There are enough variable for the average consumer, IDing those MPGs from viscosity alone is nearly impossible... but that does not mean it does not exist. The trick is the 2% which needs nearly lab capacity to find.
First, unless you have an accurate way of gauging ACTUAL fuel consumption, you can't really measure anything. Those MPG onboard calculators are often 5%+/- so 2% is lost in the inaccuracy of the computer. Heck, if you have a late 2000s Honda, those thing can be +/-30%. Eeeek. Those onboard MPG readouts are more about post-purchase customer marketing. If you bought a Chrysler V6 and are getting 27mpg on the dash, you go "good golly" this get good mpg and feel good about it and hopefully you will buy another. BUT, if you take fuel receipts and compare miles per fill-up... which happens to be 23-24mpg, then maybe not. Manufacturers were notorious (and still are) about making their onboard fuel calculators very optimistic.
Next, you will need to account for ambient temp, weight, fuel blends/density, wind direction, surface conditions, etc which all could be over a 2% difference.
The US consumed 137 billion gallons. If you saved 2% or 2.75 billion gallons, that is significant to the grand scheme although impacts on the consumer is minimal.
Yes, it is a "search for a frog-hair" type of engineering feat. I don't see 0w20 offering anything less than other oil as far as engine longevity. Will it hurt to run thicker? No. But if everything is a wash, those 2.75 billion gallons are best saved.