Superintelligence will trigger a 10x surge in scientific AI breakthroughs?

JeffKeryk

JeffKeryk

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Artificial General Intellicence, aka AGI, development has us at the precipice of an inflection point.
Sam Altman predicts superintelligence will trigger a 10x surge in scientific AI breakthroughs.

Superintelligence may be defined as an entity that surpasses humans in overall intelligence or in some particular measure of intelligence.

I do not believe this can be over emphasized. From Sam Altman, OpenAI CEO:

"If the rate of scientific progress that's happening in the world as a whole tripled, maybe even like 10x, the discoveries that we used to expect to take 10 years and the technological progress we used to expect to take 10 years. If that happened every year, and then we compounded on that the next one, and the next one and the next one. That to me would feel like superintelligence had arrived."

We live in truly exciting times.
 
For some things, maybe.

Sure, smartly set up computing systems can pick interesting details out of noise and chaos. That can be helpful. They can do some crazy things - think about protein folding or super complex physics-based modeling. But there still always requires some semblance of intelligence to make heads and tails out of what is being observed, analyzed, or computed. GIGO.

I think it’s more along the lines of these tools making some human users super intelligent so they can do more and find more.
 
JHZR2 said:
For some things, maybe.

Sure, smartly set up computing systems can pick interesting details out of noise and chaos. That can be helpful. They can do some crazy things - think about protein folding or super complex physics-based modeling. But there still always requires some semblance of intelligence to make heads and tails out of what is being observed, analyzed, or computed. GIGO.

I think it’s more along the lines of these tools making some human users super intelligent so they can do more and find more.
Click to expand...
Yeah, maybe mostly independent AI will always be 1000 days away? ;)
I also think chemistry or physics modelling, materials science, where AI could model and try 1000's of things should help speed some experiments along?
 
What if, we've deciphered the clockwork already? We understand quantum physics, are aware of nearly all limitations and can't do much better than we are doing. Pipe dreams like harnessing zero point energy or the above mentioned inertial containment fusion are impractical for, well, practical reasons...
 
I wonder how much data those AI supercomputers can process for folding@home.
 
JeffKeryk said:
Artificial General Intellicence, aka AGI,
Click to expand...
Never heard of Intellicence.

Are we done with AI already?

I mean this crap promises much, but does what?

Seems like our freedoms are less, our general intelligence lower, the happiness of mankind has stalled out. I say fix the small stuff first.
Anything like this always, always should start with "Does this provide mankind with more freedom and liberty?" If not, throw it in the hopper.

And I am still waiting on what exactly AI has done in the last 3-5 years to help the average Jane.
 
JeffKeryk said:
Artificial General Intellicence, aka AGI, development has us at the precipice of an inflection point.
Sam Altman predicts superintelligence will trigger a 10x surge in scientific AI breakthroughs.

Superintelligence may be defined as an entity that surpasses humans in overall intelligence or in some particular measure of intelligence.

I do not believe this can be over emphasized. From Sam Altman, OpenAI CEO:

"If the rate of scientific progress that's happening in the world as a whole tripled, maybe even like 10x, the discoveries that we used to expect to take 10 years and the technological progress we used to expect to take 10 years. If that happened every year, and then we compounded on that the next one, and the next one and the next one. That to me would feel like superintelligence had arrived."

We live in truly exciting times.
Click to expand...
About as likely as having an alien civilization paying us a visit.
 
IndyIan said:
Yeah, maybe mostly independent AI will always be 1000 days away? ;)
I also think chemistry or physics modelling, materials science, where AI could model and try 1000's of things should help speed some experiments along?
Click to expand...
JimPghPA said:
Fusion power plants will always be only 3 years away, instead of always being 30 years away.
Click to expand...

Fuel cells have been five years off for the last 30 years…

JeffKeryk said:
Interesting times ahead. I love this stuff. And I respectfully disagree with all of you.
Click to expand...
Interesting times for sure. Doesn’t mean that a computer will know when it is right or wrong, or within the realm of ethics.
 
JHZR2 said:
Interesting times for sure. Doesn’t mean that a computer will know when it is right or wrong, or within the realm of ethics.
Click to expand...
This is the question many have. Who can say where this will go? But it's coming, so better us then them.

Ethics? Some would pose the same question about people...
 
Here ya go!
1735183420133.webp
 
Pablo said:
Never heard of Intellicence.

Are we done with AI already?

I mean this crap promises much, but does what?

Seems like our freedoms are less, our general intelligence lower, the happiness of mankind has stalled out. I say fix the small stuff first.
Anything like this always, always should start with "Does this provide mankind with more freedom and liberty?" If not, throw it in the hopper.

And I am still waiting on what exactly AI has done in the last 3-5 years to help the average Jane.
Click to expand...
Mare than you know.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernar...pplications-of-ai-everyone-should-know-about/
 
JeffKeryk said:
Artificial General Intellicence, aka AGI, development has us at the precipice of an inflection point.
Sam Altman predicts superintelligence will trigger a 10x surge in scientific AI breakthroughs.

Superintelligence may be defined as an entity that surpasses humans in overall intelligence or in some particular measure of intelligence.

I do not believe this can be over emphasized. From Sam Altman, OpenAI CEO:

"If the rate of scientific progress that's happening in the world as a whole tripled, maybe even like 10x, the discoveries that we used to expect to take 10 years and the technological progress we used to expect to take 10 years. If that happened every year, and then we compounded on that the next one, and the next one and the next one. That to me would feel like superintelligence had arrived."

We live in truly exciting times.
Click to expand...
AI would be best used for providing inspiration under the guidance of human input. This will enhance human creativity and productivity and enable finding approaches and solutions to complex problems in all fields without putting away with humans. I know someone working on this and progress has been astonishing. This is accomplished with an LLM. A singularity is not far off.
 
vavavroom said:
AI would be best used for providing inspiration under the guidance of human input. This will enhance human creativity and productivity and enable finding approaches and solutions to complex problems in all fields without putting away with humans. I know someone working on this and progress has been astonishing. This is accomplished with an LLM. A singularity is not far off.
Click to expand...
The point of my post is, the computer age and now AGI have served to accelerate the rate of change and will continue to do so.
I humbly suggest people think big because that will still sell tech short. This is beyond huge.

Humans will need to find stuff to do. Robots do not come to work with hangovers or ask for a raise.
 
JeffKeryk said:
Artificial General Intellicence, aka AGI, development has us at the precipice of an inflection point.
Sam Altman predicts superintelligence will trigger a 10x surge in scientific AI breakthroughs.

Superintelligence may be defined as an entity that surpasses humans in overall intelligence or in some particular measure of intelligence.
Click to expand...
I disagree with both the definition and the underlying premise.

I did a pretty fair amount of work in optimization research while at Boeing; see Practice Question 2 as to what I was involved in (Page 24 of 25):

https://web.stanford.edu/group/sisl/k12/optimization/MO-unit1-pdfs/1.1optimization.pdf

AI is nothing more than a set of enhanced optimization algorithms and search functions developed and programmed by humans with intelligence, so there cannot be any earthly intelligence greater than that developed by the human mind. Superintelligence is a pipe dream that is good for marketing.

AI and optimization are simply mathematical tools that can be imbedded in various applications to speed up searching and decision-making.

Machine learning is nothing more than feedback from a "machine" that can modify the code for more efficient operation.

Read the Wiki explanation under Techniques as optimization being the basis for AI:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence
 
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