Oil price under $80/barrel until '20

[wemay]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/oil-price-forecast-to-stay-below-80-until-2020-iea-says-1.3312059

Oil price forecast to stay below $80 until 2020, IEA says
The Associated Press Posted: Nov 10, 2015 9:07 AM ET Last Updated: Nov 10, 2015 5:21 PM ET
Quote:
Oil prices are likely to remain low over the next five years because of plentiful supply and falling demand in developed countries, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday in its annual forecast.

The Paris-based body, which advises developed countries on energy policy, says it expects oil prices to return to $80 per barrel in 2020, with further increases after that.

Oil prices are down more than 50 per cent since the middle of last year. On Tuesday, the U.S. crude oil contract closed up 26 cents at $44.13 US a barrel.

 

[fdcg27]

I think that this overstates the 2020 price by at least twenty dollars a barrel and maybe more.
The fracking genie is out of the bottle.
There is too much oil in too many small deposits to exploit that make sense at $60.00/bbl.
Unless the Saudis are willing to shut production off for a time, which will happen when you see pigs flying past your windows, I can't see $80.00 oil in 2020.
Maybe 2120.

 

[Vern_in_IL]

Oil isn't running out. The US has massive reserves we have not tapped into. And we won't. So long as the Saudis do as they're told. Which they so far have.
By the way, Our economy is fine for a very long time with healthier currency and oil at around $40/barrel. This effort to predict higher oil prices is just stupid.

However, they are doing this on purpose.

Harming other energy sources is just a two-fer. The main target of this has been Russia. My advice to everyone: Invest in oil by the barrel and alternative energy companies. When oil shoots back up, you have the immediate cashout of those barrels, and the sustained income of alternate energy companies (who everyone will run to, asking for a reprieve from high oil prices).

 

[69GTX]

Oil longer term chart

I don't go by fundamentals or what "experts" say as the chart goes where the chart wants to go. When oil fell apart in Oct 2014 it never made an attempt to back test that 14 year uptrend line from 2001-2014. That's going to be tested in the next couple of years (ie $100/barrel). For now, oil seeks a major long term bottom in 2015-2016, maybe even into 2017. But it's going to come screaming out of that bottom at some point. Oil is putting in a 7-8 year cycle low soon. What goes down, comes back up.

Oil under $80/B through 2020? I doubt it.

 

[Doog]

I don't believe anything anyone says about the price of oil. Ever.

 

[Mr Nice]

Low oil prices are good for the USA.

 

[LoneRanger]

Originally Posted By: Mr Nice
Low oil prices are good for the USA.


And bad for Russia !!

 

[Food Scientist]

I don't ever trust what the "experts" have to say. Too many variables that determine what the price will be and all it takes for a price spike is someone that produces 0.1% of the world's oil to go offline.

I wonder how many of these "experts" actually invest money in the oil futures market since they know what is going to happen?

 

[CT8]

I will be holding my breath.

 

[HerrStig]

Originally Posted By: 69GTX
Oil longer term chart

I don't go by fundamentals or what "experts" say as the chart goes where the chart wants to go. When oil fell apart in Oct 2014 it never made an attempt to back test that 14 year uptrend line from 2001-2014. That's going to be tested in the next couple of years (ie $100/barrel). For now, oil seeks a major long term bottom in 2015-2016, maybe even into 2017. But it's going to come screaming out of that bottom at some point. Oil is putting in a 7-8 year cycle low soon. What goes down, comes back up.

Oil under $80/B through 2020? I doubt it.
LOts of new wells capped at 40 will be back on line at 50.

 

[Silverado12]

I will still try to conserve no matter how low prices go. I too don't think the "experts" know a whole lot more than I do.

 

[Koz1]

Saudis and others have said $100 oil will never happen again or even close.
Oil at about 40ish is what it should be at maybe even lower.
The price of every item we buy is influenced by oil price.
Oil should never be high ever.
The high price hinders all economics except the Rich and Criminals.

 

[CT8]

Originally Posted By: HerrStig
Originally Posted By: 69GTX
Oil longer term chart

I don't go by fundamentals or what "experts" say as the chart goes where the chart wants to go. When oil fell apart in Oct 2014 it never made an attempt to back test that 14 year uptrend line from 2001-2014. That's going to be tested in the next couple of years (ie $100/barrel). For now, oil seeks a major long term bottom in 2015-2016, maybe even into 2017. But it's going to come screaming out of that bottom at some point. Oil is putting in a 7-8 year cycle low soon. What goes down, comes back up.

Oil under $80/B through 2020? I doubt it.
LOts of new wells capped at 40 will be back on line at 50.
Hopefully the threat of uncapped wells will keep the price of oil down.

 

[HerrDiesel]

Curious to know or can someone explain to me the fluctuation in the price of diesel as it relates to the price of oil?

Example, October finished at $46 and diesel (at least where I was at) was hanging around $1.88-90.

Now, two months (DEC 23) later the POO is $37 but the diesel is still the same. The price of gas has dropped with the POO but not diesel.

Cheers,

 

[Cubey]

Originally Posted By: SVTCobra
I wonder how many of these "experts" actually invest money in the oil futures market since they know what is going to happen?


"Oil futures" are nothing but numbers on paper, meant to stablize prices for companies that actually use oil (such as airlines), but in recent decades (since 'Dubya) wall street investors put their hand in the cookie jar.

They buy up a ton of the "futures", not leaving enough for those who will actually need them. Then the price goes up on oil because there isn't enough projected oil to meet demand. Then the investors sell the oil they never really needed to those who DO, pulling in a massive profit for themselves, driving up the cost for everyday people.

The same thing happens with other commodities, including FOOD.

Now you know who to thank for temporary spikes in prices of things that should be stable.

 

[Garak]

Why should food prices be stable when the supply isn't necessarily stable?