A plan to get the price of oil down............

Amkeer · Mar 31, 2005

One thing we need to remember here is the longer the oil prices stay high the more truckers will go out of business. It is of no benefit to the masses that oil prices are higher. We are already seeing double digit increases in food prices. This will only continue to increase as long as the cost to transport/manufacture continues to go up.

Even with lower consumption worldwide they will still attempt to manipulate the prices higher.

Amkeer · Mar 31, 2005

quote:

Originally posted by oilyriser:
Last year, I asked the owner of a small taxi fleet if fuel was a significant cost in his business. He said it was about 4 or 5% of total expenses. Gasoline would have to be $15 a gallon before it would have a critical effect on the economy.

Its this kind of thinking that will have us screwed!

DKT · Mar 31, 2005

Sorry, I don't believe the price of oil can be manipulated over the long term - sure daily/weekly impact. Look at currency markets. I can recall several times with the Yen was falling and the Japanese Government poured hundreds of millions of dollars into the market to keep the Yen strong. Ultimately they failed.

We lived in England from 1992 to 1995, and the pound was falling. The government couldn't overcome the market forces with whatever they tried.

From Business Week 3/28/05:
OIL:
@ $25-30 Oil mined from tar sands feasible
@ $35-40 Liquified Coal, and processing Sugar to Alcohol feasible
@ $40 and up Oil from Shale feasible

NATURAL GAS

DKT · Mar 31, 2005

Sorry, I don't believe the price of oil can be manipulated over the long term - sure daily/weekly impact. Look at currency markets. I can recall several times with the Yen was falling and the Japanese Government poured hundreds of millions of dollars into the market to keep the Yen strong. Ultimately they failed.

We lived in England from 1992 to 1995, and the pound was falling. The government couldn't overcome the market forces with whatever they tried. And they too spent like crazy to no avail.

From Business Week 3/28/05, pg 38:
OIL $56 PER BARREL (Price at time of article)
@ $25-30 Oil mined from tar sands feasible
@ $35-40 Liquified Coal, and processing Sugar to Alcohol feasible
@ $40 and up Oil from Shale feasible

NATURAL GAS $7.13 PER MILLION BTU's
@ $2.50 TO $4.00 Imports of liquefied gas feasible
@ $3.50 to $4.00 New production off Gulf Coast feasible
@ $4.00 and up Production from western Canada feasible

ELECTRICITY $50 PER MEGAWATT-HOUR
@ $33 New Nuclear Plants feasible
@ $41 Wind Power feasible
@ $112 Solar Power feasible

I think industry will react and much of these alternates will work their way into the economy. It will take time, but it will happen.

I remember I read an article several years ago about how OPEC had lost all of it's influence. This was several years after the oil embargo of the '70's when they had the US by the *****. They may be back now, but it is just a matter of time before the current price makes alternates affordable.

MAJA · Mar 31, 2005

quote:

Originally posted by W.T.McGlynn:
Subject: Stop the Madness

The price of crude has reached the point where it's feasible to get our oil from Shale.

We would not need oil
from anywhere else.
This is no bull.
Check it out.
¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬

I agree totally. The only problem is that prices have to remain high for this "shale oil" to be processible and utilized, as it stands now. If the price of crude goes down, then it becomes easier(cheaper) to make gasoline out of regular liquid crude. A catch 22 dilema. The "oil shale" deal is almost like an ace in the hole, or savings in a bank (reserves). The attitude almost is "lets use the other guys (arabs) stuff, and when it gets too high, then lets develop our "reserves". Problem is, it needs to be developed quickly. Someone needs (and I am sure it is being worked on) ways to get this oil shale out more economically. Can anyone comment on this?

The "boycott days" does not make much sense to me if we do not cut back on our consumption. It would mean lines, and waiting, to fill up on nonboycott days. The incandescent bulb ban would be great. Also, as is common around my rural home, limit the use of these "security light" or as we call them "mercury lights" that burn all night. Everyone has them. Why light up your yard all night with these? Our freeways and roads have way too many also. You can almost drive without your lights in some places. In fact, years ago I got pulled over at night because I did not have my lights on, because it was so bright. I think its called light pollution, technically. How much could we save by eliminating half of these?

[ April 01, 2005, 09:54 AM: Message edited by: MAJA ]

andrews · Mar 31, 2005

quote:

Whatever plan that might be used to get oil prices down, there needs to be a federal tax that keeps it at a higher rate or else people will go right back to their lazy - huge SUV/AWD - lack of respect of the value of petroleum - ways.

Tax? Punish people? Man oh man, what in the world has gotten into some of you folks.

quote:

Ban on the sale of incadescent light bulbs.

Oh, that will fix it.

quote:

Knowing we have to keep travelling since our infrastructure requires it, the only solution is conservation. Tax the heck out of new large displacement vehicles starting immediately but that will kill the domestics. Caught in a vise.

Exactly, unless you allow supply and demand to work. The free market always has a way of making things work in the end.

quote:

One thing we need to remember here is the longer the oil prices stay high the more truckers will go out of business. It is of no benefit to the masses that oil prices are higher. We are already seeing double digit increases in food prices.

True and very troublesome. Want to pay 5 bucks for a head of lettuce?

Time and time again, this board argues about the supply of world oil. The suggestions go from radical to extreme. Taxes.....to force people to do what you believe they should, is socialism. Another thing that bothers me is the fact that so many of you complain about SUV's and other larger vehicles, while at the same time you're traveling the world in jet aircraft....consuming huge amounts of fuel while you
selfishly explore the "enlightened" world. Get real here folks, traveling on an airliner, for a vacation, is certainly as wasteful (fuel usage per year by airline travel is staggering) as owning an SUV.
Prices will rise, and we will adjust. People will eventually use more fuel efficient vehicles, except the wealthy. Industry will refocus. Companies will come up with energy solutions in order to make profits. The world will not come to an end, the free market sysytem will do it's job, but not without a few expected hiccups along the way.
I don't know, but so many people on this board are true doomsday advocates and seem to have no faith in mankind. Everything will work out in regard to energy usage. We're human beings with brains, driven to do better and accomplish great things. Relax.

MAJA · Mar 31, 2005

quote:

so many people on this board are true doomsday advocates and seem to have no faith in mankind. Everything will work out in regard to energy usage. We're human beings with brains, driven to do better and accomplish great things. Relax.

Well, Andrews, I know you are refering to me, and my post yesterday. I deserve it. I was having a bad series of moments yesterday, and tended to contradict myself and be negative. I agree with absolutely everything you just posted. In some of my earlier posts on other threads, I am eternally optimistic about the new ideas and technologies coming. Yes I do believe that we are smart and will adapt. But I think our wasteful ways will get the better of us, if we arent carefull. So its starts with each one of us.

What bothers me somewhat is that todays large SUV's and big thirsty trucks become tomorrows (5-15 years from now) lower class primary transportation and "beaters". So the more fortunate have choices in more effidient, while the larger "less fortunate" have fewer choices. We might be strugling for a while.

But I am generally optimistic and looking forward to all the new ideas and advances to come in the near future.

andrews · Mar 31, 2005

Maja,
Good post. A more positive attitude and a look back into history, will often prove in the adaptability and genius of the human being.
Yes, we do many, many idiotic and self destructive things, but in time, we learn. The planet won't self destruct over the oil issue. Hard times and change may indeed be coming, and yes, people will resist until they have no choice....but change we will. I just get tired of the "disaster film" kind of mentality that we will all surely be doomed. Nothing of the kind will happen. Greater threats exist in the world such as terrorism, immorality, hate, envy, and in my mind, socialism. We will do just fine in the coming decades (and I'm a negative guy).

Al · Mar 31, 2005

quote:

Originally posted by andrews:
Tax? Punish people? Man oh man, what in the world has gotten into some of you folks.
.

And your solution would be to lower all the State and Federal gas taxes as was proposed by some? (increasing demand-and raising the prices to the pre-tax removal era-increasing State/Federal Debt)

At this point it is too late to rais taxes probably. You'll be happy to know that the increases will go to speculators and Arabs (instead of to ourselves)

But seriously the taxes..if properly handled 30 years ago would have:

Driven conservation which would have:

Made us (if done properoy) energy independent today. Hard to understand how that's punishing us considering our dependence today (with rising prices)

This dependence has already stiffled the economy (just out yesterday-fewer jobs added bc of higher energy costs), caused weakening of the dollar, driven our ballance of trade in the crapper, added to out deficit, and pretty much driven us to a limited option strategy for future energy needs.

GROUCHO MARX · Mar 31, 2005

If you want to spend less on oil, the first step is to use less.

andrews · Mar 31, 2005

quote:

But seriously the taxes..if properly handled 30 years ago would have:

Driven conservation which would have:

Made us (if done properoy) energy independent today. Hard to understand how that's punishing us considering our dependence today (with rising prices

Taxes would have stifled our economy, made the government richer, given more power to a select few, empowered socialism, and turned our nation into something akin to Canada. (No offense guys).

quote:

But right now all this will do is kill the economy even further.

Exactly Jason!

quote:

The market which in part created the problem will ultimately solve it (Supply and demand principles)

Al, this is what it will all come down to....as it should in this country. Capitalism is the solution, not socialism.

quote:

So, Andrews, I am forgiven?

Lol, of course Maja!

quote:

On second thought....NO...That doesn't make sense at all Al. Shouldn't do it now and shouldn't have 30yrs ago!

It's working real well for Europe. >11% unemployment in Germany. Increase taxes and we'll be lucky to be like them

Way to go Jason! It's important that us like-minded folks speak up when the frightened start talking taxes. It's like some sort of guilt driven, suicidal thing. In reference to what even "tax solution" Al said, the free market will solve everything.

GROUCHO MARX · Mar 31, 2005

Amkeer, I would think prices drop along with demand. Kind of like the stock market.

Gary Allan · Mar 31, 2005

quote:

so many people on this board are true doomsday advocates and seem to have no faith in mankind. Everything will work out in regard to energy usage. We're human beings with brains, driven to do better and accomplish great things. Relax.

No ..I have full faith in mankind ..to do whatever those in power feel aids their self interests ..which may or may not have any vision beyond the next quarterly report.

Look at the Roman Empire. Technologically advance beyond all the barbarian world ..and master of just about all of it ...yet we had the dark ages.

Don't think for one minute that our future can't look like Blade Runner ..or Soilent Green. In fact ..I bet you can bank on it. There will be authoritarian and socialistic adoptions of governing merely to assure that the society can function ..and that too will be dysfunctional. You are looking at the beginning of much more of the same degradation that we've gotten used to.

We go on the assumption that "magic" will save us. It, for all of known history, has. The mystery of "magic" had been unfolded ..and we've prospered from the expansion of knowledge. This assumes a expotential ..or factorial learning curve ..which doesn't appear to be forthcoming. We've gone from an unthrottled expansionist quest for knowledge ..to "trying to afford to learn" global society where research has to compete to stay alive.

I'm sorry ..but I'm too politically paranoid from a futurist stand point. I view our current consumption mode as a recipe for disaster. When the taps run dry you will have a world population in crisis ..massive industrial populations with dwindling resources ...shortages ..famines...plagues.. and all of it administered by a very few.

quote:

Tax? Punish people? Man oh man, what in the world has gotten into some of you folks.

Why do you call this punishment? It's paying your toll to consume more than you need. Your consumption is a tax on all those who do conserve. If you can't afford the tax ..drive a more economical vehicle. If you need to move more people ..buy a minivan. So do I deseve to be punished for your excessive and self indulgent consumption ..just so you can drive around in a vehicle that is too big and too thirsty? Aren't you riding on sensible people's backs??

I think this attitude stems from two things. Severe adversion to taxes ..and the fact that people feel that they should be able to make whatever choices that they want ..and not suffer the consequences. Everyone wants to "have the other guy" pay for everything ..and if they can get away witout paying for what they want ...great.

It has no hint of global social responsibilty and concern for the future. I'm not going to depend on the future in my attitude on things. You have to look no further that our current debt, ss, medicare ..all these things were in the future ..and we had faith in them ..yet they are going to take their toll upon us ..at least those who expect to live that long. Where is this "future faith" brought us in the present??? What track record do you base any "better" expectations on??

Sorry ..the future is NOW ..and it looks like there is only 'worse' contained within it.

rpn453 · Mar 31, 2005

quote:

Originally posted by andrews:
Time and time again, this board argues about the supply of world oil. The suggestions go from radical to extreme. Taxes.....to force people to do what you believe they should, is socialism. Another thing that bothers me is the fact that so many of you complain about SUV's and other larger vehicles, while at the same time you're traveling the world in jet aircraft....consuming huge amounts of fuel while you
selfishly explore the "enlightened" world. Get real here folks, traveling on an airliner, for a vacation, is certainly as wasteful (fuel usage per year by airline travel is staggering) as owning an SUV.
Prices will rise, and we will adjust. People will eventually use more fuel efficient vehicles, except the wealthy. Industry will refocus. Companies will come up with energy solutions in order to make profits. The world will not come to an end, the free market sysytem will do it's job, but not without a few expected hiccups along the way.
I don't know, but so many people on this board are true doomsday advocates and seem to have no faith in mankind. Everything will work out in regard to energy usage. We're human beings with brains, driven to do better and accomplish great things. Relax.

I strongly agree with all of this, except for the labelling of arbitrary market manipulation as socialism.

andrews · Mar 31, 2005

quote:

Don't think for one minute that our future can't look like Blade Runner ..or Soilent Green. In fact ..I bet you can bank on it.

See, more of this Hollywood version of the future. Pure garbage made for entertainment.

quote:

No ..I have full faith in mankind ..to do whatever those in power feel aids their self interests ..which may or may not have any vision beyond the next quarterly report.

Wow, how do you get up in the morning without blowing your brains out?

quote:

Why do you call this punishment? It's paying your toll to consume more than you need. Your consumption is a tax on all those who do conserve. If you can't afford the tax ..drive a more economical vehicle. If you need to move more people ..buy a minivan. So do I deseve to be punished for your excessive and self indulgent consumption ..just so you can drive around in a vehicle that is too big and too thirsty? Aren't you riding on sensible people's backs??

You pay for what you WANT, not what you need my friend. Taxing somebody because you or the government decides we don't NEED it, is pure hogwash! How arrogant of you! I'll bet I can look around your house and find plenty of things you don't NEED.....should I have the right to decide that you should be taxed for these items because they use up our resources? Geez guy!

quote:

Severe adversion to taxes ..and the fact that people feel that they should be able to make whatever choices that they want ..and not suffer the consequences.

People suffer consequences from decisions all the time....what are you talking about? Are you saying that you and the government should decide how we should live our life? Do you know what the U.S. Constitution is all about? Anybody that wants to purchase a large vehicle should have the right to do so. You suggest taxing them for this choice....a form of punshment. How silly and socialistic you are!

quote:

What track record do you base any "better" expectations on??

What track record? What history books did you read in school? Must be revishionist garbage if you don't understand the truimps of the human condition in the past five hundred years.
Your negativity is exactly what we DON'T need in order to solve our current issues. Wow, how can you be so down on things and have ANY enjoyment in life? Go get a beer and relax.

andrews · Mar 31, 2005

quote:

strongly agree with all of this, except for the labelling of arbitrary market manipulation as socialism.

rpn453,
It's not the market manipulation that smacks of socialism per say, it's the reasoning (or lack of) that seeks to force people to conform to the ideals of the "collective"....through taxation.

Gary Allan · Apr 1, 2005

ah ..we're heading to a thread lock ..but anyway..

Andrews ..you obviously are a conservative ..no problem with that ..freedom of choice (shh..the golden rule - he who has the gold ..rules) ..let the chips fall as they may ...

..but we really don't practice this as a society ..under any form of governess. It's always twisted in a manner that panders to the segment of the mob with the most voting clout. Why do you think SUVs were expempt from CAFE for so long? It was just to allow those of excess to keep doing what they were doing without paying the consequences. It bolstered profit ..where none could be realized otherwise.

So ..you think that it's fine to be on the advantage side of "equality" ..but don't want to pay anything in things that are not equal in your circumstances. United we stand ..but we tend to hide as individuals

This is like most humans...bill anyone ..except me. I'll come up with more than enough reasons why "the collective" should bear all burdens ..and "I" should have all advantages. Landfill? Trash to steam plant?? Great ideas!! ..but anywhere but around me!!

Same mentality..

quote:

Must be revishionist garbage if you don't understand the truimps of the human condition in the past five hundred years.

500? Try 50. Sorry ..this ain't a situation of putting the wood cutter guild out of business. We're at near full saturation for global resource exploitation ..and the demand is growing. With your disposition ..everything may be consumed on a basis of current capability ..regardless of the future consequences. This is a "throw a party! ..I'll be dead before the crap hits the fan anyway!"

Might I inquire what demographic you belong to??

There is a big smile on my face!!

andrews · Apr 1, 2005

quote:

Might I inquire what demographic you belong to??

Yes, I am conservative in most respects. I'm 42, married, work in aircraft manufacture, Christian, vote primarily republican, not even a high school grad (GED), no college, pro military, self taught, patriotic, bull headed, opinionated, brown haired, brown eyed, loves hiking, dog is a man's best friend, kind of guy.
Anything I'm missing? Oh yeah, I hate Okra!

( And Oprah as well, lol).

MAJA · Apr 1, 2005

quote:

With your disposition ..everything may be consumed on a basis of current capability ..regardless of the future consequences. This is a "throw a party! ..I'll be dead before the crap hits the fan anyway!"

This is in reference to Andrews? I actually, on this post and others, find Andrews the opposite.

I think we have beaten this dead horse enough. No more interesting ideas or differing opinions to debate on. Just posturing and politicizing. Lets move on.

andrews · Apr 1, 2005

Agreed Maja, I'm getting burned out!

A plan to get the price of oil down............

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