quote:
Originally posted by Primus:
Last_Z,
Nobody can give you a right answer and you may know it when it would be hardly possible to change something. Any investment remains a casino. Just remember how many people lost money in 2001-2002 bear market and ask yourself what will be less painful to you: if you lose money or if you regret not to earn a little bit more.
Unlike Amkeer I don't believe that you " ... are coming off one of the worst bear market in many years! Notice I said "coming off" which means a bottom is in place in this latest "dip you are cycle"."
Unforunately nothing yet clear and despite certain evidence of improving economy it is still around the corner. I am afraid America is going to the 2nd Great Depression. We cannot watch this without worry and forecast of possible consequences since our life here fully depends on the good health the US economy. If your locomotive stops now, we can bury our hopes to recover from communist marasm and post communist reforms for the next 10 years.
What was moving market in 2003 ? Think certain optimism. People was just tired of 2001-2002 bear market. Over this, given the system of performance evaluation of funds their managers are obliged to be bullish (often irrespective of real situation) because this evaluation defines their personal well-being and earnings. Looks like they are always afraid to miss a rally.
But this market growth does not reflect fundamentals and it cannot last a long time. In addition to new stock bubble you are creating real estate bubble. To cover trade and current account deficits you need around $ 1,5 billion/day of inflow from abroad, but with weakening dollar it is a very difficult target.
Think current growth is probably limited by 3-4 %. In the best case the stock market will see some correction. In the worse, it will be investors' fear and capitulation. Then actual Japaneese stock market would not yet seem the worth scenario.
Think about gold. And good luck !