Originally Posted By: bbhero
How many model forecasts have you ever looked at?? 0. I've looked at thousands of them. It's not rocket science learning how to understand and read them. Once you understand the parameters, how to interpret them, and when to take them seriously it is not all too hard. This last winter the major east coast storm I had a better idea what was going on then the world champions on local TV. .
Remember superstore Sandy?? Every person around here in southeast Va were buying all kinds of stuff for no reason. Why?? The storm was hitting north of our area and we were going to be on the weaker southwest side of it. We never lost power, minor damage. I was in line at the grocery store laughing at everyone. I had a some water 1 gallon which I buy normally anyway, two bananas, and some yogurt.
Now going back to Hurricane Isabel.... far different circumstance. This area was squeezed between high pressure to the north and the low of the hurricane, plus we were on the northeast quadrant which is the strongest part if the storm... far worse of a situation. The models were all very consistent for the last 7 days where that storm was coming ashore. That was a big deal.
I've been reading and understanding these forecast models since 2004. I don't... like you... have to rely upon what someone else thinks or interprets the models are forecasting. Eliminate the middle man. It's been very nice.
I have a ton of respect for the very good weather forecasters out there... and there are some very good ones at the local NWS Wakefield weather office. John Cash who was on channel 10 was very good as well. This area in southeast Va is especially hard in the winter time due to numerous factors.. . 1) if a storm is formed south and west of here where is the track at.. 50 miles can make a HUGE difference in what happens. 2) if the storm is forecast to form off the coast of Cape Hatteras how fast will it deepen?? 3) track of that new storm . Miller A type storms can be a bit "easier" to forecast but still can be hard. Miller B storms are very difficult for a variety of reasons. So yeah, these guys in this area have a rough time in difficult circumstances. Whereas areas north and east of here say up in the Sterling forecast area or Mt. Holly Philadelphia area usually have a fairly known quantity approaching so its a bit easier there. Though even there a difference if 50 miles in track has big impacts on what happens.
Again, I enjoy being able to take information and interpret it myself in a fashion that makes sense. Just like day after Christmas storm in 2010 here. When the fools on TV were saying 2-5 inches of snow.. I told my co workers at 3 pm that we were going to see 9-12 inches and up to 14. This was what I had figured out from the GFS and NAM models by taking the rain equivalent and changing it into snow using a 12:1 ratio. I broke it up into 6 hr blocks of time (from the models time UTZ) and came up with 9-12 possibly more. Well well... by 6 pm the champions on TV finally figured out what I had 12 hrs earlier in the day.... and greatly changed their forecast and said EXACTLY what I had told my co workers earlier. And I told them that I just didn't pull the numbers out if thin air... I had done the math, upper air thickness values were supportive of snow, and the track was in line for a big event for Southeast Va. And guess what?? Norfolk had 14.3 inches if snow. The hospital had close to that much as well. And, I didn't need anyone else to figure it out for me. But, you do.
I took a couple of meteorology classes back in college and although my depth of understanding forecast models isn't as good as yours I understand what you are talking about and you would be better than most meteorologists. The ones around here except for one forecast what the models tell them and can't forecast more than 2-3 days in advance reliably, at best.
How many model forecasts have you ever looked at?? 0. I've looked at thousands of them. It's not rocket science learning how to understand and read them. Once you understand the parameters, how to interpret them, and when to take them seriously it is not all too hard. This last winter the major east coast storm I had a better idea what was going on then the world champions on local TV. .
Remember superstore Sandy?? Every person around here in southeast Va were buying all kinds of stuff for no reason. Why?? The storm was hitting north of our area and we were going to be on the weaker southwest side of it. We never lost power, minor damage. I was in line at the grocery store laughing at everyone. I had a some water 1 gallon which I buy normally anyway, two bananas, and some yogurt.
Now going back to Hurricane Isabel.... far different circumstance. This area was squeezed between high pressure to the north and the low of the hurricane, plus we were on the northeast quadrant which is the strongest part if the storm... far worse of a situation. The models were all very consistent for the last 7 days where that storm was coming ashore. That was a big deal.
I've been reading and understanding these forecast models since 2004. I don't... like you... have to rely upon what someone else thinks or interprets the models are forecasting. Eliminate the middle man. It's been very nice.
I have a ton of respect for the very good weather forecasters out there... and there are some very good ones at the local NWS Wakefield weather office. John Cash who was on channel 10 was very good as well. This area in southeast Va is especially hard in the winter time due to numerous factors.. . 1) if a storm is formed south and west of here where is the track at.. 50 miles can make a HUGE difference in what happens. 2) if the storm is forecast to form off the coast of Cape Hatteras how fast will it deepen?? 3) track of that new storm . Miller A type storms can be a bit "easier" to forecast but still can be hard. Miller B storms are very difficult for a variety of reasons. So yeah, these guys in this area have a rough time in difficult circumstances. Whereas areas north and east of here say up in the Sterling forecast area or Mt. Holly Philadelphia area usually have a fairly known quantity approaching so its a bit easier there. Though even there a difference if 50 miles in track has big impacts on what happens.
Again, I enjoy being able to take information and interpret it myself in a fashion that makes sense. Just like day after Christmas storm in 2010 here. When the fools on TV were saying 2-5 inches of snow.. I told my co workers at 3 pm that we were going to see 9-12 inches and up to 14. This was what I had figured out from the GFS and NAM models by taking the rain equivalent and changing it into snow using a 12:1 ratio. I broke it up into 6 hr blocks of time (from the models time UTZ) and came up with 9-12 possibly more. Well well... by 6 pm the champions on TV finally figured out what I had 12 hrs earlier in the day.... and greatly changed their forecast and said EXACTLY what I had told my co workers earlier. And I told them that I just didn't pull the numbers out if thin air... I had done the math, upper air thickness values were supportive of snow, and the track was in line for a big event for Southeast Va. And guess what?? Norfolk had 14.3 inches if snow. The hospital had close to that much as well. And, I didn't need anyone else to figure it out for me. But, you do.
I took a couple of meteorology classes back in college and although my depth of understanding forecast models isn't as good as yours I understand what you are talking about and you would be better than most meteorologists. The ones around here except for one forecast what the models tell them and can't forecast more than 2-3 days in advance reliably, at best.
