Has oil production peaked?

[John K]

Article in the Cincinnati Enquirer on 10/19/05, I think it appeared in USAToday on 10/17/05(by David J. Lynch). I couldn't link to it without paying. Vocal minority say production is at or near its peak. Much debate as usual. Some say it will peak in 2020. Countries consumption in Million Barrels per Day...US 20.5, China 6.68, Japan 5.29, Germany 2.63, Russia 2.57, India 2.56, S. Korea 2.28, Canada 2.2, France 1.98, Mexico 1.9. World's oil consumption is projected to go from 80(2002) to 119 million barrels per day in 2025. Exploratory wells drilled 32,639 in 1980, 6,904 in 2004. Oil well depth has gone from 3810 feet to 5249 feet 1980-2004.
Some wild quotes... "maybe we'll be driving vehicles that get 110 mpg. The Prius has gone from 48 mpg in 2001 to 55 mpg in 2005, so 110 mpg isn't out of the question." (!) He says that low oil prices in the 90s led to mergers and slashing of research spending, so the industry is not equipped to develop necessary innovations. They mention possible oil from tar sands.... I liked this quote... "Some believe if you show up at the cashier's window with enough money, *** wil put more oil in the ground." Also mentions a 91 page study prepared in February for the Energy Department which concluded: "The world is fast approaching the inevitable peaking of conventional world oil production...(a problem) unlike any yet faced by modern industrial society." The article covered almost a half page in the paper.....

 

[Mitch Alsup]

Whether oil production has reached its peak
and
Whether USA consumption has reached its peak
Are totally different questions.

The rise of China and India as oil consumers is bound to restrict the consumption of oil in the already consuming countries.

The destabilization of the middle east is not going to help oil production one iota.

 

[kenw]

"Some believe if you show up at the cashier's window with enough money, *** wil put more oil in the ground."

not quite, but if you show up with more money, we'll look harder and deeper for some. The easy (read: cheap) to find (and get out!) stuff in Jed's back 40 is all gone. period. Gone.

All the little stripper wells in SE Texas and S California that were idle at $30/bbl are now working overtime. I'm seeing pumpjacks going that I haven't seen move in years. They're grossly inefficient at $30/bbl but at $60, they're grocery money makers for the little widows that still own the mineral rights.

Hi-pressure fracturing, injection and other costly means to get every drop out are now economically feasible. At $30 it's a dry field. At $60, it's available reserves.

What we can't get at $60 will be available at $110, etc. Sure, the $30/bbl production has peaked and the $60/bbl soon will, but we haven't scratched the surface of the $110/bbl stuff, and probably haven't even found the $200/bbl stuff yet. But it's out there.....

but before we go get that 200/bbl stuff up and out, you'll probably take your $$ and go elsewhere to hybrid, photovoltaic, fuel cells, et al. Economics 101: Supply and Demand. It is real and it works. But it takes time.

For now, just try to find a decent machine shop in Texas (or Western Cananda, or Northern Scotland or...) that has some capacity. They're all booked solid and working overtime just to make stuff to find oil.

Was in one yesterday, they're full and adding more equipment and hiring machinists as fast as they can find 'em.

 

[Bill J.]

"Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management" commonly referred to as the Hirsch Report
web page

Print out a copy (70+ pages) and enjoy

 

[Blake Sobiloff]

I love these scarcity scares. I was reading about "learned men" and their predictions about global economic collapse back in the late 1800's because the demand for coal was going to quickly exceed the supply. Oh, and of course, there was nothing that could replace coal as the fuel for the modern, industrial era!

Of course, now even the environmentalist whackos are coming around to nuclear energy as the best way to meet demand for electricity. One of the former founders of Greenpeace was testifying in front of Congress a month or so ago that they needed to authorize more nuke power plants ASAP!

I sat on the plane next to an investment banker earlier this week and we had a fascinating conversation about nuclear power. His comment was, in effect, that we’d never reach the hydrogen economy until we had enough nuke power plants. (Six are on the drawing boards right now, but we need over 60 in the next 10 years just to keep pace with demand.) The reason? Nuke plants produce the same amount of electricity, day or night, unlike other plants that throttle back to conserve fuel. So, what do you do with all the excess electricity at night when demand is low? Use it to generate hydrogen, even though you’re using more electricity to generate the hydrogen than you’re getting from the resulting hydrogen itself.

Although I’m not a fan of the French government, they’re *way* ahead of everyone else in this regard.

 

[Shannow]

I recall reading a book by Sir Harry Ricardo. His push 85 years ago was for thermal efficiency from I.C. engines.

He prefaced his work with "We started running out of oil the day we started using it".

 

[XS650]

quote:

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Originally posted by Shannow:
I recall reading a book by Sir Harry Ricardo. His push 85 years ago was for thermal efficiency from I.C. engines.

He prefaced his work with "We started running out of oil the day we started using it".

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Someone will be along shortly to say Ricardo was wrong about that

 

[PandaBear]

quote:

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Someone will be along shortly to say Ricardo was wrong about that

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And Bill Gate's 640k ought to be enough for everybody remark on memory limit of DOS.

The benefit of Nuke plant is not only hydrogen economy, but as the future of electric car comes (if we can make the battery lighter and bigger, and dump the hybrid) the extra capacity will be used to charge them at night.

I have seen an interview of a semiconductor foundry's CEO on news.com, that he mentioned going into solar panel business by recycling all the obsoleted low tech equipments. Can't wait.

 

[XS650]

quote:

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Originally posted by PandaBear:

I have seen an interview of a semiconductor foundry's CEO on news.com, that he mentioned going into solar panel business by recycling all the obsoleted low tech equipments. Can't wait.

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I'll put that one right up there with running the nations automotive fleet on used cooking oil.

 

[John K]

An interview on Foreign Exchange of Fadel Gheit of Oppenheimer & Co - #1: Don't trust what the government says, #2: Don't trust what OPEC says. Saudi Arabia can't deliver on their promises of producing more oil, they don't have the production capability, and won't invest in any more. A thing they put up on the screen at the end of the interview... "Over the past 30 years OPEC producers made more than $7 trillion in profit. And the cartel's coffers are still overflowing. OPEC's oil-export revenues have shot up from $100 billion in 1998 to 340 billion in 2004." Interesting numbers....... It seems too that there is a question about Saudi Arabia's published oil reserves....the numbers come from Suadi Arabia without any confirmation from anyone else.

 

[Steve S]

John K. , But the goverenment is here to help.

 

[Bill J.]

For a contrarian view that debunks the "fossil fuel" theory, the "the deep abiotic theory" that the earth is continually supplying petroleum

"Black Gold Stranglehold, The Myth of Scarcity and the Politics of Oil"

2005 by Jerome R.Corsi and Craig R. Smith 269 pp.

 

[Bobert]

peak oil = scam

 

[ekrampitzjr]

Starting to suspect this too. Too many scaremongering books with titles such as The End of Oil out there. Another thread mentions the huge resources in shale in the US Rocky Mountains, and don't forget the Canadian tar sands.

That said, there is no reason to waste this resource; these new sources will be expensive. My hunch is that in 10 years' time (or so), four-ton SUVs, 400-hp German sedans, and 200-mph supercars will simply not be in the transport mix, and we'll mostly be better off for it. Either rational or rationing: it's your choice.

 

[JohnBrowning]

No! First of all geoloigists are not even sure where oil comes from in the oearth as the source. Some now think it is a renewable resource. Then you have the all of the oil reserves that are un taped in Alaska, of shore in the USA, all of the drilled and capped wells in the USA, old capped wells that were once thought to be dry are now full again etc....... THe USA and Canada have enough coal reserves to supply coal for normal uses plus supply all the oil we need for the next 400 years not counting all of the other sources of oil we have. We also have the rights to the German process of extraction.

Their are oil reserves all over the world that are under exploited. Then you also have a lot of as yet unexplored ocean floor on top of all of the easier sources.

Then you have new emergeing technologies like extracting and processing plant based oils like from creasol(sp) and Hemp. Their is also the new thermal extraction process that can basicly produce/extract hydrocarbons suteable for fuel oil and base stock oils for motor oils from anything carbon based.

All of these Peak Oil dooms day folks should be taken out back and tuned-up for fear mongering(sp).

 

[hone eagle]

Pennslyvannia is now building a coal to oil plant using a old nazi process,the coal in this one state is said to match Irans reserves

 

[robbobster]

quote:

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Although I’m not a fan of the French government, they’re *way* ahead of everyone else in this regard.

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Here's a PBS link about reasons why they the French are ahead of us in this regard.

 

[MolaKule]

I just read an article that says most geologists have historically underestimated oil reserves.

 

[JohnBrowning]

Another thing to look at is how Brasil use's it excess sugar capacity to produce ethanol that is affordable and half the price of gasoline. All future vechiles produced in Brasil must have flex fuel technology. Brasil thinks it is funny that the USA is not ahead of them in this reguard due to the USA's more inteligent population and it's natural resources. Brasil now use's home produced ethanol for 80% of it's energy needs. I just watched something on this last week on PBS I think.

 

[robbobster]

quote:

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Remember we only import less than 20% of our oil from the middle east. Most of it comes from Canada and Mexico.

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Yes, but Canadians just aren't scary enough to get people's attention. It's much easier to get folks to rally against a bad guy.