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#2492436 - 01/13/12 03:16 PM Re: Quantas A380 To Fly Again [Re: azsynthetic]
fdcg27 Offline


Registered: 09/25/09
Posts: 9235
Loc: OH
The A380 has lower costs per available seat mile than any aircraft currently available for passenger transport.
This is a simple fact, and whether you choose to accept it or not is up to you.
As a signiture line someone here uses puts it "You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts".
I own Boeing shares, so I am anxious to see Boeing do well with both the 787 and the 747-8.
Airbus has an economic winner in the A380.
Whether it will be a profitable program remains to be seen, but I am convinced that it will be.
How many US international gateways are effectively slot-limited right now?
Try going through JFK, EWR, ATL, DFW, MIA or ORD during a push and you'll better understand the appeal of a large people mover on those routes that can support it.
For many airports, more flights at departure times that make sense simply aren't possible, and concentrating passenger traffic in larger aircraft is the only available answer to ever-longer delays.
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#2492635 - 01/13/12 06:18 PM Re: Quantas A380 To Fly Again [Re: MolaKule]
azsynthetic Offline


Registered: 06/01/07
Posts: 1221
Loc: Phoenix AZ
The problem here is that you have watched too many infomercial or don't know a whole lot about airlines profitability. A lower cost per available seat mile is by no means a guarantee of profitability. Revenue per Available Seat Mile (RASM)is a commonly used measure of unit revenue for airlines and this is what the airlines show on their bottom line. The A380 can't bring in the revenue based on their projected cost per available seat mile due to other operating costs. This is demonstrated by the low number of aircrafts ordered. The current teething problems with the engines and the airframe are not helping either.

The slots availability is due mainly to the airport runway systems. The problem is not not-enough-slots overall but not-enough-slots during rush hours. Using the A380 for long distance hub to hub is fine but you're still going to need smaller aircrafts to disburse the passengers to smaller markets. These smaller aircrafts take up slots that could be saved by using the B787 bypassing the hub and going to the smaller markets directly.

Nothing proves my point more clearly than the number of aircrafts ordered. The airliners are finding out the promise of the A380 is not the solution to their earnings.

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#2492658 - 01/13/12 06:42 PM Re: Quantas A380 To Fly Again [Re: azsynthetic]
fdcg27 Offline


Registered: 09/25/09
Posts: 9235
Loc: OH
Gosh, you'd better share your wisdom with Emirates quickly.
You clearly know more than the mangement of a profitable airline does, and Emirates has 90 A380s on order.
Maybe their management watched too many infomercials too?
Please get with this company, and save them from their doom.
I value your contributions to this thread, and I'm sure many of the world's leading carriers will as well.
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#2492686 - 01/13/12 07:09 PM Re: Quantas A380 To Fly Again [Re: MolaKule]
azsynthetic Offline


Registered: 06/01/07
Posts: 1221
Loc: Phoenix AZ

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#2492702 - 01/13/12 07:22 PM Re: Quantas A380 To Fly Again [Re: MolaKule]
azsynthetic Offline


Registered: 06/01/07
Posts: 1221
Loc: Phoenix AZ
By the end of this year 2012, Emirates will have over 120 B777 in their fleet compares to may be 23 A380. When do you think Emirates will get all of their 90 A380? Where do you think the profit will come from for Emirates as we speak?


Edited by azsynthetic (01/13/12 07:26 PM)

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#2492709 - 01/13/12 07:29 PM Re: Quantas A380 To Fly Again [Re: azsynthetic]
fdcg27 Offline


Registered: 09/25/09
Posts: 9235
Loc: OH
Problem is that neither site provides any verifiable information as to the DOC of either aircraft.
One of these is a Boeing site.
No surprises there.
The other is an enthusiast's site, using presumed numbers for the A380 and Boeing's numbers for the 747-8I.
No surprises there either.
Also, the A380 has been in service for a while now, while the 747-8I has yet to be built, much less see actual use.
There are good numbers available for the A380, both DOC and CASM.
No such numbers exist for the 747-8I.
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#2492718 - 01/13/12 07:34 PM Re: Quantas A380 To Fly Again [Re: azsynthetic]
fdcg27 Offline


Registered: 09/25/09
Posts: 9235
Loc: OH
Originally Posted By: azsynthetic
By the end of this year 2012, Emirates will have over 120 B777 in their fleet compares to may be 23 A380. When do you think Emirates will get all of their 90 A380? Where do you think the profit will come from for Emirates as we speak?


WRT delivery dates, that info is on Airbus' site.
Do you think that they're taking delivery of all of these A380s to reduce their profitability?
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#2492769 - 01/13/12 08:11 PM Re: Quantas A380 To Fly Again [Re: MolaKule]
azsynthetic Offline


Registered: 06/01/07
Posts: 1221
Loc: Phoenix AZ
I work with Honeywell, the maker of the FMS for both Boeing and Airbus so I have a better knowledge of delivery date then what you see on Airbus's site. Orders can be canceled or converted to other models. The A350 is Airbus's future, not the A380 according to their management.

747-8I is already built and awaiting FAA FAI approval. Boeing has about 12 8I sitting at BFI waiting for approval. Like I said earlier, we are delivering the paperwork to Boeing and FAA as we speak. The number from Boeing is based on fuel burn at max weight, which by the way is not available from Airbus. Fuel burn is key in determining RASM since the aircraft will fly independent of the number of passengers on board. Both Boeing and Airbus use the fuel burn numbers in their sale pitches and not the actual CASM when they introduce the plane. Actual CASM varies from airlines to airlines and so is the RASM.


Edited by azsynthetic (01/13/12 08:12 PM)

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#2493116 - 01/14/12 08:59 AM Re: Quantas A380 To Fly Again [Re: azsynthetic]
fdcg27 Offline


Registered: 09/25/09
Posts: 9235
Loc: OH
An A380 will have higher fuel burn per hour than a 747-8, since it is a much larger and heavier aircraft.
An A380 also offers a great deal more floor space and volume than does a 747-8, so it can carry many more seats in whatever configuration an airline chooses than can a 747-8, which would seem to lead to lower CASM with the A380 than with the 747-8.
We'll see this theory tested once Lufthansa has their 747-8Is in service alongside their A380s.
WRT the future, the A350 and the 787 are aimed at a much larger market segment than are the A380 and the 747-8.
That the smaller twins should outsell the quads is hardly a surprise.
Look at how the 777 killed both the 747 and the A340.
For that matter, compare sales of the A330 to those of the A340.
This does not mean that Boeing and Airbus can't earn a profit on their jumbos, it only menas that they won't sell as many of them as they will twins.
I think that both knew this going in.
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#2493335 - 01/14/12 01:29 PM Re: Quantas A380 To Fly Again [Re: MolaKule]
azsynthetic Offline


Registered: 06/01/07
Posts: 1221
Loc: Phoenix AZ
The airlines are not buying Airbus A380 proposal with a once class configuration for several reasons, which was Airbus main selling point. The Japanese is using the 747 in a one class configuration and therefore a lower CASM. Also, the 8I can be easily converted to 8F configuration whereas the A380 cannot. The A380 is a program in trouble due to low sales, high purchase price, few available destinations and few customers positioned to make use of the aircraft's design capability. It's break even point is estimated currently around 500 aircrafts and they only have half that 11 years after introduction.

The break even point for the 747-8 is less than 300 orders due to commonality with the 747-4. The 777 is not killing the 747 per Boeing, but a replacement. The 747 series will become freighters, the 777 derivatives will replace the 747 as jumbo passenger planes, the 787 derivatives will replace the 777 as the mid size and the 737 derivatives will pick up the rest.

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#2493443 - 01/14/12 03:33 PM Re: Quantas A380 To Fly Again [Re: azsynthetic]
fdcg27 Offline


Registered: 09/25/09
Posts: 9235
Loc: OH
The 777 killed the 747 fifteen years ago.
I'm sure that Boeing knew it would, while Airbus found the 777 an unpleasant surprise when it came to future A340 orders.
I agree that the A380 would make a poor freighter as either a new build or conversion, given that it cannot have the swing-up nose loading capability available with the 747, cannot have the upper deck floor removed and would offer significant challenges in loading the upper deck with freight.
The current A388 also has fairly high OEW and offers range not needed in a freighter.
This is probably the real reason that Airbus killed the A380F program, since the orders in hand from UPS and Fedex would not have paid for it and additional orders seemed unlikely.
The problem with selling the 747-8 as a new build freighter is that there are so many pax aircraft available for conversion, although most of the 747-8 orders have been for freighters.
Whether the airlines buy the single class idea or not is irrelevant.
Regardless of the mix of seats offered in a two or three class configuration, the A380 can hold more of them.
For routes that can support the capacity, the A380 offers better revenue potetial than any other plane available.
I really would like to see the 747-8I do well.
It just doesn't seem to be in the cards, since aside from Lufthansa, no other carrier has placed a significant order.
The A380 has seen at least some orders from most carriers that have the routes to support its capacity, as well as the access to funds to finance the purchase.
The nugatory A380 orders from some carriers are probably just a start, and the same may be true for the 747-8I.
I'd like to see both of these programs flourish over the next couple of decades, since these are probably the last quads we'll see.
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#2493945 - 01/15/12 03:01 AM Re: Quantas A380 To Fly Again [Re: fdcg27]
azsynthetic Offline


Registered: 06/01/07
Posts: 1221
Loc: Phoenix AZ
Originally Posted By: fdcg27
The 777 killed the 747 fifteen years ago.
I'm sure that Boeing knew it would,


Totally false, Boeing make both the 777 and the 747 so they control the life of both. I don't expect you to understand it since you are not involve in the Boeing's product planning like we do. Both 777 and 747-8 production lines are up and running at full tilt and Boeing will not kill the 747 program according to management and their current production lead orders with Honeywell. One more time and this is straight from Boeing management, the 747 series will become freighters, the 777 derivatives will replace the 747 as jumbo passenger planes, the 787 derivatives will replace the 777 as the mid size and the 737 derivatives will pick up the rest. The 747 is the best freighter in the world and will be for the next 20 years. It has no competition, even with the 777.

I don't think you understand CASM with respect to fuel burn. Currently A380 is only sold in the 525 seats 3 class configuration versus 747-8I 467 seats 3 class version. A380 is burning 30% more fuel for only 13% increase in passenger capacity. That is a big difference if you look at the Cost Index and ultimately RASM.


Edited by azsynthetic (01/15/12 03:07 AM)

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#2493952 - 01/15/12 03:18 AM Re: Quantas A380 To Fly Again [Re: MolaKule]
azsynthetic Offline


Registered: 06/01/07
Posts: 1221
Loc: Phoenix AZ
BTW, our R&D is working with Boeing on a multi-engine flying wing as future replacement for the 747. It has at least 4 engines and possibly up to 6. You are looking at least 10 years down the road before any introduction though.

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#2493956 - 01/15/12 04:23 AM Re: Quantas A380 To Fly Again [Re: MolaKule]
Shannow Online   content


Registered: 12/12/02
Posts: 26460
Loc: a prison island
I'd like to see someone working on lighter than air craft...

Way faster than a boat, way more fuel efficient per pound mile than a plane that needs to convert fuel into lift, and circle endlessly on destination.

I'd take an airship "cruise"
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#2494059 - 01/15/12 09:02 AM Re: Quantas A380 To Fly Again [Re: azsynthetic]
fdcg27 Offline


Registered: 09/25/09
Posts: 9235
Loc: OH
Originally Posted By: azsynthetic
Originally Posted By: fdcg27
The 777 killed the 747 fifteen years ago.
I'm sure that Boeing knew it would,


Totally false, Boeing make both the 777 and the 747 so they control the life of both. I don't expect you to understand it since you are not involve in the Boeing's product planning like we do. Both 777 and 747-8 production lines are up and running at full tilt and Boeing will not kill the 747 program according to management and their current production lead orders with Honeywell. One more time and this is straight from Boeing management, the 747 series will become freighters, the 777 derivatives will replace the 747 as jumbo passenger planes, the 787 derivatives will replace the 777 as the mid size and the 737 derivatives will pick up the rest. The 747 is the best freighter in the world and will be for the next 20 years. It has no competition, even with the 777.

I don't think you understand CASM with respect to fuel burn. Currently A380 is only sold in the 525 seats 3 class configuration versus 747-8I 467 seats 3 class version. A380 is burning 30% more fuel for only 13% increase in passenger capacity. That is a big difference if you look at the Cost Index and ultimately RASM.


B747 orders since 1995: 395, out of 1524 total
B777 orders since 1995: 1363

I think it's fair to say that the 777 killed the 747.
It isn't Boeing who controls the life of the program, either.
The viability of any program is determined by the willingness of carriers to place orders at prices that allow Boeing or Airbus to produce the aircraft profitably.
This is the reason that the 757 and the A300 programs were terminated, along with the 717 and the A340.
The only reason that Boeing kept the 767 alive was that it was betting on winning the tanker contract, which it did.
To say that the future of the 747 is as a freighter is merely to observe what's been happening in the real world for some years.
How many pax 747 have been converted to freighters?

I probably don't have as much knowledge as do you of the operating economics of airliners, but you are being disingenuous
in your comparison of a 467 seat 747-8 and a 525 seat A380.
You are well aware that the A380 at 525 seats has a considerably greater proportion of high yielding premium seats than does the 747-8 at 467 seats.
As you noted in one of your posts, it is the airline that determines the seat mix and the seat count, up to the numbers an aircraft is certified to carry.
It is telling that the Lufthansa 747-8s will carry only 386 seats, while their A380s carry 526 seats.
The Lufthansa A380s carry 35% more seats than their 747-8s, so their A380s offers superior CASM based on fuel burn using your fuel burn figures.
You are well aware that were the 747-8I to offer CASM superior to the A388 as typically configured by the airlines, the 747-8I order book would be a great deal fatter than the current 36 frames.
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