A restriction gauge is the ONLY way to tell that a filter needs to be changed, unless there is obvious damage. Even a nice dust cake on the exterior is not necessarily an indication of the need to change.
Indeed, air filter efficiency improves as it loads up. In fact, according to an engineer at Parker Filtration, 90 percent of the dirt that passes thru the average air filter in its operational life comes in the first 10 percent of use. A typical air filter will improve 2-3 percent in efficiency in its operation life. If you wonder how much dirt that is, look here:
Code:
For Every 10 Pounds of Dust Drawn Into the Air Filter Inlet:
EFFICIENCY OF FILTER DUST INTO ENGINE
99.95% 0.005 lbs.
99% 0.10 lbs.
95% 0.50 lbs.
90% 1.0 lbs.
So imagine you filter starts out at 95%, as many do, and if it goes to 99% by the time it hits about 15K miles of use and you run it to 60K, you have significantly reduced the amount of dirt going into the engine versus replacing the filter arbitrarily at 30K. If you keep changing the filter early, you are constantly running in the low efficiency area and drawing more dirt into the engine. A significant amount of that goes into the oil. The air intake is THE major source of lubricant contamination for the IC engine and taking pains in this area may be one of the most important elements to engine life.
Filter engineers generally cringe when you talk about cleaning non-cleanable air filters. Overall, car and LD truck filters are pretty fragile and you can cause damage and create large pores that are not visible to the eye. Some of the aftermarkets have done testing over the years that indicate a significant loss of efficiency from an improperly cleaned fiIter. I think the risk of causing damage outweighs any gain in filter life because you really have no way to know if you did or didn't cause damage. This is especially true when you consider that with a restriction gauge, many people are finding they can easily go 2-3 times the normal FCI.
The OEM FCIs are based on averages. They have to account for people who live in the dusty desert and cities as much as those who life in very clean air environments. It doesn't hurt the bottom line that a shorter interval helps them, and the aftermarkets, to sell more air filters as well.
Install a restriction gauge and replace the filter when indicated by the gauge. Otherwise, open the air filter box as little as possible to maintain the sealing media.
Oh and that's another issue... too frequently opening the air box. An air filter whose seal integrity has failed is not an air filter. Repeatedly molesting the air filter can compromise those seals. This is especially true with panel filters that use the closed cell foam as seals. No matter what, any time you install a filter, take extra effort to make sure the filter seals well in the box. Air filter grease (K&N has one) is often a good thing to help a filter seal and to help the seal slide into place correctly. The grease facilitates a (more) safe removal too.