Airlines, will they survive?

[fdcg27]

Originally Posted by Passport1


Life is going to change. We won't be returning to the status quo ante in our lifetimes.



I don't know how much life you have behind you, but I've seen six decades and counting.
One of the things I've observed over these years as well as in reading of history is that every age has its challenges.
Somehow, we work through them.
I suspect that we're back to pretty much status quo ante within a year.
It appears that there will be a useful vaccine or three by the end of this year and that alone will accelerate our return to pre-SARS-CoV-2 normal.
At least one such vaccine is under human trials right now.
When the threat of severe illness or even death is removed then you can bet that the number of butts in seats for all airlines will see a sudden upswing.
Wife and I will be among those passengers on more than one flight.
We have places to go and people to see as do so many of our fellow countrymen.
The only questions that remain is with what airlines we'll be flying and at what cost.

 

[Wolf359]

Originally Posted by fdcg27
Originally Posted by Passport1


Life is going to change. We won't be returning to the status quo ante in our lifetimes.



I don't know how much life you have behind you, but I've seen six decades and counting.
One of the things I've observed over these years as well as in reading of history is that every age has its challenges.
Somehow, we work through them.
I suspect that we're back to pretty much status quo ante within a year.
It appears that there will be a useful vaccine or three by the end of this year and that alone will accelerate our return to pre-SARS-CoV-2 normal.
At least one such vaccine is under human trials right now.
When the threat of severe illness or even death is removed then you can bet that the number of butts in seats for all airlines will see a sudden upswing.
Wife and I will be among those passengers on more than one flight.
We have places to go and people to see as do so many of our fellow countrymen.
The only questions that remain is with what airlines we'll be flying and at what cost.


Yeah, people are acting like it's the end of the world. But the spanish flu was worst and most people seem to have forgotten about it. Things were back to normal after a couple years and then there was the roaring 20's.

 

[fdcg27]

The misnamed Spanish flu was our last national experience with a deadly and high communicable virus and there were no vaccines and no anti-viral drugs as well as no genome sequencing nor any tests for it.
The nation and the world survived and went on.
Of course, there was also no internet nor even TV to spread alarm through the population.
There were many steamships carrying goods and people everywhere to spread the virus. Even some sailing vessels remained in commercial use in 1918.
No need for airliners since ship travel only delayed the spread by a couple of weeks at most.

 

[Wolf359]

Originally Posted by fdcg27
The misnamed Spanish flu was our last national experience with a deadly and high communicable virus and there were no vaccines and no anti-viral drugs as well as no genome sequencing nor any tests for it.
The nation and the world survived and went on.
Of course, there was also no internet nor even TV to spread alarm through the population.
There were many steamships carrying goods and people everywhere to spread the virus. Even some sailing vessels remained in commercial use in 1918.
No need for airliners since ship travel only delayed the spread by a couple of weeks at most.


Oh yeah, there were theories that it actually originated in the US among other countries but due to the war and censorship, it was thought to come from Spain. Pretty much every other country had a different name for and basically blamed it on another country. In Spain, it was called the French flu.

 

[grampi]

Here's my take on this shut down and the economic recovery afterwards. I would say the businesses that don't come back were probably on shaky legs before the shut down. Businesses that provided products, or services that will still be in demand after the economy re-opens will re-open, or new businesses will open to provide those goods. Our economy has always, and always will operate on supply and demand. It won't be any different this time around...

 

[Mr Nice]

Originally Posted by grampi
Here's my take on this shut down and the economic recovery afterwards. I would say the businesses that don't come back were probably on shaky legs before the shut down. Businesses that provided products, or services that will still be in demand after the economy re-opens will re-open, or new businesses will open to provide those goods. Our economy has always, and always will operate on supply and demand. It won't be any different this time around...


Yep. I agree. Tons of business had slim cash reserves before CV hit.

Equity to debt charts of airlines show some were in bad shape before CV.

 

[4WD]

Yeah, but there was a Wall Street analyst in every bush asking why are you sitting on so much cash that's not making me any money …
I'm not sure companies could be expected to survive somebody who wakes up in the morning and says … eh, let's stay shut down until the end of July … and don't challenge me boy …
And that person is sitting on prime IPO insider stock that's doing great …

 

[bbhero]

I agree 4wd...

"Shut downs" that are "mandatory" were put in place by some of those people who have never even run a lemonade stand...

Easy to "do" and tell others to do that.... When they aren't paying those bills...

And the vast majority of businesses in this country are small businesses. Which in many cases don't have huge amount of capital just sitting around...


Maybe I'm am off here... But I think there's much more going on here then meets the eye...

 

[grampi]

Originally Posted by bbhero
I agree 4wd...

"Shut downs" that are "mandatory" were put in place by some of those people who have never even run a lemonade stand...

Easy to "do" and tell others to do that.... When they aren't paying those bills...

And the vast majority of businesses in this country are small businesses. Which in many cases don't have huge amount of capital just sitting around...


Maybe I'm am off here... But I think there's much more going on here then meets the eye...


Yep, those who never missed a paycheck are telling those who haven't had one in months they can't work. I guarantee you if the governors weren't getting paid, our economy would've opened by now, if it was ever shut down in the first place...

 

[supton]

Originally Posted by Wolf359
Originally Posted by fdcg27
The misnamed Spanish flu was our last national experience with a deadly and high communicable virus and there were no vaccines and no anti-viral drugs as well as no genome sequencing nor any tests for it.
The nation and the world survived and went on.
Of course, there was also no internet nor even TV to spread alarm through the population.
There were many steamships carrying goods and people everywhere to spread the virus. Even some sailing vessels remained in commercial use in 1918.
No need for airliners since ship travel only delayed the spread by a couple of weeks at most.


Oh yeah, there were theories that it actually originated in the US among other countries but due to the war and censorship, it was thought to come from Spain. Pretty much every other country had a different name for and basically blamed it on another country. In Spain, it was called the French flu.

I thought the French flu was similar to the Irish flu, just with lesser symptoms but with great perceived severity and more complaints.

Originally Posted by Wolf359

Yeah, people are acting like it's the end of the world. But the spanish flu was worst and most people seem to have forgotten about it. Things were back to normal after a couple years and then there was the roaring 20's.

That's my take, in a few years we'll be (mostly) back to normal. [Of course, what is normal? Ask those who worked in a steel mill, or in Detroit, or made buggy whips. Change is normal.]

I do have some concern for those still in school, or just out. Unfair hand or not, they're going to have to rise above it. Not saying they can't, just recognizing that they got an unfair hand.

 

[grampi]

Originally Posted by supton
Originally Posted by Wolf359
Originally Posted by fdcg27
The misnamed Spanish flu was our last national experience with a deadly and high communicable virus and there were no vaccines and no anti-viral drugs as well as no genome sequencing nor any tests for it.
The nation and the world survived and went on.
Of course, there was also no internet nor even TV to spread alarm through the population.
There were many steamships carrying goods and people everywhere to spread the virus. Even some sailing vessels remained in commercial use in 1918.
No need for airliners since ship travel only delayed the spread by a couple of weeks at most.


Oh yeah, there were theories that it actually originated in the US among other countries but due to the war and censorship, it was thought to come from Spain. Pretty much every other country had a different name for and basically blamed it on another country. In Spain, it was called the French flu.

I thought the French flu was similar to the Irish flu, just with lesser symptoms but with great perceived severity and more complaints.

Originally Posted by Wolf359

Yeah, people are acting like it's the end of the world. But the spanish flu was worst and most people seem to have forgotten about it. Things were back to normal after a couple years and then there was the roaring 20's.

That's my take, in a few years we'll be (mostly) back to normal. [Of course, what is normal? Ask those who worked in a steel mill, or in Detroit, or made buggy whips. Change is normal.]

I do have some concern for those still in school, or just out. Unfair hand or not, they're going to have to rise above it. Not saying they can't, just recognizing that they got an unfair hand.
In a few years? Not that what has been done already isn't a massive over-reaction, but if it takes society that long to get back to normal, we are doomed...common sense tells me we SHOULD be back to normal before the end of the year, but then again, common sense seems to be a thing of the past...

 

[PandaBear]

One thing I've learned in the last 2 decades of investment is that 1) there will always be sales that try to sell a "it hit bottom already" stories, maybe not to you but to feed the trading algorithm scanning news all day. and 2) The bottom usually happen when people are forced to sell to cover, went out of businesses, did not survive, etc. The recovery happens because some couldn't survive, so the survivors have more room to recover.

 

[supton]

Originally Posted by grampi
In a few years? Not that what has been done already isn't a massive over-reaction, but if it takes society that long to get back to normal, we are doomed...common sense tells me we SHOULD be back to normal before the end of the year, but then again, common sense seems to be a thing of the past...

Bah humbug. The Great Recession took several years to recover from. Hardly the end of the world, as cataclysmic it was. The recovery may be just as long and drawn out.

That would suck, but, what is one to do?

 

[Mr Nice]

I have a feeling with 50 million people out of work in the USA, this recovery will take twice as long as the Great Recession.

Right now it's best to hunker down and circle the wagons. Lots of very bad news still on the horizon. Avoid any debt if possible.

Upcoming housing bubble, foreclosures, evictions, non payment of property taxes, etc.... will have a major impact in the near future. Don't forget something very important in November.

 

[ZeeOSix]

The businesses that will survive and recover to some degree the best are ones that can still operate by selling on-line, item curbside pickup, function with social distancing, etc. Many businesses have already made changes along those lines. But even if they can make those operational changes to not go under, it will probably mean cutting staff to some degree. It's the people that that basically get axed permanently that will be in dire trouble.

 

[emg]

Originally Posted by grampi
common sense tells me we SHOULD be back to normal before the end of the year, but then again, common sense seems to be a thing of the past...


As far as I can see, there's no returning to 'normal' (aka the world as it was a year ago). The end of the virus scare will just be the beginning of the problems as many businesses go bust, and a lot decide they can dump their retail store or office because they can sell just as well online and work just as well with their employees at home. Many countries will be slow to open up travel, or may not open up non-essential travel again at all. Many people who'd considered opening a small business will decide not to, now they've seen that the government can shut it down at any time.

And then you have the push to bring supply chains home, which will mean a lot more jobs in some countries and far less in others.

 

[PandaBear]

We are in the middle to near the end of first wave, and summer is approaching. Assuming that it is localized to the several hot spots we have right now and not expanding further, we will have a similar recovery time in economy as SARS, which is around 2-3 years.

The next wave may hit in the Fall / Winter, or it may not. That will be a real test for long term endurance of the economy vs health crisis. It may hit places that we cannot avoid crowding, like food supply chain, infrastructure (hospital, jail, child care, nursing home, etc), and it may also permanently change consumer behaviors (no more shopping, everyone bunker up) and producer behaviors (throw in the towels for many businesses). Some of those who survived the first wave will not survive the 2nd.

Internationally, you'll see some nations run out of money to feed their people, and some nations that used to over produce will likely have limited capacity to export. We will likely permanently change what we eat because of this (i.e. Fast food will end up with imitation meat for the lowest cost entries),

 

[grampi]

Originally Posted by supton
Originally Posted by grampi
In a few years? Not that what has been done already isn't a massive over-reaction, but if it takes society that long to get back to normal, we are doomed...common sense tells me we SHOULD be back to normal before the end of the year, but then again, common sense seems to be a thing of the past...

Bah humbug. The Great Recession took several years to recover from. Hardly the end of the world, as cataclysmic it was. The recovery may be just as long and drawn out.

That would suck, but, what is one to do?

The reason I say we are doomed is because if we have this over-reaction now, what's going to happen if/when we get another flare-up of this virus? Are governors going to shut everything down again? If this is now the new norm whereas we shut down every time there's a bug going around, there never will be a recovery...

 

[PandaBear]

Originally Posted by grampi
The reason I say we are doomed is because if we have this over-reaction now, what's going to happen if/when we get another flare-up of this virus? Are governors going to shut everything down again? If this is now the new norm whereas we shut down every time there's a bug going around, there never will be a recovery...


It will be location and political specific.

Low income and high unemployment population would be the one who got hit the hardest, and they will continue to work when everyone is locked down. They will be the one with the higher infection and mortality rate. We are seeing it already, and we see them in the industry where they work with the highest infection rate.

 

[Wolf359]

Originally Posted by grampi
Originally Posted by supton
Originally Posted by grampi
In a few years? Not that what has been done already isn't a massive over-reaction, but if it takes society that long to get back to normal, we are doomed...common sense tells me we SHOULD be back to normal before the end of the year, but then again, common sense seems to be a thing of the past...

Bah humbug. The Great Recession took several years to recover from. Hardly the end of the world, as cataclysmic it was. The recovery may be just as long and drawn out.

That would suck, but, what is one to do?

The reason I say we are doomed is because if we have this over-reaction now, what's going to happen if/when we get another flare-up of this virus? Are governors going to shut everything down again? If this is now the new norm whereas we shut down every time there's a bug going around, there never will be a recovery...


What's your definition of doom? For me, doom is like the game doom where you die. Death rate is about 5-7% so even if everyone gets it, expect only 5-7% of the population to die, probably less as the estimates are that maybe 10% of the population has had it so lots of asymptomatic have had it or just many didn't get tested. Not really doomed. But maybe large parts of the economy. Last time things were really shut down was probably the Spanish Flu. I don't think they were doomed back then although when you're in the middle of it, it may certainly seem that way.