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#3441379 - Today at 07:25 AM Industry is ahead of CAFE Curve?
supton Offline


Registered: 11/09/08
Posts: 4276
Loc: NH
EPA Says Industry Ahead of CAFE Curve

Originally Posted By: WardsAuto
CAFE requires each automakerís sales-weighted fleet, including light trucks, to achieve an average fuel economy of 35.5 mpg (6.6 L/100 km) by 2016 and 54.5 mpg (4.3 L/100 km) by 2025.

As of June, UMTRI reports a 25.5 mpg (9.2 L/100 km) average for all light vehicles sold in the U.S., up 5.4 mpg (2.1 km/L) since October 2007.

Olechiw says nearly 35% of í14 vehicles in the U.S. already meet the 35.5-mpg standard for í16.
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2004 VW Jetta Wagon, TDI, 5spd manual, 296kmile, his
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2010 Toyota Tundra double cab, 4.6L, auto, 87k

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#3441398 - Today at 07:58 AM Re: Industry is ahead of CAFE Curve? [Re: supton]
Miller88 Offline


Registered: 04/09/08
Posts: 6105
Loc: Onondaga County
I'm not sure if we'll ever get to the average of 50MPG, though.
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#3441422 - Today at 08:33 AM Re: Industry is ahead of CAFE Curve? [Re: Miller88]
IndyIan Offline


Registered: 09/23/08
Posts: 5374
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Originally Posted By: Miller88
I'm not sure if we'll ever get to the average of 50MPG, though.

The cars may not look quite the same or weigh 4000lbs+, but I don't think 50mpg is too much of a stretch technically.
What would a plug-in diesel Prius do today? 60-70-80 mpg? I don't know all the CAFE calcs for a plug in vehicle.
Eventually aerodynamics will finally trump styling for most cars, along with the demise of silly wide tires. Self driving and drafting and automated efficient traffic management could take care of another 5-20%
Personally I'd rather have super efficient appliance type vehicles, if it saves me significant money to do other things or get other fun toys.
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#3441523 - Today at 10:14 AM Re: Industry is ahead of CAFE Curve? [Re: supton]
TiredTrucker Offline


Registered: 01/04/08
Posts: 909
Loc: Kellogg, IA
With the interesting stuff in the wings, like the 3.2L EBDI engine GM has been working on, and the 2.8L E85 fueled inline 4 banger that Cummins has recently announced they have been testing, getting the vehicles up to CAFE standards might not be as bad as it seems. When I can get a semi truck, with 80,000 lb to average 8 mpg, with some owners even beating that mpg number, it is not unrealistic to think that if they applied some of the same concepts to the autos and pickups, that meeting the higher CAFE standards is very doable. They just have to pull their collective heads out of where they sit and get away from naturally aspirated engines. That is sooo old school.

The Cummins 2.8L E85 offering is really interesting. It reaches 450 lb of torque at 2800 RPM, much more and at a lower RPM than most small V8's. And it knocks the socks off of them in mpg as well. The GM 3.2L EBDI engine, also using E85, produces the same HP and Torque as the 6.6L Duramax Diesel and gets better mpg than it also. No telling what these folks also have in the R&D pipeline that might just do the trick nicely.
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#3441556 - Today at 10:42 AM Re: Industry is ahead of CAFE Curve? [Re: IndyIan]
Miller88 Offline


Registered: 04/09/08
Posts: 6105
Loc: Onondaga County
Originally Posted By: IndyIan
Originally Posted By: Miller88
I'm not sure if we'll ever get to the average of 50MPG, though.

The cars may not look quite the same or weigh 4000lbs+, but I don't think 50mpg is too much of a stretch technically.
What would a plug-in diesel Prius do today? 60-70-80 mpg? I don't know all the CAFE calcs for a plug in vehicle.
Eventually aerodynamics will finally trump styling for most cars, along with the demise of silly wide tires. Self driving and drafting and automated efficient traffic management could take care of another 5-20%
Personally I'd rather have super efficient appliance type vehicles, if it saves me significant money to do other things or get other fun toys.


The Mirage can easily get 50MPG and it's not a hybrid. It is an appliance for sure.
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#3441600 - Today at 11:35 AM Re: Industry is ahead of CAFE Curve? [Re: supton]
MCompact Offline


Registered: 07/21/02
Posts: 1552
Loc: KY
Remember that the CAFE numbers are a bit higher than the mpg numbers used today; they were adjusted down because the original numbers were virtually impossible to match in real world driving conditions.
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#3441612 - Today at 11:42 AM Re: Industry is ahead of CAFE Curve? [Re: supton]
hattaresguy Offline


Registered: 06/01/11
Posts: 4876
Loc: CT
Mercedes C class diesel hybrid that they won't sell in the states already meets 2025 standards.

http://ecomento.com/2013/12/16/mercedes-confirms-hybrid-plug-hybrid-versions-2015-c-class/

Lots of talk of them selling it but I doubt it until they are forced to.

Higher fuel prices are helping this as well, consumers want to save money and buying less fuel is a great way to do it. Fuel needs to stay at the slightly annoying price level to help this change along.

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#3441627 - Today at 11:55 AM Re: Industry is ahead of CAFE Curve? [Re: supton]
supton Offline


Registered: 11/09/08
Posts: 4276
Loc: NH
Did a quick look, and was reminded that E85 vehicles get a a 6.67x boost in mpg. If a vehicle gets 15mpg on E85 and 25mpg on E0, then it counts as 62.5mpg for CAFE. How that is I don't understand; and there are other limits (see wikipedia).
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2004 VW Jetta Wagon, TDI, 5spd manual, 296kmile, his
2011 Toyota Camry, base, 6spd manual, 74k, hers
2010 Toyota Tundra double cab, 4.6L, auto, 87k

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#3441642 - Today at 12:15 PM Re: Industry is ahead of CAFE Curve? [Re: supton]
Miller88 Offline


Registered: 04/09/08
Posts: 6105
Loc: Onondaga County
The same E85 that takes more than a gallon of fossil fuel to produce?
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#3442070 - 26 minutes 30 seconds ago Re: Industry is ahead of CAFE Curve? [Re: Miller88]
wag123 Online   content


Registered: 06/14/11
Posts: 498
Loc: Texas
IMHO, a 54.5 mpg corporate average is NOT possible, at least not with any vehicles that anyone will actually want to buy and drive for a price that the average worker can afford. Keep in mind that for every vehicle built and sold that "only" gets 44.5 mpg, they will have to build and sell one that gets 64.5 mpg. 1/2 ton pickups will cease to exist, if you need a truck it will be a 3/4 ton or nothing (they are not figured into the CAFE ratings), and you can bet your butt that they will be ungodly expensive. I know that the car industry earns "credits" for doing other desireable things (like building ULEV vehicles, electric vehicles, and vehicles that are E85 capable), even so, this mandate is not going to be technically feasible in only 10 years time unless the manufacturers can figure out a way to alter the laws of physics! The federal government will have to back off on the 54.5 mpg CAFE requirement or they will put the entire car industry out of business and we will all be walking.

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