Spot the Oil Game!

[jpr]

How much can you figure out from the wear metal results from a UOA?

Below are results of UOA's from BMW M54 engines taken between about 7500 and 13,500 miles, all done by Blackstone. Oils are about the same SAE grade, and API SL or SM.
Oil A Al 4 Fe 37 Cu 3 Pb 1
Oil B Al 4 Fe 18 Cu 7 Pb 9
Oil C Al 5 Fe 10 Cu 11 Pb 3
Oil D Al 3 Fe 18 Cu 5 Pb 1
Oil E Al 4 Fe 37 Cu 3 Pb 1
Oil F Al 8 Fe 15 Cu 14 Pb 2
Oil G Al 4 Fe 13 Cu 5 Pb 2
Oil H Al 7 Fe 11 Cu 13 Pb 2
Oil J Al 2 Fe 8 Cu 5 Pb 1
Oil K Al 3 Fe 13 Cu 5 Pb 1

So here's the quiz questions:
1.Which oil is a 10W-XX?
2.Can you group the oils by mileage? Under 10k? 10k to 12k? Above 12k?
3.Can you tell which four of these samples are from the same car?
4.Can you tell which three of these samples are from the same oil?
5.Can you tell which three of these samples are from the another oil?
6.Which manufacturer's oil is not represented - Amsoil, Castrol, Mobil, Redline, Royal Purple, or Shell?

Have fun playing and no fair cheating by searching in the UOA section!

 

[MGregoir]

1. A
2. C, G, H, J, K under 10,000. F, D and B 10-12,000. A and E are over 12,000.
3. A, B, E, G.
4. F, G, K.
5. Oil J.
6. Royal Purple.

 

[jpr]

MGregoir, you got close on some questions, but none are entirely correct.

But among things, it shows I need to clarify questions 4 and 5 -
Of the 10 samples, 3 are from one oil, 3 are from another oil, and the other four are unique.
So list one group of 3 oils in question 4 and one in question 5.

The mileage question is a hard one, so I think it is reasonable to give a hint - 3 oils are under 10k, 4 are 10k to 12k, and 3 are over 12k.

Also, if after you've made your guess, let me know if you'd like me to PM you the answers.

 

[jpr]

Boy - 140+ views to date and only one soul brave enough to hazard a guess?

As an alternative to guessing, does anybody want to theorize about why these might be hard questions and what that implies about oil choices?

 

[Pablo]

No conditions (weather, area, driving style,mpg etc), no engine types, no other indicators (K,Na, S, coolant, viscosity, etc), no additives - just makes this a silly craps shoot. Some even think you have an agenda and are trying to "prove" something.

I actually think it's a GOOD thing that people here aren't just throwing guesses out. Shows that folks at BITOG are thoughtful enough to realize there is no way to know what an oil is simply by 4 wear metals.

 

[jpr]

Well, it is a game, but I assure you there is no specific agenda beyond pursuit of greater understanding.

As for the data presented, it's derived from what's available. The info comes from UOA's here at BITOG and consists solely of what is available from the Blackstone report. I cut it to the 4 wear metals as I figured including the additive levels, etc. wuold make it too obvious which oil was which, and then the agendas would pop up.

But I was curious to see how much could be deduced from a "blind-taste test". The correct may very well be "not much." But considering the frequency with which bold definitive claims made either for and against products, one would think this would be easy for some people. My suspicion though is that there is often a lot of Cum hoc ergo propter hoc reasoning going on and oils are often evaluated by brand name first and foremost.

 

[BennyL]

why don't you just tell us which one is which

 

[BennyL]

by the way, your use of latin correlation fallacy terms is actually very impressive. i like!

 

[Pablo]

I'm 100% sure plenty of faulty reasoning is applied by amateurs "reading" UOA's. Some folks go as far as saying UOA's are completely useless, because they don't really show true wear or wear may be inverse to the dissolved ppm detected......lots of thought in this area. I tend to think the more wear in the system, the more ppm's in solution…..with some cautions, because not all wear metals go into solution at the same rate, the size and type of wear materials may vary greatly, etc.

However, I think when even the most bold claims are made about a UOA the factors I mention are taken into account. If not, people are quick to smack down the UOA responder. You know the typical - "dude your Fe is high" and next poster says "Dude - it was a 20,000 mile run" or "dude - it was the first UOA, on a factory fill"……... Sure people miss things….but the coolant leaks, the high Si and solids, the shearing from 11 to 9 cSt, etc are easy to spot.

 

[XS650]

Originally Posted By: jpr
Boy - 140+ views to date and only one soul brave enough to hazard a guess?



"Brave" wasn't the fist word to pop into my minds when I saw the response

 

[Pablo]

Originally Posted By: XS650

"Brave" wasn't the fist word to pop into my minds when I saw the response

I don't care who you are!!

 

[jpr]

Okay, here's the answer to #2:

Under 10k - B, C, J
10k to 12k - D, F, G, and K
Over 12k - A, E, H

Also, 3 UOA's are from Mobil 1 0W40 and 3 are from BMW Synthetic. Anybody want to guess which ones?