Hurricane Dorian, FL residents?

Messages
24,425
Location
Central Florida
Originally Posted by bubbatime
All the gas stations in my town are wiped out - no gas at all for 100,000 people. No water in the stores. EVERY canned food item gone. If it's in a can. It's gone. Even the vegetables. This is nuts. The storm is still 3 days out and not forecast to hit my area at all. Just left Walmart and it looks like an honest to god zombie apocalypse. Insane!
I was in south FL before and after Hurricane Andrew in 1992. It was very bad cause so many people didn't prepare. Andrew had some rain but nothing like other hurricanes that drenched the areas it hit. Most people are in hunker down mode until the winds die down. I'll be working Sat-Tues cause it's required of our contract.
 
Messages
6,037
Location
Florida
Most of the models have it turning North before it gets into the gulf. It may miss the US if it slows down a little.
 
Messages
6,037
Location
Florida
Newest models have it hammering SE FL for 24 hours. A nightmare. My prediction from watching the models evolve is that it turns North and doesn't make landfall in FL. Of course if you live in an evac area do not listen to my prediction.
 
Messages
842
Location
Florida
Thread starter
Honestly folks, I dont really think we will have a good idea where this storm will land until Sunday. I only get on BITOG at work, so hope to hear everyone does well during the storm when I get back to work later in the week next week. If our area is without power it wouldent supprise me to get a call back to work under the huge emergency generators.
 
Messages
611
Location
US
Got family on Florida's West Coast, about an hour west of Orlando. Will check in to see how they are doing today.
 
Messages
6,773
Location
Fort Lauderdale, FL
I've done what I can for my home, business, and employees. I've dismissed everyone not necessary to keep running trailers to get people's boats out of the water and into the warehouse or yard. I have pretty massive supplies of everything due to the nature of my businesses. Good luck and Godspeed to all.
 
Messages
8,449
Location
Virginia
Originally Posted by 1978elcamino
Honestly folks, I dont really think we will have a good idea where this storm will land until Sunday. I only get on BITOG at work, so hope to hear everyone does well during the storm when I get back to work later in the week next week. If our area is without power it wouldent supprise me to get a call back to work under the huge emergency generators.
This ^^↑^^ Is exactly right... There is really no way to know exact track this far out... And I would not be surprised if storm does not make landfall at all on Florida coastline. There will be effects from the storm... But maybe no eyewall making landfall... that is a possibility here. If upper level trough to the northwest is strong enough it will force the storm to miss the coast in Florida... That and strong high pressure to the northeast of the storm building off the coast of New England could have a big impact on the storm goes too past next Tuesday... Interested parties north of Florida need to be aware of latest developments... All the way northward to Wilmington NC and outer Banks of NC. .
 
Last edited:
Messages
5,326
Location
Da Swamp
At the 2:00 advisory the National Hurricane Center showed a track with a sharp NNW turn so that the path appears to go near Orlando: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/175641.shtml?cone#contents (Click the "track on" button to see that path.) I know a retired couple who are visiting, and he's doing some consultant work, in the Keys. He's putting her on a bus to Gainesville, GA, and plans to ride it out. I sent her the link above and suggested they read the advisories too before he decides to stay. They're from Ohio and have never been through a storm like this before.
 
Messages
8,449
Location
Virginia
One note of interest to me is the trend the past 48 hours... Track has been slowly trending towards a recurve track... Whereas before it was a surpressed track going west across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico.. A slow trend in forecast models is significant. A sudden large scale change in a single model run is not to be taken too seriously. . And this has been a slow trend the past 48 hours... Obviously Florida is first in the firing line of this storm... However If I was in Charleston SC or Wilmington NC to the NC outer banks I would be staying abreast of the latest information. One other factor of note here... Forecast model intensity is very, very difficult... Typically hurricanes picked up by a western approaching upper level trough experience wind shear which weakens the hurricanes quite a bit... The Westerlies are a saving grace for people in my area and coastal NC... Example... Hurricane Isabel in 2003 was originally forecasted to be a cat 4 at landfall with sustained winds of 140 mph... Well the upper level trough from the West introduced enough westerly wind shear to drop the storm to 105 mph at landfall... Even though that happened and was a great thing... A will of gust of 109 mph hit Gywnn's Island in Mathews county to the east of me... And Yorktown coast guard station has a gust to 97 mph... Imagine adding 35 mph to those winds... A whole different ball game that's for sure... Only the Long Island Express hurricane of 1938, Hurricane Hazel in 1954 and Hurricane Hugo in 1989 made landfall north of the Florida/Georgia border that did experience a lot of weakening from the Westerlies upper level winds shear... However many, many, many other hurricanes did weaken significantly from that weather phenomen. In this circumstance this may well be the case yet again... But there's no way to know for sure this far out in time.
 
Last edited:
Messages
2,094
Location
GoVols
Watching now at 10:45pm eastern Already a cat 4 Eastern Florida residents leave leave leave It's not worth your lives to stay Structure can be rebuilt Lives can't !!!! Hope all here in that area are safe !👍👍
 
Messages
2,005
Location
california
It might be a good thing for the US, perhaps not the Bahamas though, that this thing is rapidly intensifying now, and perhaps near its peak, as few storms can maintain their peak intensity for long, even in the western Pacific where hot water extends to deeper in the ocean. The physical size of this storm is still small, but growing. No matter how often it is repeated, to not concentrate on where the exact center of the cone of doom lies, it seems people outside this center line seem to feel they are safe as long as the projected center of that cone is not atop their location if they can even find their location on a map. I have a sister in Orlando, and informed her that the center of the cone of uncertainty was now directly over the coastline and had been trending east the last few official updates, and she though she was out of the woods, and I had to wreck her Friday night with logic and facts and say even with that track, she could see 80mph or higher gusts. Even if the center line proved to be correct the eye could be 50 miles wide and 15 miles thick, and outerbands outside the eyewall often spawn tornadoes well away from storm center. Florida is flat and hot and moist, the land itself is not going to induce teh same relatively rapid weakening as some other landfall locations could, and if half the storm remains over the gulf stream as it travels north at swift walking speed. along the coastline....... The EWMCF and GFS models trending more eastward, is no guarantee they will continue to do so, but ultimately the center of the eye could decide to not make landfall, even though the eyewall could. We and "they" wont know the size of the storm, or the diameter of its eye, nor the thickness of the eyewall when it approaches the portion of the coast it ultimately decides to approach. Dorian is likely to break some intensity records in the next 12 to 24 hours, and we can hope that it cannot maintain that strength and sucks drier more stable air into its center, and churns up cooler water from below, to induce weakening.
 
Messages
8,449
Location
Virginia
The models continue to be trending towards a receive track... There's good reason for this too... Upper level trough approaching is now being introduced as a directing force with this system. Also lowering of intensity as hurricane moves northward is indicative of Westerlies shearing the system causing disruption of storms near the center of the hurricane. Which makes perfect sense... That pattern I first saw with Hurricane Gloria in 1985 where it went from 150 mph down to 110 mph... Hurricane Floyd in 1999 went from 150 down to 110 in similar fashion before making landfall at Cape Fear near Wilmington NC... Again... If I were in Charleston SC and northeast to Cape Fear to Cape Hatteras... I would be very closely monitoring forecast updates. . . This ain't my first rodeo.... I know hurricane climatology really, really well... And having learned how to interpret computer models for a long time now I have a idea what's going on and why.. . In 2003 with Hurricane Isabel I told everyone I was in contact with 5 days before that storm hit we were in for a major event... Similar to Hurricane Hazel in 1954... And that proved extremely accurate. Plus knowing my region had made up a large scale rainfall deficit of 18-20 inches in the previous 10 months leading up to Hurricane Isabel's landfall I knew a whole, whole bunch of trees were going to fall down... And they certainly did... Many were without power 2-4 weeks in my area, the Richmond area and even northern Virginia... One home in Yorktown had 6 large pine trees fall through it during Isabel... That neighborhood was decimated in Isabel... The road heading back into that nice neighborhood was so covered by trees that they basically cut a tunnel through the downed trees to get out and in that area. It was incredible. I was not totally surprised. Funny yet true deal... Right before superstotm Sandy I was getting a banana and two Chobani yogurts and I told the guy checking me out that I was not remotely concerned... Everyone else was buying all kinds of stuff and full carts... I laughed.. I told him that storm making landfall to the north of my area was all I needed not to be concerned. I did tell him if he ever saw me shopping like everyone else with loaded carts... Then it is on like Donkey Kong. And it's darn serious LOL
 
Messages
2,005
Location
california
Seems 2 of 3 hurricane hunter aircraft are down with broken windshields. The one remaining recently found slightly higher pressures north of the storm than expected and that high pressure is responsible for the westward movement. Could see the next official update at 11AST with the path moved back west a smidge.
 
Messages
8,449
Location
Virginia
The models continue to show a definitive recurve track with this system. . At 11 pm advisory the track forecast has not moved hardly. I would still be very concerned and staying keenly aware of the forecast anywhere from Charleston SC northeast to Wilmington NC and northeast to Moorhead City and Cape Hatteras... This whole exercise should remind everyone at the Weather Channel to not be such drama queens days 4-5-6 days out in a forecast time frame... UNLESS there is exceptional agreement among many forecast models that far out in time.... Like Hurricane Isabel... Which had all the models clustered within a 75 mile landfall location 5 days out before landfall. In that circumstance those models stayed remarkably consistent run to run all the way to landfall.
 
Messages
8,449
Location
Virginia
Who in the world is that 4wd ?? LOL By the way.... Last year.... With Hurricane Florence.... I called that 7 days ahead of time... Now that was not dumb luck. I have a doggone good idea what I am looking at in regards to forecast models.... Like one of my favorite basketball players Byron Scott said, " it ain't talking [censored] if you can do it". LOL
 
Last edited:
Top