Tesla...

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I think the jury might still be out on Tesla's ultimate direction...as in where they'll be in 15 years. When someone says "might have had a better chance" then I'd have to ask at what?? Tesla might be the dominant battery company in 15-20 years that supplies the now majority of cars that are electric...no longer making cars themselves. Elon Musk isn't known for being the most upfront guy and I think he's going to go in whatever direction that suits the times and where Tesla can profit. I would think it might be easier to control the battery market with a superior product that includes related technologies ( not just for powering cars ) versus trying to corner the market on autos sold in the U.S. competing against the Big Three and everyone else. Bill Gates had his "monopoly moment" when he signed on the dotted line with IBM. Who's to say that something similar won't happen here....
 
Originally Posted By: Vuflanovsky
I think the jury might still be out on Tesla's ultimate direction...as in where they'll be in 15 years. When someone says "might have had a better chance" then I'd have to ask at what?? Tesla might be the dominant battery company in 15-20 years that supplies the now majority of cars that are electric...no longer making cars themselves. Elon Musk isn't known for being the most upfront guy and I think he's going to go in whatever direction that suits the times and where Tesla can profit. I would think it might be easier to control the battery market with a superior product that includes related technologies ( not just for powering cars ) versus trying to corner the market on autos sold in the U.S. competing against the Big Three and everyone else. Bill Gates had his "monopoly moment" when he signed on the dotted line with IBM. Who's to say that something similar won't happen here....

There is nothing wrong with that, a young company may change direction when opportunities came.

Elon Musk may sell car business to highest bidder and concentrate on battery business or something else. Even if he promised in writing that he will never sell his company to anyone, he may be able to do that without violating any law for changing his mind.

Whatever happened in the future nobody knows, but as of now Tesla is a successful company as shown by their market cap.
 
No, I agree. My point was that some are ready to one dimensionally write off Tesla as only a manufacturer of electric cars when this could well be a stepping stone to a totally different business model when it really matters 10 plus years from now. Do I want to corner the market on battery technology and applications or do I want to struggle mightily to make a sub 30K electric car to their standard??
 
Originally Posted By: Vuflanovsky
No, I agree. My point was that some are ready to one dimensionally write off Tesla as only a manufacturer of electric cars when this could well be a stepping stone to a totally different business model when it really matters 10 plus years from now. Do I want to corner the market on battery technology and applications or do I want to struggle mightily to make a sub 30K electric car to their standard??


Better yet think 15 years, even better batteries, lots of electric cars, electronic embedded Northern California freeways controlling the cars.

One thing about my profession is that it is a lot like a priest who has a confessional. I have an exam room where Silicon Valley Execs and engineers tell me things that aren't public knowledge knowing full well all information is confidential.

That future actually depresses me since I like to drive my old gasoline cars their 1200 miles a year on the freeway. Plus the fact that I am not inclined to buy anything new for the next several decades.

As far as a Tesla is concerned they are a well built car in fit and finish. They remind me of a BART train when it pulls out of the Orinda Station and accelerates effortlessly from zero to 70 mph in a few seconds through the Caldecott Tunnel. One long, steady power surge that seems to have no limits.
 
Everyone seems to forget how Tesla actually makes money.

They make very little off cars. They make the majority selling tax credits to other mfgrs that they get from our Government...
 
Originally Posted By: SteveSRT8
Everyone seems to forget how Tesla actually makes money.

They make very little off cars. They make the majority selling tax credits to other mfgrs that they get from our Government...


Can I get a citation please?
 
Originally Posted By: Quattro Pete
Originally Posted By: Joshua_Skinner
Originally Posted By: SteveSRT8
Everyone seems to forget how Tesla actually makes money.

They make very little off cars. They make the majority selling tax credits to other mfgrs that they get from our Government...


Can I get a citation please?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/patrickmicha...ave-some-money/

They are still a business, and they operate in the regulatory frame work provided. Any of the major manufacturers could've done they same, but they didn't take the risk.
The core issue is that major manufacturers don't want to spend money/take risks to innovate for the public good(not their mandate), so the government creates incentives to help make innovation profitable and Tesla has done the best job at it. Does anyone think that internal combustion is going to make sense to power most cars 100 years from now? It might if there was no incentive to develop electric car tech.
 
Hey, I'm not arguing that what Tesla is doing is wrong or unethical in any way. I just provided a link that someone else asked for.
smile.gif
 
Originally Posted By: Quattro Pete
Originally Posted By: Joshua_Skinner
Originally Posted By: SteveSRT8
Everyone seems to forget how Tesla actually makes money.

They make very little off cars. They make the majority selling tax credits to other mfgrs that they get from our Government...


Can I get a citation please?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/patrickmicha...ave-some-money/


Anyone have another source? Maybe there is someone outside the Koch-funded Cato Institute who's done an analysis? Not that I doubt Tesla is making the most of the regulatory environment. I also don't doubt that GM has been doing the same. I wonder how much the tax payers have spent on Tesla? On GM? I believe the public's support of Tesla will prove to be money well spent.
 
Financially, Tesla is doing well.

A smart car company CEO(and his top financial advisers) would price his car(s) accordingly, after take into account all the revenues from direct sell to car buyers, and various credits from Federal and state rebates and selling emission credit(s) to other car companies.

Tesla is not the only car company benefits from various credits, any company selling zero emission vehicles(EV and Hydrogen vehicle ...) would get these credits. It just happens that Tesla is the only car company selling only EV, so they get more credits per car they sold than anyone else.
 
Aren't they still losing money? One article I recently read is that they are burning thru their cash very fast and could run out by 2016. Not so long ago they were near bankruptcy and it could happen again.
 
Originally Posted By: SteveSRT8
Last year Tesla made a roughly $150 million killing from selling ZEV credits. That’s up from $130 million in 2013, $32 million in 2012, and $3 million in 2011. All told in 2014 Tesla sold about $216 million in credits...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-tesla-paradox-1423786534

It's all over the net. Quit impugning the messenger when it's a hard fact in writing from several sources. Pick one you like...


On revenue of 5.6 billion 216 million is 3.86% of the total. That's hardly a majority of their earnings as you stated previously.

Questioning what I'm being told is hardly impugning the messenger. Question Authority. Do it early and often.

Questioning the findings of Cato Institute which is arguably in business to keep entrenched powers in power and does so at the expense of the citizens and the environment I do to arrive at the truth.
 
A small and expending company usually don't have positive cash flow for number of years. Tesla is spending $5 billions for mega-battery factory in Nevada, this is obviously effect cash flow.
 
Originally Posted By: Joshua_Skinner
Originally Posted By: Nate1979
Aren't they still losing money? One article I recently read is that they are burning thru their cash very fast and could run out by 2016. Not so long ago they were near bankruptcy and it could happen again.


Tesla are losing some money, yes. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=TSLA&annual

Burning cash quickly? Doesn't look that dire. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/06/tesla-motors-results-call-idUSL1N0XX3UA20150506


Tesla's cash burn is called eye watering by Morgan Stanley analyst:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...n-eye-watering-

They have zero room for mistakes.
 
Originally Posted By: Nate1979
Originally Posted By: Joshua_Skinner
Originally Posted By: Nate1979
Aren't they still losing money? One article I recently read is that they are burning thru their cash very fast and could run out by 2016. Not so long ago they were near bankruptcy and it could happen again.

Tesla are losing some money, yes. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=TSLA&annual

Burning cash quickly? Doesn't look that dire. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/06/tesla-motors-results-call-idUSL1N0XX3UA20150506

Tesla's cash burn is called eye watering by Morgan Stanley analyst:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...n-eye-watering-

They have zero room for mistakes.

The Gigafactory costs a lot of money, about $5 billions ? Also, development of Model X costs a lot of money too, but revenue of Model X will not start coming in until 4th quarter this year.

Tesla stock was $225.xx/sh on that article 2 months ago, it is $267.xx today up more than 18% in 2 months.

I don't think Tesla will have solid positive cash flow until late 2017 early 2018, after Model 3 is shipped to customers in high volume.
 
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