Lead and Crime
- Thread starter Sam2000
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very interesting...
Last study said the reduction in crime was most likely due to the complete legalization of abortion. Same kind of graph and everything. Other studies show the same thing in areas where law abiding citizens are allowed to concealed carry. And the decline has also been attributed to longer incarceration times, the death penalty and stronger laws such as "three strikes you are out".
I tend to believe it's a combination including diet and lead reduction.
I tend to believe it's a combination including diet and lead reduction.
I've seen that article before, just a bit different as it concerned the same issue in the USA.
As others have stated, there are other events that have taken place to reduce crime.
Personally I think it is a good bet that they are on to something.
At the same time many other things have happened in society to help with crime rates.
As others have stated, there are other events that have taken place to reduce crime.
Personally I think it is a good bet that they are on to something.
At the same time many other things have happened in society to help with crime rates.
US had to use Cat Converters, and needed the lead out for that reason.
Here in Oz, getting the lead out was the mantra, with kids sucking on lead paint and IQ damage as the posters, and Cat Cons came with it.
I believe that the UK was similar
Here in Oz, getting the lead out was the mantra, with kids sucking on lead paint and IQ damage as the posters, and Cat Cons came with it.
I believe that the UK was similar
MolaKule
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Originally Posted By: Darren270
Correlation does not imply causation.
I don't see a true link.
Then there is also lead paint poisoning?
Correlation does not imply causation.
I don't see a true link.
Then there is also lead paint poisoning?
http://nber.org//digest/may08/w13097.html
In her state-by-state analysis, Reyes controls for other possible determinants of crime rates, including the unemployment rate and per capita income, the number of prisoners and police, gun laws, beer consumption, welfare generosity, the teen pregnancy rate, the population age distribution, and the effective abortion rate. The results suggest that a 10 percent increase in the grams of lead per gallon of gasoline leads to a 7.9 percent increase in violent crime. These results are subjected to a number of sensitivity tests, with particular attention paid to the importance of certain states, the possibility of a non-linear relationship, and the role of alternate lead measures.
In her state-by-state analysis, Reyes controls for other possible determinants of crime rates, including the unemployment rate and per capita income, the number of prisoners and police, gun laws, beer consumption, welfare generosity, the teen pregnancy rate, the population age distribution, and the effective abortion rate. The results suggest that a 10 percent increase in the grams of lead per gallon of gasoline leads to a 7.9 percent increase in violent crime. These results are subjected to a number of sensitivity tests, with particular attention paid to the importance of certain states, the possibility of a non-linear relationship, and the role of alternate lead measures.
Originally Posted By: Sam2000
It was interesting that the 20 year link was consistent across countries ie UK and US increased and decreased lead use at different times, crime rates went and down that time + 20 years.
My Govt doesn't indicate that the UK is down...nor Oz...we went unleaded in 1987 (and had our gun bans in 1996, just as home invasion became popoular).
http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current series/cfi/101-120/cfi115.html
It was interesting that the 20 year link was consistent across countries ie UK and US increased and decreased lead use at different times, crime rates went and down that time + 20 years.
My Govt doesn't indicate that the UK is down...nor Oz...we went unleaded in 1987 (and had our gun bans in 1996, just as home invasion became popoular).
http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current series/cfi/101-120/cfi115.html
What happened in 98 in England and Wales? Those numbers look very wrong. What exactly are they measuring? Intl cricket runs scored?
Anyhow, the statement in the article was that the relationship held across countries.
In my other post I quoted a description of the statistical methods used across different US States. Seems very thorough and not just correlation.
Anyhow, the statement in the article was that the relationship held across countries.
In my other post I quoted a description of the statistical methods used across different US States. Seems very thorough and not just correlation.
I was going to say where are we getting our supplementary lead from, but then see our crime statistics seem to follow the same pattern....but I doubt people as a whole would agree with that. I think it's just how they interpret those statistics....how they class violent crime.
We have no emission testing in NZ, and probably went to unleaded later than most countries...1996 I think it was.
We have no emission testing in NZ, and probably went to unleaded later than most countries...1996 I think it was.
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