Originally Posted By: Nate1979
Originally Posted By: Vikas
Quote:
The CDC estimates that there could be 1.4 MILLION cases of Ebola in the next 4 months alone. That sounds a bit more impactful to me.
OK, you have my attention. Since you have posted it here without any attribution, may I ask the supporting link from CDC? Are you going to tell me that CDC wants it to be kept as a secret?
A simple google search gave first response as the source. Maybe you could try a search before making such negative response with accusational tone
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2...obile=nocontent
Here is a direct link to the CDC report, directly from their website, titled "Estimating the Future Number of Cases in the Ebola Epidemic — Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014–2015".
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su6303a1.htm?s_cid=su6303a1_w
Here is a copy and paste from that report with the relevant information:
_______________________________________
If trends continue without additional interventions, the model estimates that Liberia and Sierra Leone will have approximately 8,000 total Ebola cases (21,000 total cases when corrected for underreporting) by September 30, 2014 (Figure 1). Liberia will account for approximately 6,000 cases (16,000 corrected for underreporting) (Appendix [Figure 1]). Total cases in the two countries combined are doubling approximately every 20 days (Figure 1). Cases in Liberia are doubling every 15–20 days, and those in Sierra Leone are doubling every 30–40 days (Appendix [Figure 1]).
By September 30, 2014, without additional interventions and using the described likelihood of going to an ETU, approximately 670 daily beds in use (1,700 corrected for underreporting) will be needed in Liberia and Sierra Leone (Figure 2). Extrapolating trends to January 20, 2015, without additional interventions or changes in community behavior (e.g., notable reductions in unsafe burial practices), the model also estimates that Liberia and Sierra Leone will have approximately 550,000 Ebola cases (1.4 million when corrected for underreporting) (Appendix [Figure 2]). The uncorrected estimates of cases for Liberia on September 9, 2014, were 2,618, and the actual reported cases were 2,407 (i.e., model overestimated cases by +8.8%). The uncorrected estimates of cases for Sierra Leone on September 13, 2014, were 1,505 and the actual reported cases were 1,620 (i.e., model underestimated cases by -7.6%).
Originally Posted By: Vikas
Quote:
The CDC estimates that there could be 1.4 MILLION cases of Ebola in the next 4 months alone. That sounds a bit more impactful to me.
OK, you have my attention. Since you have posted it here without any attribution, may I ask the supporting link from CDC? Are you going to tell me that CDC wants it to be kept as a secret?
A simple google search gave first response as the source. Maybe you could try a search before making such negative response with accusational tone
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2...obile=nocontent
Here is a direct link to the CDC report, directly from their website, titled "Estimating the Future Number of Cases in the Ebola Epidemic — Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014–2015".
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su6303a1.htm?s_cid=su6303a1_w
Here is a copy and paste from that report with the relevant information:
_______________________________________
If trends continue without additional interventions, the model estimates that Liberia and Sierra Leone will have approximately 8,000 total Ebola cases (21,000 total cases when corrected for underreporting) by September 30, 2014 (Figure 1). Liberia will account for approximately 6,000 cases (16,000 corrected for underreporting) (Appendix [Figure 1]). Total cases in the two countries combined are doubling approximately every 20 days (Figure 1). Cases in Liberia are doubling every 15–20 days, and those in Sierra Leone are doubling every 30–40 days (Appendix [Figure 1]).
By September 30, 2014, without additional interventions and using the described likelihood of going to an ETU, approximately 670 daily beds in use (1,700 corrected for underreporting) will be needed in Liberia and Sierra Leone (Figure 2). Extrapolating trends to January 20, 2015, without additional interventions or changes in community behavior (e.g., notable reductions in unsafe burial practices), the model also estimates that Liberia and Sierra Leone will have approximately 550,000 Ebola cases (1.4 million when corrected for underreporting) (Appendix [Figure 2]). The uncorrected estimates of cases for Liberia on September 9, 2014, were 2,618, and the actual reported cases were 2,407 (i.e., model overestimated cases by +8.8%). The uncorrected estimates of cases for Sierra Leone on September 13, 2014, were 1,505 and the actual reported cases were 1,620 (i.e., model underestimated cases by -7.6%).
