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#1100846 - 03/07/08 02:29 PM Re: Good news [Re: Pablo]
Turk Offline


Registered: 02/03/06
Posts: 8059
Loc: MN
 Originally Posted By: Pablo
 Originally Posted By: tpitcher
Ok, yea, got it now...

TMA down 26% right now. Hummm...


I just bought 500 shares for $600. Let it roll.



I decided not to buy TMA, so you'll do absolutely fabulous !!

\:\!

_________________________
03 GMC Sierra 4x4 200k, M1 TDT
00 Saturn SL2 89 YO Lady Car. 84k Miles! PU
98 Saturn SC2 "Red Hot" PYB + LubeGard + Kreen
97 Camry 212k Maxlife


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#1100918 - 03/07/08 05:11 PM Re: Good news [Re: Turk]
Al Offline


Registered: 06/08/02
Posts: 13581
Loc: Elizabethtown, Pa
 Originally Posted By: tpitcher

I did a big research analysis on Int'l funds as I rolled over my 401k and wanted to get in one of the best Intl. funds available and DRIDX came up..
Nice long term track record and performer, eh?

Certainly good. These are my top 3 performers.

FNORX Fidelity Nordic
VEIEX Vanguard Emerging markets
FICDX Fidelity Canada

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=DRIDX...ource=undefined

The first one I have since 2000
The last two only 1.5 years. Ireally like the Canada Fund

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#1100966 - 03/07/08 06:17 PM Re: Good news [Re: Turk]
Oldmoparguy1 Offline


Registered: 01/21/05
Posts: 4096
Loc: Charlotte, NC
 Quote:
I decided not to buy TMA, so you'll do absolutely fabulous !!


Thanks, I appreciate it. When I saw that I went and bought another 2900 shares at 1.30.

Oh, and Pablo, don't faint...

(I've been known to play 6's & 8's the hard way).
_________________________
"Political language is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind." George Orwell

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#1100982 - 03/07/08 06:38 PM Re: Good news [Re: Oldmoparguy1]
Pablo Offline


Registered: 10/28/02
Posts: 46711
Loc: Duvall WA - Pacific NW USA
I got in at 1.1999. \:\! So not gonna pass out.

FDIVX is about the same as DRIDX.

I got good prices on MVV and SSO.

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#1101020 - 03/07/08 07:57 PM Re: Good news [Re: Pablo]
Shannow Online   content


Registered: 12/12/02
Posts: 27051
Loc: a prison island
 Originally Posted By: Pablo
I got good prices on MVV and SSO.


They floated the Critic ???
_________________________
2003 Nissan ZD30 TD, 4L Penrite R 5W30, 3L M1 5W50, Nulon 5W20
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Briggs Quantum, Chief SAE30.



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#1101022 - 03/07/08 07:58 PM Re: Good news [Re: Pablo]
Turk Offline


Registered: 02/03/06
Posts: 8059
Loc: MN
Pablo,

If it goes up for ya, you can thank me.

If it goes down, blame Oldmoparguy1 because he jinxed ya.

_________________________
03 GMC Sierra 4x4 200k, M1 TDT
00 Saturn SL2 89 YO Lady Car. 84k Miles! PU
98 Saturn SC2 "Red Hot" PYB + LubeGard + Kreen
97 Camry 212k Maxlife


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#1101296 - 03/08/08 05:23 AM Re: Good news [Re: Al]
VeeDubb Offline


Registered: 08/15/02
Posts: 2058
Loc: Indiana
Al, keep your eyes on that DBC as we approach the Fed meetings.

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2008/03/commodity_price_1.html

I'm putting some stop-loss orders on my commodities just in case the Fed undercuts.
_________________________
Everybody's got plans.....until they get hit.

-Mike Tyson



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#1101310 - 03/08/08 06:39 AM Re: Good news [Re: VeeDubb]
Al Offline


Registered: 06/08/02
Posts: 13581
Loc: Elizabethtown, Pa
 Originally Posted By: VeeDubb
Al, keep your eyes on that DBC

Nice article and thanks for the "Econbroser"..nice source.

I am out of Commodities for about a month. My last involvement was OIL..in at 90 out at 100 for 100 shares. I did GLD a couple months back. I got out when it was still in the 800's. Its just too high a risk for me. And I'm not sure how much more there is to go.

My lessons have come at a high cost, but I learn them. I got burned in the 70's when gold spiked to 800 bucks for a day and the next day it was at 400 or so. You couldn't get out then (no ETF's)

I'm strictly into currencies except for some foreign mutuals. That's my Flight to Safety"


Edited by Al (03/08/08 06:49 AM)

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#1101375 - 03/08/08 09:20 AM Re: Good news [Re: Oldmoparguy1]
Pablo Offline


Registered: 10/28/02
Posts: 46711
Loc: Duvall WA - Pacific NW USA
 Originally Posted By: PF
Thornburg Mortgage (NYSE: TMA) came out with further announcements that it has additional reverse-repurchase agreement deals that are bringing further margin calls, given the continued massive selling in the general mortgage securities market.

The cash needed is more than what was built up earlier this week in its shift from the reverse repos to traditional financing against the company's whole loan assets.

All of its bank, broker and other financial counterparties have agreed to sit through the end of today. Thus far, they've all mutually agreed to extent the no-action on a day-by-day basis until a permanent workout is put into place.

The company's woes aren't new, yet the workout isn't as dire right now as many headlines are screaming in the media.

In addition, the company is restating its asset values on its annual and quarterly statements to better reflect the market value of its assets and portfolio of mortgages to indicate current mark to market values. Again, this is good news.

And the company has stated that its full book value under Generally Accepted Accounting Practices (GAAP) is still more than $8 a share.

Also, management states that it will continue to resolve the short-term liquidity issues and bring long-term value to shareholders.

At this point, these words shouldn't be taken lightly.

Here's what we're doing. Just as we wrote yesterday, selling doesn't make any sense. This also goes for the 8 percent bonds due in May 2013 as well as the preferred shares, including the 8 percent and 10 percent dividend rate preferreds.

We'll continue to follow the ongoing evolution of its capital and liquidity and will look for a resolution in the coming days.

A lot is being reported in the larger market that's hyped and inaccurate. As a result, we're including the following statement directly from the company.

Thornburg Mortgage announced today that the company has received a letter dated March 4, 2008, from its independent auditor, KPMG LLP, stating that their audit report, dated February 27, 2008, on the company's consolidated financial statements as of December 31, 2007, and 2006, and for the two-year period ended December 31, 2007, which is included in the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2007, should no longer be relied upon.

As a result, the company's Board of Directors determined that the financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2007, should be restated.

The company noted that difficult market conditions that have resulted in a significant deterioration of prices of mortgage-backed collateral, combined with a liquidity position under unprecedented pressure from increased margin calls by its reverse repurchase agreement lenders, a portion of which the company has been unable to meet, have raised substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern.

In addition, the Company may not have the ability to hold certain of its purchased [adjustable rate mortgage] ARM assets to recovery and, accordingly, on March 5, 2008, the Company concluded that a $427.8 million charge for impairment on its purchased ARM assets is required as of December 31, 2007, in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles.

Based upon a review of credit ratings, delinquency data and other information, the company does not believe these unrealized losses, for the most part, are reflective of credit deterioration.

The company believes that this restatement of its consolidated financial statements will not have a material impact on the company's book value at December 31, 2007.

In the company's 2007 Annual Report on Form 10-K filed on February 28, 2008, the company reported GAAP book value as of December 31, 2007, of $8.36 per common share, compared to a GAAP book value of $8.40 per common share, after reflecting the effect of the preliminary restatement of the company's 2007 consolidated financial statements.

The increase in book value is attributable to the company's elimination of the fourth-quarter performance fee payable to the company's manager, which increased the book value by $0.04 per common share.

Thornburg Mortgage President and Chief Executive Officer Larry Goldstone noted that companies are required to value their asset portfolios at the price that the portfolio could be sold in the market as of the financial statement date. Companies must recognize a loss in the income statement if they are not able to hold the assets until their value is recovered, even if those companies have no intention of selling their portfolios.

"The mortgage financing market's complete inability to differentiate and appropriately value superior AAA-/AA-rated mortgage securities from all other mortgage assets is as unprecedented as it is frustrating," said Mr. Goldstone. "Our portfolio of mortgage-backed securities has exhibited exceptional credit performance and comprises loans that are among the most solid in the industry. Quite simply, the panic that has gripped the mortgage financing market is irrational and has no basis in investment reality."

The company had readily available liquidity of approximately $580.0 million at December 31, 2007. Through the close of business on March 6, 2008, the company had received $1.777 billion in margin calls since December 31, 2007, and had satisfied $1.167 billion of those margin calls primarily by using its available liquidity, principal and interest payments and proceeds from the sale of assets. As of close of business on March 6, 2008, the company had outstanding margin calls of $610.0 million which significantly exceeded its available liquidity at that date.

The company has entered into a temporary syndicate agreement with its remaining reverse repurchase agreement counterparties which freezes additional margin calls through Friday, March 7, 2008, while the company pursues solutions to its liquidity shortfall.

This agreement is renewable at the option of the company's lenders and the company. Through the close of business on March 6, 2008, the company had received notices of event of default under reverse repurchase agreements from four different lenders.

The company is working to meet all of its outstanding margin calls within a timeframe acceptable to its lenders, through a combination of selling portfolio assets, issuing collateralized mortgage debt and raising additional debt or equity capital.

Since December 31, 2007, and through the close of business on March 6, 2008, the company has reduced its portfolio of ARM assets financed with recourse financing by approximately $4.6 billion, of which $1.9 billion has been permanently financed in order to reduce its exposure to margin calls. The company also has raised $488.0 million in equity capital since December 31, 2007, and seeks to raise additional capital in order to provide a more stable base of liquidity during a period when the company expects market conditions to remain difficult for at least several months.

The $427.8 million impairment charge resulted in a decrease in management fees of $300,000 and the elimination of the fourth quarter performance fee of $5.4 million. The company intends to reflect the revised financial information in an amended Annual Report on Form 10-K/A.

Noting that Thornburg Mortgage's executive team is working relentlessly to meet its outstanding obligations to its reverse repurchase agreement lenders, stabilize its lending platform, and increase its liquidity position, Mr. Goldstone concluded, "We are committed to implementing initiatives that will resolve our current liquidity issues so we can deliver long-term growth, continue as a going concern, and ensure stability for our shareholders and for the company."

Thornburg Mortgage is a leading single-family residential mortgage lender focused principally on prime and super-prime borrowers seeking jumbo and super-jumbo adjustable-rate mortgages. The company seeks to deliver value and steady growth for its shareholders by acquiring high-quality mortgage-backed securities, and growing its share of the mortgage loan origination business.

Capitalizing on its innovative portfolio lending model, REIT tax structure and leading-edge technology, Thornburg Mortgage is a highly efficient provider of specialized mortgage loan products for borrowers nationwide with excellent credit.

Certain matters discussed in this press release may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, such as our plans to raise additional capital, our ability to continue as a going concern, and the long-term impact on our business.

These forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections, and are not guarantees of future performance, events or results. The words "believe," "anticipate," "intend," "aim," "expect," "will," "strive," "target," "project," "have confidence" and similar words identify forward-looking statements.

Actual results and developments could differ materially from those expressed in or contemplated by the forward-looking statements due to a number of factors, including general economic conditions, our ability to raise additional capital, our ability to retain or sell additional assets, the impact of additional margin calls, the receipt of additional notices of default under reverse repurchase agreements, our ability to timely file an amended Form 10-K/A, market prices for mortgage securities, interest rates, the availability of ARM securities and loans for acquisition and other risk factors discussed in the company's SEC reports, including its most recent annual report on Form 10-K. The company does not undertake to update, revise or correct any of the forward-looking information.

For further information, contact Clay Simmons or Suzanne O'Leary Lopez of Thornburg Mortgage at 505-989-1900 or e-mail ir@thornburgmortgage.com.

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#1101418 - 03/08/08 10:27 AM Re: Good news [Re: Pablo]
Turk Offline


Registered: 02/03/06
Posts: 8059
Loc: MN
I'll watch TMA super close Monday and see if there looks like hope to make $$$$.
_________________________
03 GMC Sierra 4x4 200k, M1 TDT
00 Saturn SL2 89 YO Lady Car. 84k Miles! PU
98 Saturn SC2 "Red Hot" PYB + LubeGard + Kreen
97 Camry 212k Maxlife


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#1101459 - 03/08/08 11:44 AM Re: Good news [Re: Turk]
Pablo Offline


Registered: 10/28/02
Posts: 46711
Loc: Duvall WA - Pacific NW USA
Here's praying for TMA. On yesterday's close, I'm only down a few hundred bucks, so let's just shoot for 2-3-4-5.....

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#1101811 - 03/08/08 07:56 PM Re: Good news [Re: Pablo]
cmhj Offline


Registered: 10/20/06
Posts: 1169
Loc: SE Pa
What follows is the complete weekend update sent to all trading members and partners. >>>>>>>>

If this weekendís update had a title it would be, ďAll good things must come to an endĒ.

What a roller coaster huh? Well, it was expected. It was also expected that as we entered March things would get wilder.

We could stay with this whipsaw theme for 6-8 more weeks & base out per the pattern projection since X-Mas eve. The other option is we get a final and very big plunge followed by the reverse signal from last fall within a month or so.

We had been looking for the Jan. lows to go unless the projected pattern we were in held.

The Fri. action has broken the projected pattern weíve traded for the past 3 months with the mid morning doji. While one anomaly doesnít bake the cake, we have more evidence.

With the early Fri. doji alert, which was dead on followed by the late afternoon price level violation we have additional evidence. Even though the price violation was less than .5% Iíll be back on bear alert if we get one more confirming signal.

If we see another midweek high much like was forecast to occur for last week that should be the clincher.

While the March 8 cycle still appears important, should the pattern turn on us projections suggest April levels of 1220 - 1160. This then should give us a reversal signal from last fall instead of these constant pattern buy & sells if the price levels come into play by or before mid April.

Now, if all the above happens this is good for another reason. That will take out of the long-term forecast of a sideways to slightly lower into mid-year, which was the original thinking if we got a first quarter plunge. This could make April our annual low instead of midyear.

So the bottom line is this. Letís take a deep breath & be patient a bit longer. I know many are looking to jump in this week on any weakness. Letís hold off and see how this plays out even if we do get some weakness into midweek.

If we get a pattern buy signal thereíll be plenty of opportunities to climb in, as we should stay somewhat in a sideways theme for some time. If we get a deep probe with a bottom signal Iíll again be able to get you in at or very near the true bottom.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

S/T traders>>>

Iíll be out of the room most of this week but should be able to stop by with a fast note around mid day Wed. Mon, Thurs. & Fri. will be covered but Tues. is vacant this week.

For now letís go under the assumption the pattern has changed or is about to change.

We should be up most of Mon. If so weíll then top out by Thur. if not by Wed. with the likely hood most of the S/T gains are in on Tues. This is part of the key to having busted our multi-month pattern.

I would not hold longs past Tues. Then use any further strength to build aggressive short positions. In fact, taking a small short on Tues. if weíre up should be ok when looking at the big picture.

Remember, the following week is a short week with Good Fri. Expect faster than normal expansion and compression over the next 2 weeks.

If the pattern changes it might get very wild, very fast and the next several weeks might be very spectacular.

Have a good week

The Lone Wolf
_________________________
No PC fees paid out to Amsoil dealers from me! NEVER EVER!!!

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#1101816 - 03/08/08 07:59 PM Re: Good news [Re: cmhj]
cmhj Offline


Registered: 10/20/06
Posts: 1169
Loc: SE Pa
Special note for BITOG members.

My time over the next few weeks will hinder me from appearing much on this thread. Any questions can be PMed to insure I read them. If I find them to not create a conflict Iíll post the question & answer along with the questionnaires ID on this thread as time permits.

Please, be patient with any response as I have a lot of things on my plate this week.

As previously suggested Iíll pop in with the all clear whenever that is.
_________________________
No PC fees paid out to Amsoil dealers from me! NEVER EVER!!!

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#1101855 - 03/08/08 08:36 PM Re: Good news [Re: cmhj]
Turk Offline


Registered: 02/03/06
Posts: 8059
Loc: MN
Alright - thanks again...
_________________________
03 GMC Sierra 4x4 200k, M1 TDT
00 Saturn SL2 89 YO Lady Car. 84k Miles! PU
98 Saturn SC2 "Red Hot" PYB + LubeGard + Kreen
97 Camry 212k Maxlife


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#1102835 - 03/10/08 09:26 AM Re: Good news [Re: Turk]
GROUCHO MARX Offline


Registered: 07/24/02
Posts: 11410
Loc: The Sandhills of NewYorkistan
bumpity, bump
_________________________
80% of people polled say that their neighbor should take mass transit to work.

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