Originally Posted By: 440Magnum
Originally Posted By: andrewg
Regardless of much of the public negativity towards commercial flying, people will fly. There is no viable choice in many circumstances. You either fly, or deal with an even more inconvenient alternative. Boeing has been receiving many aircraft orders....in the billions of dollars. They have a backlog and are still hiring workers as production increases. I suspect Airbus is doing the same. With the older aircraft using hugely expensive amounts of fuel, the race to obtain fuel efficiency in their fleets is on. I think the two manufacturers will most likely survive one another in the foreseeable future. Being a Boeing employee myself, I obviously hope that the 787 and the 737Max shows the industry that we are ahead in this game. As for the airlines themselves and customer service? Folks seem to choose the low cost budget airlines (with often very poor service) such as Southwest over more expensive ticket prices (and better service). So it's sort of customer driven to some respect that the industry is the way it is. I think overall it's fuel prices however.
Yes, people will fly because they have to, and the airlines will grind along painfully on razor-thin profit margins, always teetering on the edge and always at risk of any big up-swing in fuel prices. My rhetorical question (I don't think there is an answer) is how can that industry get back to something close to its golden years (60s-80s) when flying was reasonably pleasant, affordable, and the airlines were profitable without making the customers angry from the time they entered one airport until the time they left at their destination?
I agree that the budget airlines are doing the best. Poor service? I disagree. Southwest service, for example, is very friendly and efficient compared to AA, Delta, United, etc. And the funny thing is that while those others still offer good service in first class (I have enough AA miles to regularly upgrade), in coach the service is about equal to SWA. Sure, you CAN buy a $5.00 stale sandwich if you want to, but that's the only advantage I see and frankly I'd rather carry on my own bag of chicken nuggets than eat that mess. As for seating, unless you're at least a first-tier frequent flier on the big guys, you're probably getting a middle seat if you don't book weeks in advance. On Southwest you can pay your $10 for "Early Bird" check-in, and you are pretty much guaranteed and A or B boarding position. So provided you're anywhere close to being on-time in physically arriving at your gate you can get a decent seat. Or you can skip the $10 at manually do an on-line check-in RIGHT at 24 hours prior and usually achieve the same thing if you're a fast click when the clock rolls over that last second.
I think the tables have actually turned, and the "budget" airlines now offer more practical, useful service than the big boys, at least for the casual traveler.
The airframe makers will find a way to soldier on, but if the industry contracts it will eventually ripple down. The difference in fuel economy between an old MD-80 and a new 737 may be huge and is a real incentive to get rid of the MD-80 (except for the fact that maintenance on them is so cheap because they're reliable as bricks), but when the MD-80s retire and the old 737 "Classics" are gone, then what? Is the fuel efficiency difference between the newest 737 and an aging 757 great enough to put the 757 into the 3rd world or freight hauling significantly before its end-of-life (as happened to all those 727s and DC-10/MD-11s 10-15 years ago)? Or is replacement going to slow down once most of the 1980s-built aircraft are replaced?
I didn't elaborate on the service issue as much as I should have. While you are correct that when compared to other U.S. carriers (excluding a handful such as Alaska Airlines) Southwest is at least equal. (Although the seating and boarding procedure is akin to loading a Greyhound). What I was actually comparing the low budget domestic carriers to was the international routes and European airlines that still cater to that service the older folks here recall (excellent food and superior flight attendants).
I certainly agree that the MD-80 is a super low maintenance aircraft. The head of my division at Boeing used to be a big suit at the old Northwest Airlines, and he said the same thing.
The new 737Max should be a good improvement over the current model in terms of fuel economy. The 787 certainly is over it's predecessors. Just wish Boeing would be making a profit off it sooner. I believe you are correct about production rates slowing down once the older aircraft are replaced. But that's probably over 10 years away or longer.