Originally Posted By: Hokiefyd
Originally Posted By: Vuflanovsky
Unfortunately, it's not about picking them...it's about using them.
With respect, it
is about picking them. Health care hasn't been high forever. And it won't be high forever. At some point, you have to make decisions on what you think will be hot and what you think won't be. If picking the hot sector was that easy, then every professionally-managed portfolio would look the same. Health care is overperforming? Then everyone would be in health care. If there was a secret to beating the average, then that would simply be the new average.
Some investors are like vacationers just coming back from Vegas. You hear about the money they won. You don't hear that they actually came home with less than they left with.
To me, that's almost analogous to saying that Apple won't be hot forever so why invest in it. In actuality, I AM using it to a significant degree versus picking it because health care ( in case you're not aware ) has outperformed since 2011 and it becomes a situation where if I have to make a decision, do I want to ( for example ) up the percentage of health care-related issues in my portfolio from 12% to 17%?? I own a diversified health care mutual fund that has a 10 year annualized return of 19.1% and a 5 year annualized return of 29.6%. This fund has a lower correlation with the Dow and NASDAQ than the average mutual fund and will sometimes be up by 1% on days that the Dow is down 50 points or more. This same fund lost 28% in the 2008-2009 period versus 37% for the average mutual fund. While this fund has been exceptional ( along with some other healthcare funds ), I guess I'm an utter genius and should quit my day job versus just having the sector work for me in this manner described above ( as it has ) since 2010 when I bought the fund.
Granted, I don't think health care will be a high flyer forever but it currently has both head winds and tail winds that continue to mix as positive versus the market as a whole. Call me Nostradamus but I think the chances are 51% or greater that it will outperform for a fifth year. Over a 60 month period, I can hardly call that chasing the "hot" sector if you're using it in percentages to bolster your return.