The Electric Car Revolution Is Scheduled for 2022?

[OVERKILL]

Originally Posted By: IndyIan

At some point in the future buying power from the grid will only be for those without space for their own panels.


If they get the density up. And then you still need a storage mechanism capable of sustaining your normal load patterns for when the PV cells aren't producing. With a grid tie-in solution, of course those "issues" are mitigated by the give/take relationship but at some point that's going to become a revenue issue for the utility, not to mention the balancing act of dealing with all these feeds coming and going offline.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out, I know it has been a problem for Germany when they shut down their nukes.

 

[IndyIan]

Originally Posted By: OVERKILL
Originally Posted By: IndyIan

At some point in the future buying power from the grid will only be for those without space for their own panels.


If they get the density up. And then you still need a storage mechanism capable of sustaining your normal load patterns for when the PV cells aren't producing. With a grid tie-in solution, of course those "issues" are mitigated by the give/take relationship but at some point that's going to become a revenue issue for the utility, not to mention the balancing act of dealing with all these feeds coming and going offline.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out, I know it has been a problem for Germany when they shut down their nukes.

It does all hinge on cost effective storage solutions, like batteries, or maybe something else.
Eventually though someone will figure it out, as it costs big money to keep the grid up and running when there's gigawatts hitting roofs most days.

 

[CT8]

I will add sin some circumstances and locations an electric car could be wonderful .

 

[old1]

Actually, I could use a small electric, as both the wife and I are retired, and 90% of the time, if not miles, we don't put more than 20 miles per day on the car. Of course when we go to the "big city" 80 to 90 miles one way, we would need the regular car. Also that means we don't have enough garage space. Right now I have 2 classics and the good car in the garage, and the old pickup is outside.

 

[Garak]

That pretty much sums it up right now. The electric car currently is fine for someone who is able to afford other vehicles to cover off when the electric isn't practical, and the space to store everything.

 

[KrisZ]

I have a feeling somebody misunderstands the term revolution.

 

[HTSS_TR]

Originally Posted By: KrisZ
I have a feeling somebody misunderstands the term revolution.

The "Revolution" in this case means “the unsubsidized total cost of ownership of BEV will fall below that of an internal combustion engine vehicle.”

As of now, without Federal and some state subsidizes BEV costs much more than ICE.

 

[KrisZ]

Originally Posted By: HTSS_TR
Originally Posted By: KrisZ
I have a feeling somebody misunderstands the term revolution.

The "Revolution" in this case means “the unsubsidized total cost of ownership of BEV will fall below that of an internal combustion engine vehicle.”

As of now, without Federal and some state subsidizes BEV costs much more than ICE.


If the unsubsidized cost falls that low overnight, then it would be a revolution, otherwise it's as slow as molasses evolution that all products go throughout their life cycle.

 

[HTSS_TR]

Only few years ago nobody predicted that similar size, performance, features ... of BEV will be lower than ICE. Only now someone has a gut to say that BEV ownership cost will be lower in less than 10 years.

 

[Traction]

After a very short drive in a, 1 of 300 Tesla Roadsters, all I can say is, bring on the "Flux Capacitor"

 

[The_Eric]

Originally Posted By: 3800Series
Just think of all the people paying 35 cent a KWH now and how much it will rise in the future to "keep up with" demand. That and the battery's that will need to be replaced every few years that cost an ridicules amount now. The long charge times, and the very limited range. Just think of the joy of going cross country in a vehicle that needs to charge for 8 hours to go 250 miles.

Just think of all the good we can do if we move away from powering our vehicles with gasoline and diesel and start powering them by coal burn plants.

I'm not buying, I never trust anything that only list pros.


To be fair, you're basing these assertions on present day info. Who knows what it will be like by the time 2022 rolls around? The way technology keeps advancing I wouldn't be surprised if all the issues you've pointed out are resolved, or at least addressed.

 

[3800Series]

Originally Posted By: The_Eric
Originally Posted By: 3800Series
Just think of all the people paying 35 cent a KWH now and how much it will rise in the future to "keep up with" demand. That and the battery's that will need to be replaced every few years that cost an ridicules amount now. The long charge times, and the very limited range. Just think of the joy of going cross country in a vehicle that needs to charge for 8 hours to go 250 miles.

Just think of all the good we can do if we move away from powering our vehicles with gasoline and diesel and start powering them by coal burn plants.

I'm not buying, I never trust anything that only list pros.


To be fair, you're basing these assertions on present day info. Who knows what it will be like by the time 2022 rolls around? The way technology keeps advancing I wouldn't be surprised if all the issues you've pointed out are resolved, or at least addressed.


That's true, but at the same time in 2022 we could have another generation of high efficiency cars. Elio Motors already makes a motorcycle/car hybrid that gets nearly 90 miles per gallon. The only way this country will transition to electric cars is if its profitable for the manufacture and the consumer. That means automotive vehicles that cheap, reliable, and contribute a value greater then that of current automotive vehicles. That demand really isn't there at this time. While there is a demand its heavily dependent on government substitutes.

These vehicles would also be powered by coal burning plants which arguably are less efficient then gasoline motors. Granted I am basing this how it is now but its just as likely by 2030 we have smaller lighter cars/hybrids that are designed specifically for economy that could get 150mpg. I see that just as possible as electric cars stone aging gasoline/diesel based cars in the next 6 years.

 

[Merkava_4]

My only concern is how electric cars will effect the hand tool industry. I'm worried that we won't have the variety of hand tools that we have today when electric cars take over.

 

[DoubleWasp]

Originally Posted By: HTSS_TR
Only few years ago nobody predicted that similar size, performance, features ... of BEV will be lower than ICE. Only now someone has a gut to say that BEV ownership cost will be lower in less than 10 years.


That's the problem with the entire electric vehicle market. It's always boasting about benchmarks, and never solving the real issues.

 

[Shannow]

http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-ev-oil-crisis/

Article makes sense.

Here in Oz, our Natural Gas prices are soaring as companies signed contracts to export gas 4 times domestic usage...has lead to NG increases (obviously), and the compressors are currently hogging 500+MW while the Gas fired generators are scaling back, pushing back to coal for provision of electricity...and seriously high prices (supply/demand) for electricity.

Grattan Institute states that this is good, as it will force consumers to make "rational" decisions regarding their choice of energy.

Neighbours are putting in wood fires, friends are putting in heat pumps (needing more electricity)...I've done the math on guy next door, whse predescessors had oil fired central heating that was replaced with gas, and is now replaced with wood...Mike could have heated his house with retail priced unleaded for what he paid for gas last year.

It's not rational, it's bonkers.

Now back to the Bloomberg article.

What I'm prediciting is perverse, but is human nature.

The proposed rise of the EVs, the requirement to provide power for them, and the oil that it displaced is, in my opinion, going to see burning of oil for power production re-commence.

At current oil prices, the energy value is not hugely greater than the equivalent energy in the form of coal (maybe 40% dearer, but that's not much when you look at what you DON't need to burn oil).

I'm throwing it out here as a prediction...rise of the EV will see the return to stationary power plants running on oil...not all, obviously.