People driving less / motor oil prices?

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842
Location
Florida
Thread starter
Because of 19-DIVOC many people are working from home and doing less driving these days. Just wondering what you fellas think about the future of motor oil prices? By future I mean the next 18 months or so.
 
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4,446
Location
Pittsburgh,PA U.S.A.
I do not work in the oil industry, and my opinion is just that, an opinion, but I do not expect the price to go down much if any. There is a lot involved in keeping up with the changing demands of motor oil, just think of the changes that have gone on in the last couple of years. 0W-20 has become much more available from many more brands, and 0W-16 is coming out, the changes to prevent LSPI, such as dexos 1 Gen 2, and the reduction of demand for xW-30 oils, and even if the demand goes down, they have to recoup the investments of reformulating and many other overhead costs such as shipping, which may be higher per item sold if fewer are sold. And there is little incentive for the manufacturers of motor oil to lower the prices.
 
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1,627
Location
Cincinnati, USA
It won't make much difference because there are fools out there that keep promoting the urban myth that you need to change your motor oil based on some period like "once a year" even if there is no logical, science based reason to do so. I take that back, humans are forgetful creatures and rounding off the interval may have some scientific backing in that regard.
 
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4WD

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13,176
Location
Texas
Once a year is not the problem ... was not long ago I watched a young guy at Walmart try to up sell an oil change to a guy getting a battery. Why? He had over 3 months on Pennzoil Platinum ... I had to say something
 
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13,343
Location
1/2 hr N.E. of Detroit
Originally Posted by 1978elcamino
Because of 19-DIVOC many people are working from home and doing less driving these days. Just wondering what you fellas think about the future of motor oil prices? By future I mean the next 18 months or so.
Nobody here has the 'for sure' correct answer. I doubt the oil makers - or even Trump, knows for sure what 1-18 more months will bring..
 
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MolaKule

Staff member
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21,321
Location
Iowegia - USA
Let's keep this A-political shall we? I see prices going up on the newer oils because the additive packages are getting more expensive due to the increased testing the additive makers have to do to qualify those additive packages and suggested formulations.
 
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1,879
Location
NoVA
I see prices going up for no other reason than the economy of scale being reduced. Fewer drivers, if this holds up another 6months, means less auto oil being made. I don't think the additives will play to much as SP was delayed so long that most SN/SN Plus probably was either really close or already meet SP/GF6 spec. The last thing of play will be the oil price. It does not have as much affect on auto oil prices as the mixing, additives, shipping, etc... cost more than the raw oil now. That and oil producers are starting to limit their production so I don't see any long term major jumps/decreases in oil pricing on the horizon. So stock up on the great clearances going on right now as oil prices are probably as low as they will go.
 
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744
Location
New Hampshire
I don't motor oil prices follow gas prices all that closely (want to say I've read that in the last, as this question has been asked before). And just like before...nope, oil prices did NOT drop with fuel prices. From what I've seen oil prices have been pretty stable and low the past few years. There's two manufacturers that always seem to run rebates from February to September...and that's Mobil1 and Pennzoil. I have no idea if Pennzoil is running their rebate right now, but Mobil1 is. I've done both, never had a problem with either, but Pennzoil got the money out quicker. Last year I must have used rebates on Rotella Gas Truck five times (Pennzoil owned). I also cashed in on Autozones ridiculously good clearance sale last fall. A lot of people on this site bought 50 plus quarts of synthetic oil at or less than $2 dollars a quart. Myself as well.
 
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6,710
Location
SE British Columbia, Canada
"People are driving less." Yes, but this is old news. The amount of driving can be measured by gasoline consumption which is mirrored by gasoline production. Except for the initial build of gasoline stocks, the two trace each other. Back in April, driving was 40% lower than normal. In late June is was only 15% lower than normal. Things are changing fast.
 
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2,400
Location
Deep in the heart of Jersey
If supply and demand were the only factors driving the prices of oil and gas, You might think that's what sets prices. If you've watched the market in the last few years, this years virus has cut into profit's of unsold product and normal seasonal increased use is also a factor. And a few months ago the price of crude oil sunk to -$38 a barrel. What that should turn out to be is, being the oil was below free to buyers, the price of oil and gas should also drop. But it won't. The mfgrs still want to make the same profit margin , regardless of what they pay for oil, and demand doesn't matter. The selling price will still be the average of what it has been selling for. Why? Because the regulatory agency's aren't interested or can't do anything about it. If restrictions on movement get eased in our country, you can bet the price of oil products will go up. People driving more going back to work, more planes flying, more boat use,I don't think cruise ships anywhere are sailing now. Personal and commercial buss's, basically any thing that uses fossil fuel. The trucking industry has been moving pretty close to normal as the items for life still need to be delivered.,,
 
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35,779
Location
ME
They could also close the motor oil factories and let the workers stay home safe. This question could be about tire prices, headlight bulbs, or any other automotive consumable. I know bike tires are well nigh impossible to obtain. The manufacturers are stabbing the dark trying to figure out how much of *everything* they should make, and big industry can't turn on a dime. You'll see some overstocks and shortages in everything when the supply vs demand gets screwed up. We'll be swimming in N95 masks at some glorious point in the future!
 
Messages
553
Location
MA
While it's true most of us have driven many fewer miles during CV-19 and OCIs have been extended as far as time, I'm not going to run out and change my oil at 2500 miles instead of 5000 miles just because Mobil knocked a few dollars off the price. In other words, I do not think lowering oil prices will increase demand significantly. The net result would be selling low volumes of oil at discounted prices. Unlike gasoline prices, I don't see motor oil tied to the price of crude oil.
 
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Messages
861
Location
New York
I think as stated above that prices for the SP era oils will increase marginally. However, I think the Corona oil crunch may be more reflected in some of the clearances of SN/SN+ oils that are probably a bit more aggressive and wider ranging than otherwise might have been. I think this will continue until the end of the year IMHO...
 
Messages
596
Location
Georgia
As long as I can just pay the taxes and nothing else on the annual 60 quart closeouts I can get every year, they can price it however they like. The only issue that concerns me is the oil change intervals. Some models may be unable to handle the 10k OCIs that are becoming more en vogue.
 
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