 PM Re: Anyone following IRMA? [Re: OneEyeJack]
Mr Nice Offline


Registered: 09/12/04
Posts: 21196
Loc: Orlando, FL
Track will change over the next few days.

Hopefully it stays away from south Florida.

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#4507709 - 09/04/17 10:56 PM Re: Anyone following IRMA? [Re: OneEyeJack]
chainblu Online   content


Registered: 06/26/11
Posts: 569
Loc: Florida
I'm about 30 miles from the gulf coast. Yes, I am absolutely keeping an eye on her.

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#4507716 - 09/04/17 11:03 PM Re: Anyone following IRMA? [Re: OneEyeJack]
gman2304 Online   content


Registered: 08/11/11
Posts: 3053
Loc: n.c.
Serviced the generator yesterday. Praying Irma stays well clear of Houston and others affected by Harvey. They need a break.

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#4507719 - 09/04/17 11:08 PM Re: Anyone following IRMA? [Re: bbhero]
user52165 Offline


Registered: 10/21/11
Posts: 1331
Loc: CA
"Once it enters the Gulf of Mexico"

Has this been accurately reported?

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#4507728 - 09/04/17 11:28 PM Re: Anyone following IRMA? [Re: OneEyeJack]
AVB Offline


Registered: 05/20/12
Posts: 1283
Loc: Georgia
NOAA's latest map is predicting it crossing somewhere between the middle of FL and south of Cuba.

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#4507744 - 09/05/17 01:08 AM Re: Anyone following IRMA? [Re: OneEyeJack]
wrcsixeight Offline


Registered: 10/15/10
Posts: 1731
Loc: california
In depth analysis of the influencing variables of this storm's possible track and intensity are laid out quite well here:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Tends to be updated in the evening, and only once a day when there is an active storm.

There are many models one can pick and choose that picking one model's graphics for doom and gloom for any particular area is pretty easy.

It is 5 days out. Track error averages at 5 days out is some 225 miles.

That said it is likely close to Cat5 Status right now, and the only thing which can degrade the storm in that time is land interaction with Hispanola and Cuba and only if the core is actually over land.

The Oceanic heat content in front of the storm is very large. There is very little forcasted wind shear to negatively afct further intensification. The Turks Caicos and Bahamas are not significant enough, height or mass wise, to impact it feeding on those hot waters.

This storm could be one of the most intense ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. If you prepared heavily for Matthew, only to not see much of it, well, don't make a mistake with this storm by not taking it, or the forcast, seriously. Wherever it does eventually land is going to get smeared.

There is very little that can really weaken this storm and a lot which could help it intensify from small to medium sized cat 4 to a large high end record breaking Cat 5.

I am worried for Family/Friends in Florida. Irma could be a true monster.
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#4507757 - 09/05/17 03:47 AM Re: Anyone following IRMA? [Re: user52165]
bbhero Offline


Registered: 03/20/15
Posts: 4626
Loc: Virginia
Based on model trends... GFS and European plus others... GFDL, HRWF..It may well take a hard right turn once there similar to the oddly enough named Labor Day Hurricane of 1935. This hurricane came through the Florida keys with winds around 200 mph, barometric pressure of 26.35, this storm then took a hard right turn once into the Gulf of Mexico and made landfall near the modern day area of Punta Gorda. Then it tracked northeast from that point across the state. The models a couple of days ago showed it taking a course very similar to Hurricane Isabel or Hugo. However, the trend has been to have the blocking area of high pressure in the western Atlantic steer the storm on a west northwest heading instead of the first scenario. This is five to six days out so there's a lot of potential variables in play here. In modeling forecast a slow steady trend is far more significant finding than if the track were changing greatly forecast models run to run. Could it change back closer to the original forecast?? Absolutely. But I feel rather confident it will not because of what the future upper air pattern trend has been. Still early in this circumstance. But I would bet this hurricane could well follow the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935s path...


Edited by bbhero (09/05/17 03:49 AM)
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#4507759 - 09/05/17 04:09 AM Re: Anyone following IRMA? [Re: wrcsixeight]
bbhero Offline


Registered: 03/20/15
Posts: 4626
Loc: Virginia
Water temps are always high in that area of the Atlantic ocean. Only things that could cut down on this storms intensity are upper level winds shear developing, eye wall replacement cycles, dry air being drawn into the storm. It does appear that only one of these could affect the strength of this storm. Eye wall replacement cycles. One thing to be keep in mind is that intensity forecasting is the weakest by far of any of the forecasting models. Case in point... Hurricane Harvey was only forecast to be a strong Tropical Strom or a weak cat 1 hurricane at landfall as of Wednesday afternoon.... It was a category 4 when it made landfall... The intensity forecasting were WAY off in that by a wide margin. I told my lady Wednesday evening that I felt like it was going to be a cat 3 or 4 at landfall. Why did I say that?? The satellite picture showed a definitive tight circulation present that Wednesday evening. With very little wind shear, sea surface temps greater than 30C, and a very strong tight circulation already present I felt quite confident it was going to go through very rapid intensification. In fact, I was surprised that the drama queens at the Weather channel didn't pick up on this looking at the satellite pictures that Wednesday evening. Another even more dramatic example of how poorly the models are at intensity forecasting is Hurricane Wilma. That storm went from a minimal hurricane to a category 5 within 16 hours.. 75 mph to 180 mph with a pressure of 881 mb. The intensity models had forecasted it to be at 105 mph in 24 hrs and at 130 mph in 48 hours. That storm proved how fast a storm can change in a remarkably short period of time. This scenario by the way keeps emergency managers on the Gulf coast up late at night.. . Imagine people go to bed with a hurricane at say 95 mph only to wake up to a category 5 hurricane the next am.
That all having been stated, the intensity forecasting is still the weakest point in hurricane forecasting. But I would agree with the idea that the likelihood of a category 4 storm going towards the south tip of Florida is rather high in this circumstance.


Edited by bbhero (09/05/17 04:12 AM)
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#4507800 - 09/05/17 06:50 AM Re: Anyone following IRMA? [Re: OneEyeJack]
plaguef Offline


Registered: 04/21/17
Posts: 73
Loc: USA
Could it track to Texas?

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#4507837 - 09/05/17 07:43 AM Re: Anyone following IRMA? [Re: plaguef]
bioburner Offline


Registered: 09/19/16
Posts: 1418
Loc: Minnesota
Originally Posted By: plaguef
Could it track to Texas?


With a very strong front coming down from the North (very cold this AM) it probably won't get that far west
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