Investors....come in please!
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Did you guys see the article on MLP's in Barrons?
Originally Posted By: tpitcher
Originally Posted By: Pablo
Did you guys see the article on MLP's in Barrons?
Nope. What's up?
They seem to be all plus on them, as in the past. Just some good info for the newer folks.
Originally Posted By: Pablo
Did you guys see the article on MLP's in Barrons?
Nope. What's up?
They seem to be all plus on them, as in the past. Just some good info for the newer folks.
OK, this stock market officially sucks now. The whipsaws over the last 2 months made for very predictable trades. Now it's stuck at the highs for the year.
Check out this chart. Pretty amazing. Looks like we're stuck in a pattern similar to the 60s through the 80s, but more towards the end of it potentially. Still means another potential big drop before resuming a longer term cyclical bull market. It also bellies the fact that over the very long term, stocks do make returns, but you have to be prudent in managing the intermediate term bear markets.
http://blogs.stockcharts.com/.a/6a0105370026df970c0176174ece70970c-pi
That elder impulse system is awesome for long term investing. Just sticking your money in an SP500 index fund and using the elder impulse system on a quarterly or monthly chart will probably beat 95% of all managed accounts, hedge funds, mutual funds etc. over the long run.
Check out this chart. Pretty amazing. Looks like we're stuck in a pattern similar to the 60s through the 80s, but more towards the end of it potentially. Still means another potential big drop before resuming a longer term cyclical bull market. It also bellies the fact that over the very long term, stocks do make returns, but you have to be prudent in managing the intermediate term bear markets.
http://blogs.stockcharts.com/.a/6a0105370026df970c0176174ece70970c-pi
That elder impulse system is awesome for long term investing. Just sticking your money in an SP500 index fund and using the elder impulse system on a quarterly or monthly chart will probably beat 95% of all managed accounts, hedge funds, mutual funds etc. over the long run.
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Originally Posted By: Warstud
Glad I sold friday. Somebody wanted out of this market today. We closed down 127 points from the high.
I sold my Janus Triton Fund. Thatr was my only holding I'd consider selling. Other stock investmentsare quality stocks.
Down we go soon.
Should be buying the VIX, IMHO... Thoughts??
Glad I sold friday. Somebody wanted out of this market today. We closed down 127 points from the high.
I sold my Janus Triton Fund. Thatr was my only holding I'd consider selling. Other stock investmentsare quality stocks.
Down we go soon.
Should be buying the VIX, IMHO... Thoughts??
I'm still positioned for a rally. Got out of some longs just in case we get a more broad sell and placed limit orders to get right back in off a bounce hopefully.
I said screw it and got a little position in VRINGO. I'll get stopped out most likely
I said screw it and got a little position in VRINGO. I'll get stopped out most likely
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Originally Posted By: Warstud
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
Originally Posted By: Pablo
And my biggest losers are gold and metals.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/07/us-usa-fed-rosengren-idUSBRE8760NR20120807
This slowdown in metals I thought was a topping process since late last year, but I think it might be somewhat of a flag or pennant to the larger bull market. If the Fed came out and said they're going to do QE into perpetuity, gold and silver and miners might do another parabolic upswing (even though it probably doesn't mean an end to the treasury bull market or some dollar collapse scenario). That will also be very bullish for stocks and other risk assets. I'm sitting tight ready to jump in if/when it happens, especially for precious metals.
Looks like a breakout on the upside in Gold will happen soon.
I just got into the NUGT ETF. Metals have formed a rock solid base and now they're breaking out.
http://www.businessinsider.com/fomc-august-minutes-2012-8
Now that The US federal Reserve and the ECB basically control financial markets, I guess it would be dumb to be too bearish, given that the CBs will step in at any point there is a hint of deflation or a crash like 2008.
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
Originally Posted By: Pablo
And my biggest losers are gold and metals.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/07/us-usa-fed-rosengren-idUSBRE8760NR20120807
This slowdown in metals I thought was a topping process since late last year, but I think it might be somewhat of a flag or pennant to the larger bull market. If the Fed came out and said they're going to do QE into perpetuity, gold and silver and miners might do another parabolic upswing (even though it probably doesn't mean an end to the treasury bull market or some dollar collapse scenario). That will also be very bullish for stocks and other risk assets. I'm sitting tight ready to jump in if/when it happens, especially for precious metals.
Looks like a breakout on the upside in Gold will happen soon.
I just got into the NUGT ETF. Metals have formed a rock solid base and now they're breaking out.
http://www.businessinsider.com/fomc-august-minutes-2012-8
Now that The US federal Reserve and the ECB basically control financial markets, I guess it would be dumb to be too bearish, given that the CBs will step in at any point there is a hint of deflation or a crash like 2008.
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
That elder impulse system is awesome for long term investing. Just sticking your money in an SP500 index fund and using the elder impulse system on a quarterly or monthly chart will probably beat 95% of all managed accounts, hedge funds, mutual funds etc. over the long run.
Probably half of my portfolio is in any number of market index funds. They have incredibly low expense ratios, are fairly predictable, and as you say, will perform very well over the long haul. The rest of my portolfio has outperformed my index funds this year, but I will admit that most of that has been because of AAPL and AGNC, two stocks that have really outperformed this year and whose short term performance isn't really sustainable over the long run.
That elder impulse system is awesome for long term investing. Just sticking your money in an SP500 index fund and using the elder impulse system on a quarterly or monthly chart will probably beat 95% of all managed accounts, hedge funds, mutual funds etc. over the long run.
Probably half of my portfolio is in any number of market index funds. They have incredibly low expense ratios, are fairly predictable, and as you say, will perform very well over the long haul. The rest of my portolfio has outperformed my index funds this year, but I will admit that most of that has been because of AAPL and AGNC, two stocks that have really outperformed this year and whose short term performance isn't really sustainable over the long run.
Originally Posted By: Hokiefyd
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
That elder impulse system is awesome for long term investing. Just sticking your money in an SP500 index fund and using the elder impulse system on a quarterly or monthly chart will probably beat 95% of all managed accounts, hedge funds, mutual funds etc. over the long run.
Probably half of my portfolio is in any number of market index funds. They have incredibly low expense ratios, are fairly predictable, and as you say, will perform very well over the long haul. The rest of my portolfio has outperformed my index funds this year, but I will admit that most of that has been because of AAPL and AGNC, two stocks that have really outperformed this year and whose short term performance isn't really sustainable over the long run.
With market conditions like they are though, you have to be prepared to get out at any moment. There are so many known but manageable variables that could take the market down just like in 2008. Europe, Iran, our banking system, a stupid bet by a big bank (Kyle Bass anyone).
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
That elder impulse system is awesome for long term investing. Just sticking your money in an SP500 index fund and using the elder impulse system on a quarterly or monthly chart will probably beat 95% of all managed accounts, hedge funds, mutual funds etc. over the long run.
Probably half of my portfolio is in any number of market index funds. They have incredibly low expense ratios, are fairly predictable, and as you say, will perform very well over the long haul. The rest of my portolfio has outperformed my index funds this year, but I will admit that most of that has been because of AAPL and AGNC, two stocks that have really outperformed this year and whose short term performance isn't really sustainable over the long run.
With market conditions like they are though, you have to be prepared to get out at any moment. There are so many known but manageable variables that could take the market down just like in 2008. Europe, Iran, our banking system, a stupid bet by a big bank (Kyle Bass anyone).
Originally Posted By: tpitcher
C'mon markets, hurry up & correct so I can invest!
Anyone else anxious to get lots more back in the game??
If you look at cyclical risk off vs risk on sector rotation, we could possibly be at least in the middle of a fairly healthy rally, or potentially at the beginning. In most of the risk on vs risk off ratios we're right at resistance which coincides with the equity indexes at double tops. If we can punch through in a meaningful way and the double top area becomes support, watch out, cause the market could go a lot higher. If we get support on the bottom trend line from this latest pullback, I'm a buyer.
C'mon markets, hurry up & correct so I can invest!
Anyone else anxious to get lots more back in the game??
If you look at cyclical risk off vs risk on sector rotation, we could possibly be at least in the middle of a fairly healthy rally, or potentially at the beginning. In most of the risk on vs risk off ratios we're right at resistance which coincides with the equity indexes at double tops. If we can punch through in a meaningful way and the double top area becomes support, watch out, cause the market could go a lot higher. If we get support on the bottom trend line from this latest pullback, I'm a buyer.
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Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
Originally Posted By: tpitcher
C'mon markets, hurry up & correct so I can invest!
Anyone else anxious to get lots more back in the game??
If you look at cyclical risk off vs risk on sector rotation, we could possibly be at least in the middle of a fairly healthy rally, or potentially at the beginning. In most of the risk on vs risk off ratios we're right at resistance which coincides with the equity indexes at double tops. If we can punch through in a meaningful way and the double top area becomes support, watch out, cause the market could go a lot higher. If we get support on the bottom trend line from this latest pullback, I'm a buyer.
I agree Drew. We'll see...
I did buy some AGNC for the IRA at a low today. I got WAY too much in MM cash.
Originally Posted By: tpitcher
C'mon markets, hurry up & correct so I can invest!
Anyone else anxious to get lots more back in the game??
If you look at cyclical risk off vs risk on sector rotation, we could possibly be at least in the middle of a fairly healthy rally, or potentially at the beginning. In most of the risk on vs risk off ratios we're right at resistance which coincides with the equity indexes at double tops. If we can punch through in a meaningful way and the double top area becomes support, watch out, cause the market could go a lot higher. If we get support on the bottom trend line from this latest pullback, I'm a buyer.
I agree Drew. We'll see...
I did buy some AGNC for the IRA at a low today. I got WAY too much in MM cash.
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
With market conditions like they are though, you have to be prepared to get out at any moment. There are so many known but manageable variables that could take the market down just like in 2008. Europe, Iran, our banking system, a stupid bet by a big bank (Kyle Bass anyone).
I'm not really one to try to time the market. You can save a large loss by getting out before a fall, but at the same time, you might also miss a big rally if you're already out. You nearly have as much of a chance of missing a rally as you do of saving a loss. I have a limited amount of time to spend on watching the market, but I'm sure that those who have more time than I do can lessen their risk. For long-term investing without applying a ton of time to it, keeping your stuff in the market, collecting dividends, and staying the course seems to provide the best pay-off. I have smaller amounts of money that I "play" with...half for fun and half for the educational value.
AGNC has been an excellent dividend-paying stock. It was close to 20% when I bought it back in December, but it's down to about 14% right now. I don't know how long the environment will be fruitful for mREITs, but even if they eventually have to cut the dividend again, it's still a very healthy kick-off for those looking for a buy-it-and-hold-it equity.
With market conditions like they are though, you have to be prepared to get out at any moment. There are so many known but manageable variables that could take the market down just like in 2008. Europe, Iran, our banking system, a stupid bet by a big bank (Kyle Bass anyone).
I'm not really one to try to time the market. You can save a large loss by getting out before a fall, but at the same time, you might also miss a big rally if you're already out. You nearly have as much of a chance of missing a rally as you do of saving a loss. I have a limited amount of time to spend on watching the market, but I'm sure that those who have more time than I do can lessen their risk. For long-term investing without applying a ton of time to it, keeping your stuff in the market, collecting dividends, and staying the course seems to provide the best pay-off. I have smaller amounts of money that I "play" with...half for fun and half for the educational value.
AGNC has been an excellent dividend-paying stock. It was close to 20% when I bought it back in December, but it's down to about 14% right now. I don't know how long the environment will be fruitful for mREITs, but even if they eventually have to cut the dividend again, it's still a very healthy kick-off for those looking for a buy-it-and-hold-it equity.
Originally Posted By: Hokiefyd
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
With market conditions like they are though, you have to be prepared to get out at any moment. There are so many known but manageable variables that could take the market down just like in 2008. Europe, Iran, our banking system, a stupid bet by a big bank (Kyle Bass anyone).
I'm not really one to try to time the market. You can save a large loss by getting out before a fall, but at the same time, you might also miss a big rally if you're already out. You nearly have as much of a chance of missing a rally as you do of saving a loss. I have a limited amount of time to spend on watching the market, but I'm sure that those who have more time than I do can lessen their risk. For long-term investing without applying a ton of time to it, keeping your stuff in the market, collecting dividends, and staying the course seems to provide the best pay-off. I have smaller amounts of money that I "play" with...half for fun and half for the educational value.
AGNC has been an excellent dividend-paying stock. It was close to 20% when I bought it back in December, but it's down to about 14% right now. I don't know how long the environment will be fruitful for mREITs, but even if they eventually have to cut the dividend again, it's still a very healthy kick-off for those looking for a buy-it-and-hold-it equity.
Probably into 2014.
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
With market conditions like they are though, you have to be prepared to get out at any moment. There are so many known but manageable variables that could take the market down just like in 2008. Europe, Iran, our banking system, a stupid bet by a big bank (Kyle Bass anyone).
I'm not really one to try to time the market. You can save a large loss by getting out before a fall, but at the same time, you might also miss a big rally if you're already out. You nearly have as much of a chance of missing a rally as you do of saving a loss. I have a limited amount of time to spend on watching the market, but I'm sure that those who have more time than I do can lessen their risk. For long-term investing without applying a ton of time to it, keeping your stuff in the market, collecting dividends, and staying the course seems to provide the best pay-off. I have smaller amounts of money that I "play" with...half for fun and half for the educational value.
AGNC has been an excellent dividend-paying stock. It was close to 20% when I bought it back in December, but it's down to about 14% right now. I don't know how long the environment will be fruitful for mREITs, but even if they eventually have to cut the dividend again, it's still a very healthy kick-off for those looking for a buy-it-and-hold-it equity.
Probably into 2014.
I tend to disagree. You can time the market fairly well using things like Elder Impulse and IBDs market pulse. Buying and holding, or god forbid, dollar cost averaging into bear markets can be disastrous.
It's all risk management.
I'm young enough where I don't have to make risky moves to amass a lot of money by retirement. My dad is 60 and has over 1.2 million dollars in his IRA. His strategy has always been index investing. With that much kitty, he can take out $60,000/year and as long as his portfolio is making a nominal 5%, it's pretty much self-sustaining. One can live REAL comfortable in retirement on $60,000 per annum. Even if you convert it all to cash at that point, which is certainly a reasonable idea, you've got 20 years' worth of $60k salaries.
I have no doubt that you can time the market if you put enough research time into it. That's why I said that for long-term investing, without also putting a lot of time into it, buying and holding is generally a very good approach. It's not for everyone. But it does work.
I'm young enough where I don't have to make risky moves to amass a lot of money by retirement. My dad is 60 and has over 1.2 million dollars in his IRA. His strategy has always been index investing. With that much kitty, he can take out $60,000/year and as long as his portfolio is making a nominal 5%, it's pretty much self-sustaining. One can live REAL comfortable in retirement on $60,000 per annum. Even if you convert it all to cash at that point, which is certainly a reasonable idea, you've got 20 years' worth of $60k salaries.
I have no doubt that you can time the market if you put enough research time into it. That's why I said that for long-term investing, without also putting a lot of time into it, buying and holding is generally a very good approach. It's not for everyone. But it does work.
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