The permanent decline of cars 10 years off?

[ls1mike]

Decline of cars.

Interesting short article. I think there is some truth to it. I live in a pretty rural place, but don't have to drive far to work. Not sure public transportation will be up to task everywhere in 10 years.

Discuss.

 

[wallyuwl]

Reminds me of all the talk of peak oil, going back decades. Well, we're getting more oil out of the ground now than ever. I don't see 120 million units in 2016, but I don't see a significant, meaningful decline from "peak auto sales" any time soon.

 

[John_K]

I am totally shocked at how many young people...age 18, 20, even older...don't have a driver license? And here in Columbus, particularly in the suburban area I live in, bus service is fair to middlin' at best. They just don't care that much about cars. When I was 15 we were all drooling over the prospect of getting a driver license. Things are changing.

John

 

[Kira]

Hello, As the cost per mile goes up you're going to see a decline in "distraction driving" at the very least.
Those increases in cost will generate consolidated trips.
Increasing online, catalog, telephone or pre-scheduled orders for goods results in fewer trips.
Improving telecommunications will foster all transportation methods and improve efficiency; resulting in fewer trips.
Increased short term rental (Zip-Car, etc.) popularity will result in increasing drive time efficiencies; resulting in fewer trips.
Plans for expansion of communities increasingly include expanded public transportation.
DWI's seem to be increasing; resulting in increased utilization of public transportation. Kira

 

[simple_gifts]

Quote:

Well, we're getting more oil out of the ground now than ever.


More expensively than ever too.

Young people positioning themselves without their mobility being based on car ownership is a wise move IMHO. Maybe a "rent as you need" business model like are already being run in big cities is the way to go.

 

[TrevorS]

Originally Posted By: John_K
I am totally shocked at how many young people...age 18, 20, even older...don't have a driver license? And here in Columbus, particularly in the suburban area I live in, bus service is fair to middlin' at best. They just don't care that much about cars. When I was 15 we were all drooling over the prospect of getting a driver license. Things are changing.

John


#1 reason is that you can't have you face down looking at your mobile while driving.

Car manufacturers are going to have to come up with better speech recognition and app integration eg reading out content to appeal to the up and coming generation.

 

[Spazdog]

It's a generational thing.

For the Baby Boomers and Gen X, a cars and motorcycles were symbolic of independence. A driver's license was a gateway. Your first car. Your first apartment. Your first home. All symbolic and definitive of who you were.

Gen Y was more of a "Stay at home" generation. The average Gen Y-er doesn't leave home until 25 years old.

Gen Z (or Gen Wii....whatever the current generation is) doesn't know a world with no ability to instantly communicate with others. Doesn't know what it is like to not have all the information they need instantly. Doesn't know not having anything at all to watch on TV because there is only 5 or less channels (ABC, CBS, NBC, PBS and one UHF independent when I was growing up) and half of those already signed off with the national anthem followed by a test pattern. A car is not as important to them as instant access to information and entertainment.

There will still be car enthusiasts in the current generation. But I do not think that a regular beater of a car will have the same Social cachet as the latest portable electronic device will.

 

[CourierDriver]

Originally Posted By: TrevorS
Originally Posted By: John_K
I am totally shocked at how many young people...age 18, 20, even older...don't have a driver license? And here in Columbus, particularly in the suburban area I live in, bus service is fair to middlin' at best. They just don't care that much about cars. When I was 15 we were all drooling over the prospect of getting a driver license. Things are changing.

John
plus one

#1 reason is that you can't have you face down looking at your mobile while driving.

Car manufacturers are going to have to come up with better speech recognition and app integration eg reading out content to appeal to the up and coming generation.

 

[The_Eric]

Another point: As cities develop their mass transport, cars will become less important. Really, why spend 15-20K on a commuter car when the bus or train will get you there for much less? How long could you ride a train before it cost as much as the purchase of a car, it's yearly registration, repairs, fuel, parking and insurance?

Also, many cities are developing infrastructure for bicycles and the number of cyclists are on the rise.

If I lived in Ames (next time over from me), a college town, I would have very little need for an auto. I'd simply ride my bicycle or the bus.



edit: Realistically, I don't think we can have it both ways. Cities growing alternative transportation and people maintaining or growing auto sales.

 

[slowdime]

Originally Posted By: Spazdog
It's a generational thing.

For the Baby Boomers and Gen X, a cars and motorcycles were symbolic of independence. A driver's license was a gateway. Your first car. Your first apartment. Your first home. All symbolic and definitive of who you were.

Gen Y was more of a "Stay at home" generation. The average Gen Y-er doesn't leave home until 25 years old.

Gen Z (or Gen Wii....whatever the current generation is) doesn't know a world with no ability to instantly communicate with others. Doesn't know what it is like to not have all the information they need instantly. Doesn't know not having anything at all to watch on TV because there is only 5 or less channels (ABC, CBS, NBC, PBS and one UHF independent when I was growing up) and half of those already signed off with the national anthem followed by a test pattern. A car is not as important to them as instant access to information and entertainment.

There will still be car enthusiasts in the current generation. But I do not think that a regular beater of a car will have the same Social cachet as the latest portable electronic device will.


It's true. I'm 25 and most of the people my age I know either don't have cars, or if they do they don't know the first thing about them. Just recently at the grocery store I saw guy my age trying to give an old lady a jump start, the guy couldn't even figure out how to pop his hood. Transportation and the ability to move around as I please is something I value highly. I started learning to fly airplanes when I was 13 and on my 16th birthday I got my drivers license and made my first solo flight within a couple hours of each other.
The growth of the internet has basically eliminated the need for people to leave the house. Everything you could possibly think of can be bought online and shipped to your door, even groceries. I know people who work from home and take college classes online.
I feel like the internet can be a very valuable tool but at the same time it can also serve as a wall between people and real life experience.

 

[expat]

Yep, as said, many are just not interested in having a car, and I can see why.
Driving is not as much Fun as it once was, Cars are Boring*, Cars are expensive and cost a lot to maintain (weekend tinkering is a thing of the past)
Cars need to be parked somewhere.
Less NEED to drive, people work from home, get goods delivered, people don't go out so much in the evening (can't drink and Drive)

Even I often take transportation and Rent a car when I get to where I'm going.

*Not all cars are Boring, but 90% of the time even a performance car (even more $) has to be driven in a Boring environment.

 

[slowdime]

Originally Posted By: The_Eric
Another point: As cities develop their mass transport, cars will become less important. Really, why spend 15-20K on a commuter car when the bus or train will get you there for much less? How long could you ride a train before it cost as much as the purchase of a car, it's yearly registration, repairs, fuel, parking and insurance?

Also, many cities are developing infrastructure for bicycles and the number of cyclists are on the rise.

If I lived in Ames (next time over from me), a college town, I would have very little need for an auto. I'd simply ride my bicycle or the bus.



edit: Realistically, I don't think we can have it both ways. Cities growing alternative transportation and people maintaining or growing auto sales.


I live in portland oregon, a city that prides itself on effective mass transit. Sure it works but only if you live in certain parts of the metro area, ideally right next to a rail line or in the downtown core. Downtown and some of the close in neighborhood are extremely expensive. It seems that anywhere that sees a new streetcar line or rail line becomes gentrified. People who have the means to afford cars but don't have them move in and the former residents of the area(often poor and carless) are forced to move further out to areas with unreliable and underfunded bus service and very few or no sidewalks. Another issue here is the poor road maintenance. Potholes are everywhere and repairs that are made are shoddy at best and only last for a year or so. Interstate 5 through portland isn't very well cared for by ODOT; crossing the Columbia river into Washington on I5 shows a pretty stark contrast in highway maintenance funding

 

[earlyre]

Originally Posted By: John_K
I am totally shocked at how many young people...age 18, 20, even older...don't have a driver license? And here in Columbus, particularly in the suburban area I live in, bus service is fair to middlin' at best. They just don't care that much about cars. When I was 15 we were all drooling over the prospect of getting a driver license. Things are changing.

John

Cota Service is Spotty at best.
I used to Work @ the meijer store on Sawmill Rd (1/2 the property is in Dublin,1/2 in Columbus) The nearest bus stop was 2 miles away down on Bethel.
while there i lived up between worthington, westerville, and the area around poliaris. (roughly 1/4mi due north of the Bud brewery)
City of Columbus(city trucks picked up our trash,I forget what color day we were), worthington schools, and zipcode, no busses. save for the yellow kind taking the kiddos to/from school.

My nephew is so far(he's 12) the exception to the kids not caring about cars,rule. he's a bit car crazy already, but, he's growing up on a farm just outside their little village, which is about 30mi from a city that might have something to do. and they also don't have cable or satellite tv. their antenna pulls the big 4 networks from here, and the PBS station from up in BG.
they have a whopping total of 7 channels. and their internet isn't fast enough for netflix streaming.

 

[SumpChump]

I agree about the decline of gear heads. There are some 'tuners' out there but seems most kids are not into cars anymore. Sure there are some specialty segments and even seems to be more going to Wyotech type places but on average the American teen is more into snapchat and the twenty something's are into working out. Blanket statement but based on my lucid observations of a pretty darn good crossection on America.

 

[Brybo86]

I live on the north side of Chicago, in the city, close to public transportation. I work smack downtown.
If I take the cta public transportation I have to leave my house at 540am to get to work by 7am.
if I drive a car or motorcycle I can leave my house at 630am and still get to work by 7am.
that is fifty extra minutes x2 for a total of 1hr, 40min extra commute to take the train, train is $2.25 each way.
motorcycle parking is free, car costs me $9.
I like to think my time is worth more than a few dollars. especially working 12hr shifts back to back

there are 2 kinds of people who glorify public transportation
1. those who don't have to take it
2. and those who have no other option.

 

[earlyre]

Originally Posted By: expat
Yep, as said, many are just not interested in having a car, and I can see why.
Driving is not as much Fun as it once was, Cars are Boring*, Cars are expensive and cost a lot to maintain (weekend tinkering is a thing of the past)
Cars need to be parked somewhere.
Less NEED to drive, people work from home, get goods delivered, people don't go out so much in the evening (can't drink and Drive)

Even I often take transportation and Rent a car when I get to where I'm going.

*Not all cars are Boring, but 90% of the time even a performance car (even more $) has to be driven in a Boring environment.


They may be more boring, but they are also so much better than they were 30 years ago.
weekend tinkering is a thing of the past largely becasue they don't NEED to be tinkered with. they mostly will last to 150-200,000 mi, with just the most basic of maintenance. as long as you change the oil every once in a while, chances are the engine will outlast the body, which just wasn't the case back in the 70's &80s. back in the day, a car with 100,000 mi was done. now you can get that far before any major scheduled maintenance.

that's not even mentioning how today's basic family cars will out drive even a sports car from back then.
even vanilla appliance vehicles are available with more powerful 4 &6cyl, than the v8's they replaced.

the Sable i just bought,which i think we can all agree is a granny car,is a granny Car with a 262 HP V6, that delivers nearly 30MPG on the hwy.

 

[andrewg]

Cars, powered by whatever, will be around a VERY long time to come. While our cities are somewhat crowded, public transit systems are at least a generation away from linking our cities with adequate rural and suburban transportation. I don't see a time in the near future where Americans will be content with public transit.

 

[ls1mike]

It blew my mind seeing young folks entering the Navy who never had a drivers license.

Where I live it would be very hard to use mass transit to get to and from work. Ride Share and Car pooling would be pretty easy.

 

[turtlevette]

I think a couple of things are going on.

1. "Kids" are living with their parents longer. I mean like into their 30s. You can't really call that a kid anymore hence the quotes.

2. They're simply using the family hand me down car registered in their parents name, instead of buying a new vehicle.

Result, Fewer houses being sold. Fewer cars being sold. More video games, TV's and phones being sold.

 

[TrevorS]

Originally Posted By: earlyre
Originally Posted By: expat
Yep, as said, many are just not interested in having a car, and I can see why.
Driving is not as much Fun as it once was, Cars are Boring*, Cars are expensive and cost a lot to maintain (weekend tinkering is a thing of the past)
Cars need to be parked somewhere.
Less NEED to drive, people work from home, get goods delivered, people don't go out so much in the evening (can't drink and Drive)

Even I often take transportation and Rent a car when I get to where I'm going.

*Not all cars are Boring, but 90% of the time even a performance car (even more $) has to be driven in a Boring environment.


They may be more boring, but they are also so much better than they were 30 years ago.
weekend tinkering is a thing of the past largely becasue they don't NEED to be tinkered with. they mostly will last to 150-200,000 mi, with just the most basic of maintenance. as long as you change the oil every once in a while, chances are the engine will outlast the body, which just wasn't the case back in the 70's &80s. back in the day, a car with 100,000 mi was done. now you can get that far before any major scheduled maintenance.

that's not even mentioning how today's basic family cars will out drive even a sports car from back then.
even vanilla appliance vehicles are available with more powerful 4 &6cyl, than the v8's they replaced.

the Sable i just bought,which i think we can all agree is a granny car,is a granny Car with a 262 HP V6, that delivers nearly 30MPG on the hwy.


I agree. Cars are cheaper and more reliable than ever. But fuel is getting expensive as is insurance. Fuel price in particular has an effect on people's cost perception due to the immediacy and cashflow implications.

I can imagine a young person these days sees a tank costing $50+ and thinking: "That's the same as one month for unlimited text and data. And in two months I could have the latest ipad. I'll just get mom to drive me around and I can text my friends on the way."