Investors....come in please!

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I have to agree with Amkeer; things aren't looking good. This latest bull market has been very long as bulls go, and it's showing signs of collapsing. The Fed is trying to rapidly raise rates (to be able to lower them when things cool), but they're behind the curve. There's not enough time left to get rates high enough.

Consumer optimism is declining, and that's what drives the economy. Fuel prices are 'stabilizing' at a high level. Technology stocks are tanking (re IBM; they do good at starts of bull markets and poorly at ends).

If we have a summer rally, I'm selling into it. Once the S&P and Dow go below their 40 wk moving averages, it'll be a bloodbath; and it could happen by this fall. Keep your powder dry, guys.
 
This collapse has somewhat caught me surprise. I knew that a pullback was inevitable, but this latest drop is beyond the targets I anticipated. We have a total collapse of technicals! I am sitting in some longs that comprise 18% of my capital which is a mistake. I should have not anticipated a continuation and closed out positions or at least opened shorts. MISTAKES!!!! Arghhhhhhhhh!
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Now I will unload my home and capture substantial gains in it. It will be tricky buying, but I have a solid plan that will allow me a nice equity position from the start, hopefully...
 
You guys are pessmistic!

I must admit my 401K got slammed a bit....but I'm just waiting for the 2004 matching before rolling it
into my IRA...so the matching buy will be when prices are a bit down
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And of course some of my individual stocks got killed - but thank God some were UP...but none of them are huge percentages of my portfolio.....I may hold cash for a bit longer and continue to do my IBD selective stock thing!
 
Like in 2003 the market in 2004 was driven by the same over-optimism and fears to lose the rally. I did not change my opinion because nothing had changed.

http://theoildrop.server101.com/ubb/ultimatebb.php?ubb=get_topic;f=8;t=001521;p=2

May be yesterday's drop is not yet investors' capitulation, but we're very close to it. If US $ remains weak or would weaken together with a renewal of a bear trend, foreign investors will start to close positions and it will accelerate further indices and $ drop. Think now it would be helpful to get an access to capital inflow-outflow statistics.

[ April 16, 2005, 08:47 AM: Message edited by: Primus ]
 
Wail and bail...

I'm seeing some good buy signals on selected stocks. Sorry but I stick with my thought that G-span over corrected.

Not trying to bottom fish - I just believe in US.
 
27% down overall....from a positive 15% back in December. Ain't that something!?!?

P, I would like to buy some more stuff to, but my wife is freaked out by the losses. I'm not!
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quote:

Originally posted by Primus:
May be yesterday's drop is not yet investors' capitulation, but we're very close to it. If US $ remains weak or would weaken together with a renewal of a bear trend, foreign investors will start to close positions and it will accelerate further indices and $ drop. Think now it would be helpful to get an access to capital inflow-outflow statistics.

So where to put one's money if the USA is doomed, as I believe it is for the next few years?

I like Canada, but then again, I have a pretty significant conflict of interest, eh?
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And when will this real estate bubble finally pop? A demographic look at the whole picture isn't one bit pretty.
 
There was a lot of buying in the May call options Friday, right at the close. This means a lot of professional traders are anticipating a May rally. Couple this with the fact that most short sellers hold for 30 days or less, and it looks like we might be looking at a (short term) up market soon.....

As I said before, if we get a 50% retracement of the recent drop, I'll be looking at selling some more positions. Could be a final low of about Dow 8800 in early 06, before it's all over.....
 
I agree with lone. We are in a bear market trend now so we will get waves up on the down trend. The start of a wave up I will open longs and close them at the start of a pullback. I will then steadily add short positions, unless something dramatic happens to change the pattern that is developing. We could easily reach the lows set way back. This effect of a pullback always hits the general populous late so we have tons more selling yet!
 
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Amsoil
Member # 512
I think LU is a bargain! Gobble up those shares!!!

I sold AGI today - kicked butt.
I sold USLM yesterday - kicked butt.

Sometimes you just gotta shop and not try to ride the whole market!

EDIT I made $1250 on LU today. You do the math.

[ April 19, 2005, 05:12 PM: Message edited by: Pablo ]
 
right now I'm torn. Im thinking that I need to get into either a basic materials (I think overall we are in a 'commodities era' where they will be stronger than stocks. However, I dont trade commodities, so it seems the smart thing to own companies that produce.

I was thinking of Canadian Natural Resource (CNQ, a oil/gas company), or Alcoa.

Alcoa Id just ride up to 33-34, which i think can be achieved even in this market, then unload, and shop again.

I was also thinking of Sara Lee. Might be a good deal right now, if they shake things up a bit, maybe spin off some companies and start righting themselves more and more, then they may have some good times ahead.

I was also considering Eaton Vance. Seems like a safe comany no matter what, with good management.

Chevron is always tempting to me, because oil will only be more and more important, and they make some good oil, which means they are a decent company
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I dont think I could go wrong getting into them.

I'm in LCAV and MRK since they were much lower. I bought MRK near bottom on panic, as a contrarian play - and have profited nicely. LCAV I bought right after announcing they were going to split. They are really conservative in opening new locations and do a lot of research before opening new spots. They do well, and the technology (Lasik vision correction), IMO will only get more and more popular. Im still holding them, and I think theyll keep returning nicely. The rest of my portfolio is rather ho-hum, but nice and secure.

But anyhow, Im sitting on a load of cash. Not necessarily a bad thing...

Any suggestions?

Thanks,

JMH
 
P and the rest of the gang,

I convinced my wife to let me transfer another $1000. I'm thinking LU and MOBL. Do you have any good picks?? Keep in mind it's only $1k, so it would have to be dirt cheap....under $3-4/share.
 
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