Investors....come in please!

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Yeah it's not my style (anymore) to bottom feed - but sometimes when a stock just gets oversold, dumped massively, money can be made on the first bounce. Certainly doesn't look like NFI is the most healthy company....and I haven't examined the books. Will they curtail the dividend?
 
Well, bottom feeding is not bad in itself. When your hungry, you make do with edible garbage.
When your nice and fat you hold out for a nice rare ribeye.

NFI is in serious trouble right now and I expect a bear attack. The stock is still dropping. If it looks like it may bounce, I might jump in and grab a quick $1-2 bounce, but I don't want to get eaten by bears. Right now I see a bunch of vultures sitting on the fence, waiting for the finish. (Picture a board fence with a line of snoopy dogs in the classic vulture pose. )
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I'm doing good right now, half of my Portfolio is over 6%. When I cleanup a couple of losers, I'll look like an investment genius.
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Guys, I heard a so-called "analyst" this morning, talking about this being a secular bull market, and not to worry about a market correction.

Yeah, right.
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I see a lot of complacency out there, and that usually preceds a pullback, so be quick on the draw when things do turn around.....
 
Secular bull market? Versus what? A religious bull market? Sounds like a lot of bull to me. TLR, I'm with you on this market. I feel like I should be looking over my shoulder, watching for bears...
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I think maybe I should pull some cash out. It's been a heck of a month. Up over 1% today, 4.5% ytd. Been buying CSCO and HAL on dips. HAL up 1.24 today. FIREX up today. My stuff goes up in an up market, and up in a dawn market. Scary.
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It is true that we are in a secular bull market - but this does not insulate one from human mass hysteria. It's just better to be more diversified than ever, as we are finding out. I haven't been watching FIREX (even though I own it!!)

Other parts of real estate are starting to be yanked by the sub-prime "issues" - some companies for no reason. That's where I see buys.
 
I'm seeing stuff this year that I didn't see last year. Weird stuff. All out coordinated bear attacks by 2 or 3 big players against a stock wakened by a poor earnings report. RACK and AMD are the current loosers, but not the only ones. These big players have way too much power. They can literally destroy a company.
 
My BIL wrote me this on NFI (title = Broken Dreams):

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If you look you can find all sorts of news quickly on the internet. Here is one about the broken dreams of some people that includes retirees. I already been seeing some of this activity to the side of my specific interest areas and not ever taking any serious interest until this subject line appeared. I take time away from my narrow and selfish focus to learn about the mistakes of others and how it applies to my situation.

If you take time to understand how it affects others, it may let you see a little more into the trouble some people now find themselves in. For every dream that is realized there are probably many, many others that lie broken in forgotten and unseen places. That people take the time to see the value in sharing this part of life means there is something positive to be gained through the effort.


Msg: 38615 of 38705 2/23/2007 10:19:09 AM Recs: 7 Sentiment: Not Disclosed
By: grandpatb Send PM Profile Ignore Recommend Add To Favorites
DREAMS FALL ON NOVASTAR REIT WRECK (NY Post)

Msg: 3325 of 3327 2/23/2007 9:41:41 AM Recs: 1 Sentiment: Not Disclosed
By: brother_humv Send PM Profile Ignore Recommend Add To Favorites
Posted as a reply to msg 3324 by grandpatb

DREAMS FALL ON NOVASTAR REIT WRECK


NY Post

February 23, 2007 -- This week's stock-price meltdown of a small Midwestern real estate investment trust has proven devastating to the hundreds of shareholders who've frequently visited a little-known Internet message board.
Falling victim to the sharp deterioration in the subprime mortgage loan sector, NovaStar Financial unexpectedly announced a $14.4 million loss Tuesday afternoon.


At the same time, the company also warned investors that its rich dividend was in peril because of a grim outlook for the company's taxable income, which is required for a REIT to make dividend payments. NovaStar also said it might be forced to surrender its REIT status.

The string of bad news has almost halved the company's value since Monday - closing yesterday at $9.34 a share.

NovaStar's investors, many of whom rely on the REIT's dividends to fund their retirement planning, have been devastated.

In addition, NovaStar's enthusiastic shareholders were frequent visitors to an Internet message board called InvestorVillage.com, whose content was plastered with bullish views on the stock.

The leader of this group of burned investors is a veteran of the anti-naked short-selling movement, a man The Post identified in 2005 as Philip R. Saunders. The West Coast-based Saunders posted messages under the moniker "Easter Bunny."

In 2003, Saunders helped launch a Web site called www.nfi-info.net (NFI is NovaStar's ticker symbol) to help combat bearish sentiment on the company.

For more than three years, Saunders and a handful of other Internet posters were correct about Kansas City, Mo.-based NovaStar, which kept increasing dividends. But that winning streak petered out as NovaStar began to suffer from problem mortgages tied to borrowers with poor credit histories.

Saunders, though, continued to tout the stock, dismissing warnings posted on the message boards as short-seller propaganda.

"Figure this out, people," said a typical posting on Feb. 2. "They are creating a crisis in confidence when the company isn't allowed to say anything. The company is doing well. Business is good. [Mortgage] originations are growing."

On Feb. 13, another poster, "MarionPolk2000," suggested message board readers buy NovaStar stock using their credit cards.

For those who followed their advice, financial devastation followed.

A poster named "Bubbygator" wrote yesterday to say he had lost 40 percent of his net worth, or $335,000. Another poster, "Sealman," said he sold out his 21,000 share position yesterday, convinced that the "income stream" for retirement was gone.

Other posters told The Post that NovaStar's collapse would affect their ability to fund their IRAs.

While no one blamed Saunders, they did confess to being unaware of the declining subprime mortgage sector.

Mary Helburn, who owns 60,000 shares, told The Post that she was down nearly $500,000 in a week, but is optimistic on NovaStar's future. "I'm holding for the long haul," Helburn said. "I don't blame [Saunders] at all."

Saunders wrote on Investor Village that he has been "body-slammed by this." In an e-mail to The Post, Saunders stood by his criticism of NovaStar skeptics, but acknowledged, "I, and many other investors, lost a lot of money. Many of those are retirees that can't start over."





I'm saying if anyone had over 2-4% into NFI - they were foolish with their money.
 
My response:

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Richard,

I'm saying if anyone had over 2-4% of speculative money into NFI - they were foolish with their money. There are just so many other worthy REIT's and even better, REIT funds, - that simply don't invest directly in mortgages. If you want equities involved with secondary mortgages there is no real need to dip into sub-prime lenders to get great returns and solid companies. If you want to have more direct returns without owning an equity, just buy GNMA's or GNMA funds. (agreed - not the best rates right now)

I do feel for people who lost money - including people who worked for Novastar. The old saying is: If you don't understand what you are investing in, it is best to stay away. Methinks some of the retirees were "coached" into NFI by some "investment professionals" (aka sales people) and to me that is the real shame.

I totally avoid investment chat areas. Waste of time, IMHO. AND Never, ever, take investment advice from someone calling himself "The Easter Bunny"

Just my 2 cents.

Paul (just a working grunt so what do I know?)


 
Man-O-man! Some of those folks are reporting losses in one stock greater then my total net worth. Almost wish I had their problems.
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I'm with you, P. I've avoided reits this year. I'm sure there are some good ones out there, but I haven't looked yet. I'm following J.C.s advice, 1 hour of research for every stock I own and followup research as long as I own it. Even then I make mistakes, but overall, it's working for me. Even with yesterday, I's still up over 4% YTD.
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I thought you own FIREX? I own some other real estate stuff as well, it's down a tad just from human activity not directly related to NFI. That's why I said there may be some buys cropping up soon.
 
Yes, I do own FIREX, but I spent 2 weeks reading everything I could find before I bought it, even though I knew you owned it. I respect your knowledge in this sector, but even so, I did my own research.

Last year I did all sorts of high risk stuff, but this year I have to be much more disciplined.
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