The Electric Car Revolution Is Scheduled for 2022?

[HTSS_TR]

Research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance predict that by 2022 the unsubsidized total cost of ownership of battery electric vehicle(BEV) will cost less than ICE vehicle, by 2040 BEV will have 25% global market share from less than 1% today.

The key to that trend is the battery pack that powers the car. The pack can account for about a third of the cost of the entire vehicle. Between 2010 and 2015, the average cost per kWh dropped from $1,000 to $350, a 65 percent plunge. Prices could reach $200/kWh by 2022, and $120/kWh by 2030.

Quote:
The long-awaited, oft-delayed electric car revolution is now scheduled for 2022.

That’s according to a report from research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance, which posits that in just six years, the biggest obstacle to the sale of BEVs—they cost too much—will be obliterated and cars that run on electricity will cost less than those that run on dead dinosaurs.

“By 2022,” the report says, “the unsubsidized total cost of ownership of BEVs [battery electric vehicles] will fall below that of an internal combustion engine vehicle.” From there, the report projects a steadily increasing rate of adoption, reaching global sales of 41 million—25 percent of total market share—by 2040.


http://www.wired.com/2016/02/electric-car-revolution-now-scheduled-2022

 

[DoubleWasp]

It's a revolution!.....based on an assumption.......based on other assumptions...

Second half of the article actually goes out of the way to tell you why there's no point in reading the article in the first place.

 

[CT8]

My usual reply is where is the electricity going to come from? The grid can't hardly keep up with the states air conditioning load on hot days. Add to that charging car batteries !!!

 

[Garak]

When it's here, I'll believe it. The electricity infrastructure needs a pile of work, including in this jurisdiction, before this is even feasible, and that's ignoring the other drawbacks that may or may not be there.

SaskPower can't go a week without a major outage. How would they cope if even 10% of our vehicles go electric? They have enough troubles on a hot day with people all turning AC on.

 

[BISCUT]

Nationally electric infrastructure is akin to our roads and bridges. Best analogy I can see anyway. I'm in NY not that far from city (my home carrier is not CE) but Con Ed, exacerbated rates aside, has truly spent a fortune in BEGINNING to get these vital updates rolling in a high tech way and has really put boots to ground in trimming old growth trees that threaten lines in storms. No CE fan but they stepped up their game in the last 5 years.

All said, I'm 20 miles north of CE service and my rates are 1/3 of theirs and my carrier (Central Hudson) is not as reliant, but is pretty [censored] good in my area. I do have a 16kw LP generator but it's not needed often. In 11 years I have about 350 hours.

I dont see much of the country able to handle this without a few decades of serious federally subsidy programs, strictly monitored and focused on the goal, programs. Otherwise you will just not be able to support the rate increase necessary.

 

[3800Series]

Just think of all the people paying 35 cent a KWH now and how much it will rise in the future to "keep up with" demand. That and the battery's that will need to be replaced every few years that cost an ridicules amount now. The long charge times, and the very limited range. Just think of the joy of going cross country in a vehicle that needs to charge for 8 hours to go 250 miles.

Just think of all the good we can do if we move away from powering our vehicles with gasoline and diesel and start powering them by coal burn plants.

I'm not buying, I never trust anything that only list pros.

 

[Gasbuggy]

I'm hoping that fuel cell tech steals their thunder.

 

[Colt45ws]

Originally Posted By: Gasbuggy
I'm hoping that fuel cell tech steals their thunder.

Still a "battery"
Albeit one you can "charge" really fast.
You use electrical energy to get the hydrogen, store it, ship it, fill your tank with it, then finally get electrical energy back out of it.

 

[jhellwig]

We were supposed to have flying cars by now they were saying 60 years ago. I'll give it another 60 before we start to wean off the petroleum teat. I would like to see it happen sooner but doubt it will.

All the technology we have now and we still haven't got a viable electric car. I wouldn't say we are to terribly further than the first electric cars.

 

[IndyIan]

At some point in the future buying power from the grid will only be for those without space for their own panels.

 

[SeaJay]

Originally Posted By: DoubleWasp
It's a revolution!.....based on an assumption.......based on other assumptions...

Second half of the article actually goes out of the way to tell you why there's no point in reading the article in the first place.

How true, reminds me of the Enron story from back in the late 1990's. It was the fastest growing company in the universe because its financial statements included estimates of the present value of all of the money it was going to make in the future based on, you guessed it: assumptions.

Didn't turn out so well for Enron. The electric car story is yet to be told.

 

[OneEyeJack]

The local electric utility here is struggling with the current load and asking people to do stuff like laundry at night when it's warm in the daytime.

It appears that all the government needs to do is worry about how much taxpayers can afford in rebates to rich people that can afford these cars and the electricity will come for pixie dust.

 

[goodtimes]

In mild climates it may work better. I can't see heating an interior with electricity in the winter using batteries is going to be something average people will want to deal with. Most people want to drive in a warm car and have clear windows and get to work without worrying about battery state of charge going too low.

 

[Kira]

FACTS WANTED: Apply within.

The following are not facts. Just my opinions and questions.
1) Use of the term "revolution" in a story like this is mere headlining. There are already electric cars on the road.
So, once again, things DON'T JUST HAPPEN. THINGS DEVELOP.

2) Facts are needed to access what percentage of trips can be done with a limited range car. Lots of trips are short ones. We all know this.

3) Your cross-country trips can be done with rented cars and trucks.

4) Maybe someday we'll get our head out of our dark places and implement cracker-jack public transportation.
That far-off dream can even include affordable local transportation to long distance operators.

5) I've heard it said that the communication machines we all carry will be a link to everything. Tracking city busses and summoning Uber cars comes to mind. Looks like things are happening.

6) Dismiss notions of somehow inserting modern technology into the 1950's world in order to improve it.
Things need to be re-prioritized.

7) I'd NEVER have a piece of furniture in my home which was delivered in a rented truck. Kira

 

[HerrStig]

Originally Posted By: DoubleWasp
It's a revolution!.....based on an assumption.......based on other assumptions...

Second half of the article actually goes out of the way to tell you why there's no point in reading the article in the first place.

+1

 

[HerrStig]

You can exhale anytime.

 

[supton]

Originally Posted By: OneEyeJack
The local electric utility here is struggling with the current load and asking people to do stuff like laundry at night when it's warm in the daytime.

It appears that all the government needs to do is worry about how much taxpayers can afford in rebates to rich people that can afford these cars and the electricity will come for pixie dust.


Well, most of these commuter cars could be charged during night hours; presumably during the day they would be stuck in parking lots that likely won't have charging cables. Plus if the algorithms in the cars are smart enough, it will "know" how many hours it needs to recharge, and then negotiate with the utility when to charge--no idea if anyone is looking into that, but it seems "smart" cars ought to be able to do that.

Originally Posted By: goodtimes
In mild climates it may work better. I can't see heating an interior with electricity in the winter using batteries is going to be something average people will want to deal with. Most people want to drive in a warm car and have clear windows and get to work without worrying about battery state of charge going too low.


Heh, how about this: what if we kept a fuel tank to run the heater? Could be fueled from home heating oil, diesel, etc. Conversion of energy into heat is very efficient, after all; but instead of using the batteries to make heat, why not use a small gas tank instead.

[Yes it would be odd, but I think it has promise. Unfortunately, that heater would have to meet EPA emissions requirements, and I haven't a clue what emissions on a burner might be. It should be clean as long as HHO isn't used--ULSD might have to be used instead.]

 

[Michael_P]

Quote:
My usual reply is where is the electricity going to come from?


A guy down the road from me owns a Tesla P90D. The license plates read: "COAL PWR" He is on the board of our local electric cooperative.

 

[old1]

Using fuel to heat the car isn't new, I had a couple Chevy Corvairs that had heaters that ran off the gas in the tank. Really put out the heat and fast too.

 

[supton]

Originally Posted By: old1
Using fuel to heat the car isn't new, I had a couple Chevy Corvairs that had heaters that ran off the gas in the tank. Really put out the heat and fast too.


Hmm, didn't think of that aspect. Really changes the whole "letting the car warm up" in winter aspect--one could then do exactly that with very little waste indeed!

And of course, if that tank runs dry, all it means is no heat for the remainder of the drive.