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#3319784 - 03/22/14 01:05 PM Violent crime down, while gun sales are up
whip Offline


Registered: 03/03/05
Posts: 1533
Loc: ohio

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#3319796 - 03/22/14 01:27 PM Re: Violent crime down, while gun sales are up [Re: whip]
BMWTurboDzl Offline


Registered: 04/15/10
Posts: 1234
Loc: Atlanta,GA
Originally Posted By: whip


The economy is getting better. It's not gun sales.
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#3319813 - 03/22/14 01:49 PM Re: Violent crime down, while gun sales are up [Re: whip]
Brule Offline


Registered: 11/12/12
Posts: 422
Loc: St. Louis, Mo
Originally Posted By: whip
How can this be? I thought guns equaled violence?


You need to stop thinking logically and guide yourself by emotion. Then it will make sense once again.
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#3319814 - 03/22/14 01:49 PM Re: Violent crime down, while gun sales are up [Re: BMWTurboDzl]
d00df00d Offline


Registered: 10/20/05
Posts: 9156
Loc: PA
Originally Posted By: BMWTurboDzl
The economy is getting better. It's not gun sales.

This. The higher the socioeconomic floor is, the lower the crime rate will be.
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#3319821 - 03/22/14 01:56 PM Re: Violent crime down, while gun sales are up [Re: d00df00d]
John_K Offline


Registered: 12/08/06
Posts: 2276
Loc: Columbus, Ohio
Originally Posted By: d00df00d
Originally Posted By: BMWTurboDzl
The economy is getting better. It's not gun sales.

This. The higher the socioeconomic floor is, the lower the crime rate will be.


Guns don't kill people, economies kill people.
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#3319831 - 03/22/14 02:17 PM Re: Violent crime down, while gun sales are up [Re: whip]
fdcg27 Online   content


Registered: 09/25/09
Posts: 9262
Loc: OH
Originally Posted By: whip


The trendline for violent crime has been downward since the late 'eighties.
Some would credit the era of mass incarceration which began in the mid 'eighties.
If they're locked up, they aren't out there causing mayhem.
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#3319835 - 03/22/14 02:20 PM Re: Violent crime down, while gun sales are up [Re: d00df00d]
fdcg27 Online   content


Registered: 09/25/09
Posts: 9262
Loc: OH
Originally Posted By: d00df00d
Originally Posted By: BMWTurboDzl
The economy is getting better. It's not gun sales.

This. The higher the socioeconomic floor is, the lower the crime rate will be.


There are many academic studies of this.
The bottom line is that economic conditions are at best a weak predictor of crime rates.
Demographics have been shown to be the strongest predictor, with crime rate trends being strongly influenced by the proprotion of the population reaching the first felony age of 18-20 years.
A weak economy will have some marginal impact, though.
Just not a very significant one.
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#3319851 - 03/22/14 02:41 PM Re: Violent crime down, while gun sales are up [Re: Brule]
285south Offline


Registered: 01/18/13
Posts: 363
Loc: usa
Originally Posted By: Brule
Originally Posted By: whip
How can this be? I thought guns equaled violence?


You need to stop thinking logically and guide yourself by emotion. Then it will make sense once again.


Correction: You need to stop getting your news and thoughts from the main stream media and guns don't equal violence.

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#3319859 - 03/22/14 02:50 PM Re: Violent crime down, while gun sales are up [Re: whip]
dnewton3 Offline



Registered: 05/14/07
Posts: 5590
Loc: Indianapolis, IN
All - dangerously close to political. Beware your thoughts as they flow past your keyboard ...

Nothing wrong with facts; I love 'em. But once you start to assign political thesis to them, you're in trouble here at BITOG.

Fact: Violent crime has been going down for nearly 30 years now.
Fact: It was on the way down before the assault weapon ban, continued its drop during the ban, and to this day trends downward after the end of the ban several years ago.
Fact: Firearms sales continues to rise, as does personal ownership and carry permits.
Fact: The economy has seen multiple cycles up and down during the same timeline.

You may all draw your own conclusions, but don't post RSP here.
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#3319860 - 03/22/14 02:51 PM Re: Violent crime down, while gun sales are up [Re: 285south]
Rand Offline


Registered: 08/20/03
Posts: 7487
Loc: Akron,Ohio
by a vast majority the people that can afford to buy guns .. aren't the ones using them in crimes
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#3319874 - 03/22/14 03:10 PM Re: Violent crime down, while gun sales are up [Re: whip]
jaj Offline


Registered: 08/21/03
Posts: 893
Loc: Vancouver, Canada
A number of states have decriminalized the act of shooting someone in self-defense. When you decriminalize anything, the crime rate automatically goes down even if the number of times it happens goes up.

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#3319887 - 03/22/14 03:20 PM Re: Violent crime down, while gun sales are up [Re: jaj]
lomez Offline


Registered: 04/14/11
Posts: 103
Loc: California
Originally Posted By: jaj
A number of states have decriminalized the act of shooting someone in self-defense. When you decriminalize anything, the crime rate automatically goes down even if the number of times it happens goes up.


It is legal in ALL states (not some) to shoot someone in self defense, if you have a reasonable fear of great bodily injury or death. This is the law today, and every day since 1789.
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#3319900 - 03/22/14 03:36 PM Re: Violent crime down, while gun sales are up [Re: Rand]
JHZR2 Offline



Registered: 12/14/02
Posts: 33626
Loc: New Jersey
Originally Posted By: Rand
by a vast majority the people that can afford to buy guns .. aren't the ones using them in crimes


So you're saying those who use them in crimes are buying them on credit?

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#3319908 - 03/22/14 03:56 PM Re: Violent crime down, while gun sales are up [Re: whip]
Robenstein Offline


Registered: 12/23/09
Posts: 3158
Loc: Central IA
Usually the guns are stolen or illegally purchased on the black market is what he is saying. Very few actually stroll into a gun store and buy them as they would have to pass the background check.
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#3320542 - 03/23/14 06:14 AM Re: Violent crime down, while gun sales are up [Re: whip]
dnewton3 Offline



Registered: 05/14/07
Posts: 5590
Loc: Indianapolis, IN
First of all, for those outside the USA, this may not apply to you, or interest you. My apologies; we have a worldwide site but we're predominantly "American", so forgive our self-centered conversation here. But, I like facts, I like guns, and I'll participate as long as we follow the site rules.

Second, you will note that I'm not quoting silly politically-charged website sources here; I'm using credible sources like the AMA, FBI, BLS, CDC, etc. I am not trying to taint or otherwise skew data. I am using well-established, trustworthy sources for my facts. I am leaving my opinions (of which I have many strong ones) out of this, and so should you all. I have no objection if you bring FACTS to this conversation, but that is where it should end. Don't speak of things you cannot prove, because it's likely your "feelings" seeping through, and you'll be about an inch away from going "political", which is a no-no.

Third, this data is about three years old now, but it does not range-shift greatly year-over-year, so it's relevant. Data taken in such large quantities often takes a couple of years to compile and tabulate so it's typical and normal to see data that is two+ years old being cited. You'll never see credible data that is so "fresh" that it's current year or last year info; it simply takes longer than that to collect and run the numbers.

Fourth, this takes a while to follow all the data. If you want to KNOW (rather than guess or feel your way through this topic) the reality of the subject matter, then you need to set aside the time to research the following stuff I'm about to present. I beg of you, don't take my word for it; prove it to yourself!


We need to be careful here and stick to facts and use proper descriptions and terminology.


Let's start here:
http://www.fbi.gov/stats-services/crimestats/

It's also important to understand how the FBI defines "violent crime" for what it is, and isn't ...
In the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program, violent crime is composed of four offenses: murder and non-negligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. Violent crimes are defined in the UCR Program as those offenses which involve force or threat of force.
taken from here:
http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/cri...e/violent-crime
Please note that not all violent crime uses firearms, and in fact, the definition is not predicated on the use of any weapon. While predominant, weapons of any sort are not a requirement for quantification of the event in the "violent crime" definition. For example, forcible rape may not have any weapon present at all; it may be achieved by physical brute force. Same goes for "aggravated assault"; physical beatings do not necessitate a weapon, or could be a non-firearm weapon such as a baseball bat. Roberies can also be committed with a knife as well as a gun. Etc, etc. ... The thing to understand here is that not all violent crimes encompass a firearm. Firearms are inclusive in the group, but they are not exclusive to other methods of inflicting "violent crime".

In addition, few folks know about the BJS, which actually has even "better" data:
http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=tp&tid=31
There is GREAT data here:
http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=4616


Did you know that slightly less than 60% (it varies a bit year to year) of ALL gun-related deaths are suicides? Yes - well more than half of ALL deaths caused by firearms are self-inflicted. And of those, the majority are Caucasian elderly men. Suicide is sad to be sure; any loss of life is undesirable. But it kind of puts things in perspective, does it not? If the firearm were not available to the person, they likely would have found another cause to inflict fatal harm.

There are always some notable gun-related crimes that make newsworthy events; typically the school shootings, etc. Often those are committed with guns that were procured legally at least in the first-person cycle. You'd never know it by news promotional standards, but violent crime committed with "assault weapons" is a VERY SMALL fraction of "violent crime". Super-duper small, in fact.

And what of accidental gun-related deaths? This is one of my favorite topics because it is simply S-H-O-C-K-I-N-G when folks see the math for the reality of what it is. Hold on to your seats, because I'm going to take you on a wild ride here ...
You are way more likely to die from interaction with the medical profession than you are to be shot to death from an accidental discharge of a weapon. Think I'm wrong? Then you don't know me well, because data rules in my world; facts are what I live my reality by. Consider these facts:
Doctors:
(A) Number of physicians in the US are around 700,000.
(B) Accidental deaths caused by physicians per year are 120,000. (This number could be larger according to the AMA article, but I used the conservative number.)
(C) Accidental deaths per physician rate is about 0.171
Statistics courtesy of several sources:
http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos074.htm#emply
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/lcod.htm
JAMA vol 284, #4; B. Starfield – MD/MPH

Gun Owners:
(A) Number of gun owners are around 80,000,000. (Yes, that's 80 million)
(B) The number of accidental gun deaths per year, for all age groups, is 1,500 events. The number of homicides via firearms per year is about 12,000. Suicides account for nearly 57% of all gun deaths, per the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics.
(C) Accidental deaths per gun owner are .0000187
(D) Intentional deaths per gun handler are .00015
Statistics courtesy of multiple sources:
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/00046149.htm
http://www.tincher.to/deaths.htm
http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonline/
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/05cius/offenses/violent_crime/murder_homicide.html

Now let's do the math:
Iatrogenic death divided by accidental gun death = exposure risk factor
.171 / .0000178 = 9144

And so, statistically, the medical profession is approximately 9,000+ times more dangerous than gun owners when you look at accidental deaths. Even if you consider homicide by guns, you are MUCH, MUCH more likely to be killed by a health-care provider than a gun. Homicide (as well as violent crime) has been going down for 20+ years, and does not even make the top 15 causes of death annually in the US! Yet, the third leading cause of death in the U.S. is iatrogenesis! (Iatrogenic causation is that which is induced in a patient by a physician’s action, treatment or therapy.)

- If you fear the thought of going into a theater or restaurant where someone may be carrying a handgun, then you need a serious reality check, because you're so very much more likely to be killed accidentally by the guys and gals with the stethoscope hanging around their neck than the person with the Colt on their hip or Glock in their purse.
- If you fear that more guns and gun permits means more crime will occur, then you need a serious reality check, because violent crime has been on a downward trend for decades while personal protective rights being exercised have been on the continual rise.
- If you fear that access to guns means more kids will die, then you should really concern yourself with the white, older, man who seeks to end his own life.
- If you fear being a victim of a gun crime and live in an area with very strict gun laws, you should move because you are also statistically in an area with higher crime rates. The states/cities with the tightest gun laws also tend to have higher incidents of gun-related crimes (CA, IL, NY, NJ, MD ...).


Use these links to find TRUTH about the topics, and leave the lies and distortion to the media, folks. The best weapon may well be an informed mind!

Thus endeth the lesson in reality.
I now return you to your regularly scheduled rhetoric.



Edited by dnewton3 (03/26/14 04:56 PM)
_________________________
Conventionals vs. Synthetics isn't about which is "better"; it's about which lasts longer, while assuring safe operation, in relation to cost. Any product can be over or under utilized. The same applies to filters.
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