Help me estimate true odds of timing belt failure

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Lots of hyundais for sale on craigslist with right around 100k/10-12 years that blew the belts.

Two things at work

1) "disposable car attitude" towards upkeep
2) age as well as mileage.
 
A T-belt failure gets much more expensive on a V-type engine.

Back in 1994, the T-belt in mom's 1985 Maxima broke and back then it was a $1600 job to fix. That car went to the crusher.

Also, many times, a T-belt only fails because the tensioner or idler pulleys seize.

That, or it gets replaced when the water pump dies.
 
Shannow is right. It's all about the bell curve. The further from the center, the less likely it is you have one of those parts. But it can't be predicted, and that's the problem.

As for what to do about it, you just have to balance the costs. If a failure will grenade the engine, it will more likely pay to replace it more often. If a failure will strand you 1000 miles from home, same thing. If its a grocery getter and you have AAA towing, it probably pays to wait until it fails or until you have to change something else related.

As for failures, I've only ever had one fail on me. 1978 Dodge Omni. My grandmother bought it new, yadda, yadda, yadda, I got it in 1991. It had 40,000 miles on it. Timing belt failed same way it did for someone else- driving along at cruising altitude and it just dropped dead. Same deal too, enough teeth fell off that it was spinning on the crank. Thankfully, a friend's dad was a shadetree kind of guy and fixed it for me. I "helped" and I think he charged me $40. Coolest thing I've ever seen- dude tore into that engine like a madman and had me back on the road in two hours I think.

Meanwhile, now I'm driving a 18 year old Dodge with 213,000 miles. I changed the t-belt at 140,000 and the darn thing looked practically new.
 
Regarding the 2001 Lexus RX300:

A toyota tech. mentioned that the service manual (or an update) states that your engine's TB should be changed at 6 years or 90K miles.

Having a sludge-prone engine shouldn't matter, unless you have sludge, or course. :) Just kidding. I really don't know what happens when sludge attacks. I assume there's engine wear and probably more heat.
 
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I had an old '86 Escort. The owner's manual listed that item as 60k service but the Timing belt never made it that far and always failed between 40-45k. That car left me stranded many times.
 
The timing belt kit is about 30$ and takes me a leisurely 4 hrs to change. It gets changed every 60k whether it needs it or not.
 
I've never seen or heard of a TB failure on a Festiva/Aspire. The recommended interval is 60k. The highest mileage I've changed was 160k and it dry rotted between the teeth but still hadn't snapped. My wifes Corrolla had over 200k on the original same thing. If it's a interference engine I'd be tempted to changed it 10-20k early... never had one though.
 
I remember those timing belt worryin days. It was nerve wracking driving my 92 Mitsubishi mirage knowing the timing belt was over 60k miles. but I made it and sold it with the t-belt almost 70k miles.
 
Originally Posted By: KeithG
Regarding the 2001 Lexus RX300:

A toyota tech. mentioned that the service manual (or an update) states that your engine's TB should be changed at 6 years or 90K miles.

Having a sludge-prone engine shouldn't matter, unless you have sludge, or course. :) Just kidding. I really don't know what happens when sludge attacks. I assume there's engine wear and probably more heat.


Thanks. I will pass that on to the owner. A Lexus service adviser said 90,000 miles but could not give me an answer on how many years.

I was confusing a TB with a chain with the sludge motor question. After I thought about it I realized it would not effect a TB.
 
The old belts that needed 60k changes were the square toothed ones.
New belts are round toothed, and usually better materials.
It is wise to change pulleys with a belt. Pulleys cause a belt to puke, and not often the other way around. Pulleys don;t have an infinite life.
 
Something I'm interested in: How much does AGE have to do with timing belt failure? My Mitsubishi has 63k miles on it but it's also nine years old. I know that this engine rarely (if ever) sees a timing belt failure at that low mileage...but the age is a whole different concern.
 
Originally Posted By: Cutehumor
It was nerve wracking driving my 92 Mitsubishi mirage knowing the timing belt was over 60k miles.


Brings back memories of a trip to Dubuque Iowa I made one winter afternoon a few years ago to pick up a friend whose Eclipse lost a timing belt and he'd had it towed about 75 miles to the dealer. Between the repair, the towing bill, and I believe a night in a motel I'd hate to know what this little outing cost him.

That's why its important to change it before something leaves you stranded.
 
My neighbor's '04 Volvo V 70 (2.4 liter) recommends belt replacement at 80,000 miles. He ignored this and went on a trip. It failed at 85,000 miles cruising down the highway. Interference engine, bent valves, very expensive repair.
 
Originally Posted By: Chuck1986
Something I'm interested in: How much does AGE have to do with timing belt failure? My Mitsubishi has 63k miles on it but it's also nine years old. I know that this engine rarely (if ever) sees a timing belt failure at that low mileage...but the age is a whole different concern.


I just changed the belt on my Grandmothers '98 Cirrus (1997 build with the 2.5L V6 Mitsubishi engine) it has 40k miles on it but I was worried about the age. It looked brand new, and had I have been able to see it before I had it torn apart I never would have changed it due to the age.
 
On a non-interference engine, I suppose it isn't a big deal. If it breaks, it breaks, just be ready to fix it. That's the approach my parents took with their old Ranger. I think the interval for belt changes on that truck was probably 60K miles, but the original belt broke sometime after 100K. The belt broke in the morning and the truck was back on the road that afternoon.

On an interference engine, don't risk it. I'd follow the manufacturer's suggested interval exactly.
 
interference engines are the ones to worry about. I do my honda every 90 to 100K. my last one was about 120K. i was kinda nervous. I always use an OEM honda belt (hondapartsnow.com is cheapest) but use aftermarket/gates belts for everything else. if it is not an interference engine then all you risk is being stranded while interference engines with TB failure will most likely result in replaceing the engine since the pistons hit the valves.
 
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