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The Hubbert Peak for World Oil
- Thread starter Mike_dup1
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I have read a lot on this in the last year or so.
Not necessary his theory but others have stated that we will hit the top of the production level in 2004-2005. We have 100 years of oil left the problem is the cheaply recovered oil to will slowly become harder and harder to find. Instead of costs of $12 per barrel to pump it will become $30 to $50 per barrel to acquire that same oil. Yes we can get oil out of shale but at $50 to $60 per barrel. The second problem is the demand curve is increasing faster than the supply curve. Based on the demand of 1990 we would be awash in oil. But come 2010 what we are pumping now will not be even come close to world demand. We are running into the same problem with natural gas production. The demand is out stripping the supply. This is one of the trigger points I was pointing out in my comments of the internal U.S. economic war in an earlier post. The Enviro nuts have been killing off the coal fired and Nuclear plants in favor of Clean Natural Gas. Oop's now we are running short on that commodity. At least with coal we have at least a 200 year supply inside the continental U.S.
Not necessary his theory but others have stated that we will hit the top of the production level in 2004-2005. We have 100 years of oil left the problem is the cheaply recovered oil to will slowly become harder and harder to find. Instead of costs of $12 per barrel to pump it will become $30 to $50 per barrel to acquire that same oil. Yes we can get oil out of shale but at $50 to $60 per barrel. The second problem is the demand curve is increasing faster than the supply curve. Based on the demand of 1990 we would be awash in oil. But come 2010 what we are pumping now will not be even come close to world demand. We are running into the same problem with natural gas production. The demand is out stripping the supply. This is one of the trigger points I was pointing out in my comments of the internal U.S. economic war in an earlier post. The Enviro nuts have been killing off the coal fired and Nuclear plants in favor of Clean Natural Gas. Oop's now we are running short on that commodity. At least with coal we have at least a 200 year supply inside the continental U.S.
In the spring of '73 I drove my 69 Toyota Corolla from NYC to Florida to crew on a road racing team. I got 40.5 MPG and it cost me $11 in gas one way.
Tolls cost more than the fuel!
What MPG might we be achieving today with 30 years more technology IF the interest was there?
IF the trend that started in 1979 continued we would all be driving 60 MPG vehicles and not discussing peak oil, or be considering using additional dirty coal power, or sending boys around the world to be killed.
Instead fuel costs fell long enough in the early 80's to kill the collective intrest in fuel economy so we now find ourselves driving 5000 pound top heavy lumps.
For What?
Tolls cost more than the fuel!
What MPG might we be achieving today with 30 years more technology IF the interest was there?
IF the trend that started in 1979 continued we would all be driving 60 MPG vehicles and not discussing peak oil, or be considering using additional dirty coal power, or sending boys around the world to be killed.
Instead fuel costs fell long enough in the early 80's to kill the collective intrest in fuel economy so we now find ourselves driving 5000 pound top heavy lumps.
For What?
This is very interesting stuff! It now really leads me to believe the Iraq war was indeed about oil and supply security. Although there seems to be no security except for conservation. This information and more is certainly known by Bush oil buddies. Maybe that's why a plan and intention to invade Iraq was on the table far before 911. Glad I can heat with wood, now for the bicycle.
I agree with most of what you said but the problem isn't that the oil will be more expensive to get out in terms of money but in terms of net energy. Same with the claim of coal reserves. If coal was the only energy available to power coal extraction then the 200 years of reserves would be much smaller. It will reach a point where you will extract 5 tones of coal and only get to keep 1 as the other 4 are needed for extraction. When it costs 1 unit of energy to extract 1 unit of energy from the ground then the situation becomes a net energy loss.quote:
Originally posted by ALS:
The Enviro nuts have been killing off the coal fired and Nuclear plants in favor of Clean Natural Gas. Oop's now we are running short on that commodity. At least with coal we have at least a 200 year supply inside the continental U.S.
On the enviro-nut statement I have to disaggree. Small environmental groups have no political power except for that which is granted to them by the globalists. They are a convienent scapegoat for people to blame when drilling is denied in certain areas. Those areas are off limits because the powers that be want them off limits. For what reason I do not know.
I do get the sense that those in control of most of the corporations have abandoned the US as a viable industrial and economic base. Perhaps because they can live anywhere in the world that they want.
From a purely capitalist point of view, the US has very little to offer now (weapons, military, raw materials, and food) and appears that it is being abandoned by capitalism.
I agree with dan4510 in that population is a large part of the problem but the biggest problem is the forms of government and economic systems we currently have worldwide. None of them meet my standards of the way things should be.
On the subject of Peak Oil I believe I have posted on it several times in the last year and the information available today just keeps reenforcing the message.
Keep your eyes out for the signs that infrastructure planning and projects related to increasing the supply of gasoline and natural gas to the US are being undertaken. If you fail to find such evidence then you should be worried.
It is not so much what is being done as what is not being done that should cause concern.
Mark in NY.5w/20 is what we got in the 30 years.
Steve, you are so right.quote:
Originally posted by Steve S:
Mark in NY.5w/20 is what we got in the 30 years.
I got it!! Lets divert our food supply via ethanol from our mouths to our SUV's gas tanks. That the ticket !
The more I watch this unfold the more I relate it to the Irish famine of the 1860's.
ie: no plan B.
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