Investors....come in please!

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Pablo,

If it goes up for ya, you can thank me.

If it goes down, blame Oldmoparguy1 because he jinxed ya.

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LOL.gif
 
Originally Posted By: VeeDubb
Al, keep your eyes on that DBC

Nice article and thanks for the "Econbroser"..nice source.

I am out of Commodities for about a month. My last involvement was OIL..in at 90 out at 100 for 100 shares. I did GLD a couple months back. I got out when it was still in the 800's. Its just too high a risk for me. And I'm not sure how much more there is to go.

My lessons have come at a high cost, but I learn them. I got burned in the 70's when gold spiked to 800 bucks for a day and the next day it was at 400 or so. You couldn't get out then (no ETF's)

I'm strictly into currencies except for some foreign mutuals. That's my Flight to Safety"
 
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Originally Posted By: PF
Thornburg Mortgage (NYSE: TMA) came out with further announcements that it has additional reverse-repurchase agreement deals that are bringing further margin calls, given the continued massive selling in the general mortgage securities market.

The cash needed is more than what was built up earlier this week in its shift from the reverse repos to traditional financing against the company's whole loan assets.

All of its bank, broker and other financial counterparties have agreed to sit through the end of today. Thus far, they've all mutually agreed to extent the no-action on a day-by-day basis until a permanent workout is put into place.

The company's woes aren't new, yet the workout isn't as dire right now as many headlines are screaming in the media.

In addition, the company is restating its asset values on its annual and quarterly statements to better reflect the market value of its assets and portfolio of mortgages to indicate current mark to market values. Again, this is good news.

And the company has stated that its full book value under Generally Accepted Accounting Practices (GAAP) is still more than $8 a share.

Also, management states that it will continue to resolve the short-term liquidity issues and bring long-term value to shareholders.

At this point, these words shouldn't be taken lightly.

Here's what we're doing. Just as we wrote yesterday, selling doesn't make any sense. This also goes for the 8 percent bonds due in May 2013 as well as the preferred shares, including the 8 percent and 10 percent dividend rate preferreds.

We'll continue to follow the ongoing evolution of its capital and liquidity and will look for a resolution in the coming days.

A lot is being reported in the larger market that's hyped and inaccurate. As a result, we're including the following statement directly from the company.

Thornburg Mortgage announced today that the company has received a letter dated March 4, 2008, from its independent auditor, KPMG LLP, stating that their audit report, dated February 27, 2008, on the company's consolidated financial statements as of December 31, 2007, and 2006, and for the two-year period ended December 31, 2007, which is included in the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2007, should no longer be relied upon.

As a result, the company's Board of Directors determined that the financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2007, should be restated.

The company noted that difficult market conditions that have resulted in a significant deterioration of prices of mortgage-backed collateral, combined with a liquidity position under unprecedented pressure from increased margin calls by its reverse repurchase agreement lenders, a portion of which the company has been unable to meet, have raised substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern.

In addition, the Company may not have the ability to hold certain of its purchased [adjustable rate mortgage] ARM assets to recovery and, accordingly, on March 5, 2008, the Company concluded that a $427.8 million charge for impairment on its purchased ARM assets is required as of December 31, 2007, in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles.

Based upon a review of credit ratings, delinquency data and other information, the company does not believe these unrealized losses, for the most part, are reflective of credit deterioration.

The company believes that this restatement of its consolidated financial statements will not have a material impact on the company's book value at December 31, 2007.

In the company's 2007 Annual Report on Form 10-K filed on February 28, 2008, the company reported GAAP book value as of December 31, 2007, of $8.36 per common share, compared to a GAAP book value of $8.40 per common share, after reflecting the effect of the preliminary restatement of the company's 2007 consolidated financial statements.

The increase in book value is attributable to the company's elimination of the fourth-quarter performance fee payable to the company's manager, which increased the book value by $0.04 per common share.

Thornburg Mortgage President and Chief Executive Officer Larry Goldstone noted that companies are required to value their asset portfolios at the price that the portfolio could be sold in the market as of the financial statement date. Companies must recognize a loss in the income statement if they are not able to hold the assets until their value is recovered, even if those companies have no intention of selling their portfolios.

"The mortgage financing market's complete inability to differentiate and appropriately value superior AAA-/AA-rated mortgage securities from all other mortgage assets is as unprecedented as it is frustrating," said Mr. Goldstone. "Our portfolio of mortgage-backed securities has exhibited exceptional credit performance and comprises loans that are among the most solid in the industry. Quite simply, the panic that has gripped the mortgage financing market is irrational and has no basis in investment reality."

The company had readily available liquidity of approximately $580.0 million at December 31, 2007. Through the close of business on March 6, 2008, the company had received $1.777 billion in margin calls since December 31, 2007, and had satisfied $1.167 billion of those margin calls primarily by using its available liquidity, principal and interest payments and proceeds from the sale of assets. As of close of business on March 6, 2008, the company had outstanding margin calls of $610.0 million which significantly exceeded its available liquidity at that date.

The company has entered into a temporary syndicate agreement with its remaining reverse repurchase agreement counterparties which freezes additional margin calls through Friday, March 7, 2008, while the company pursues solutions to its liquidity shortfall.

This agreement is renewable at the option of the company's lenders and the company. Through the close of business on March 6, 2008, the company had received notices of event of default under reverse repurchase agreements from four different lenders.

The company is working to meet all of its outstanding margin calls within a timeframe acceptable to its lenders, through a combination of selling portfolio assets, issuing collateralized mortgage debt and raising additional debt or equity capital.

Since December 31, 2007, and through the close of business on March 6, 2008, the company has reduced its portfolio of ARM assets financed with recourse financing by approximately $4.6 billion, of which $1.9 billion has been permanently financed in order to reduce its exposure to margin calls. The company also has raised $488.0 million in equity capital since December 31, 2007, and seeks to raise additional capital in order to provide a more stable base of liquidity during a period when the company expects market conditions to remain difficult for at least several months.

The $427.8 million impairment charge resulted in a decrease in management fees of $300,000 and the elimination of the fourth quarter performance fee of $5.4 million. The company intends to reflect the revised financial information in an amended Annual Report on Form 10-K/A.

Noting that Thornburg Mortgage's executive team is working relentlessly to meet its outstanding obligations to its reverse repurchase agreement lenders, stabilize its lending platform, and increase its liquidity position, Mr. Goldstone concluded, "We are committed to implementing initiatives that will resolve our current liquidity issues so we can deliver long-term growth, continue as a going concern, and ensure stability for our shareholders and for the company."

Thornburg Mortgage is a leading single-family residential mortgage lender focused principally on prime and super-prime borrowers seeking jumbo and super-jumbo adjustable-rate mortgages. The company seeks to deliver value and steady growth for its shareholders by acquiring high-quality mortgage-backed securities, and growing its share of the mortgage loan origination business.

Capitalizing on its innovative portfolio lending model, REIT tax structure and leading-edge technology, Thornburg Mortgage is a highly efficient provider of specialized mortgage loan products for borrowers nationwide with excellent credit.

Certain matters discussed in this press release may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, such as our plans to raise additional capital, our ability to continue as a going concern, and the long-term impact on our business.

These forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections, and are not guarantees of future performance, events or results. The words "believe," "anticipate," "intend," "aim," "expect," "will," "strive," "target," "project," "have confidence" and similar words identify forward-looking statements.

Actual results and developments could differ materially from those expressed in or contemplated by the forward-looking statements due to a number of factors, including general economic conditions, our ability to raise additional capital, our ability to retain or sell additional assets, the impact of additional margin calls, the receipt of additional notices of default under reverse repurchase agreements, our ability to timely file an amended Form 10-K/A, market prices for mortgage securities, interest rates, the availability of ARM securities and loans for acquisition and other risk factors discussed in the company's SEC reports, including its most recent annual report on Form 10-K. The company does not undertake to update, revise or correct any of the forward-looking information.

For further information, contact Clay Simmons or Suzanne O'Leary Lopez of Thornburg Mortgage at 505-989-1900 or e-mail [email protected].
 
I'll watch TMA super close Monday and see if there looks like hope to make $$$$.
 
What follows is the complete weekend update sent to all trading members and partners. >>>>>>>>

If this weekend’s update had a title it would be, “All good things must come to an end”.

What a roller coaster huh? Well, it was expected. It was also expected that as we entered March things would get wilder.

We could stay with this whipsaw theme for 6-8 more weeks & base out per the pattern projection since X-Mas eve. The other option is we get a final and very big plunge followed by the reverse signal from last fall within a month or so.

We had been looking for the Jan. lows to go unless the projected pattern we were in held.

The Fri. action has broken the projected pattern we’ve traded for the past 3 months with the mid morning doji. While one anomaly doesn’t bake the cake, we have more evidence.

With the early Fri. doji alert, which was dead on followed by the late afternoon price level violation we have additional evidence. Even though the price violation was less than .5% I’ll be back on bear alert if we get one more confirming signal.

If we see another midweek high much like was forecast to occur for last week that should be the clincher.

While the March 8 cycle still appears important, should the pattern turn on us projections suggest April levels of 1220 - 1160. This then should give us a reversal signal from last fall instead of these constant pattern buy & sells if the price levels come into play by or before mid April.

Now, if all the above happens this is good for another reason. That will take out of the long-term forecast of a sideways to slightly lower into mid-year, which was the original thinking if we got a first quarter plunge. This could make April our annual low instead of midyear.

So the bottom line is this. Let’s take a deep breath & be patient a bit longer. I know many are looking to jump in this week on any weakness. Let’s hold off and see how this plays out even if we do get some weakness into midweek.

If we get a pattern buy signal there’ll be plenty of opportunities to climb in, as we should stay somewhat in a sideways theme for some time. If we get a deep probe with a bottom signal I’ll again be able to get you in at or very near the true bottom.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

S/T traders>>>

I’ll be out of the room most of this week but should be able to stop by with a fast note around mid day Wed. Mon, Thurs. & Fri. will be covered but Tues. is vacant this week.

For now let’s go under the assumption the pattern has changed or is about to change.

We should be up most of Mon. If so we’ll then top out by Thur. if not by Wed. with the likely hood most of the S/T gains are in on Tues. This is part of the key to having busted our multi-month pattern.

I would not hold longs past Tues. Then use any further strength to build aggressive short positions. In fact, taking a small short on Tues. if we’re up should be ok when looking at the big picture.

Remember, the following week is a short week with Good Fri. Expect faster than normal expansion and compression over the next 2 weeks.

If the pattern changes it might get very wild, very fast and the next several weeks might be very spectacular.

Have a good week

The Lone Wolf
 
Special note for BITOG members.

My time over the next few weeks will hinder me from appearing much on this thread. Any questions can be PMed to insure I read them. If I find them to not create a conflict I’ll post the question & answer along with the questionnaires ID on this thread as time permits.

Please, be patient with any response as I have a lot of things on my plate this week.

As previously suggested I’ll pop in with the all clear whenever that is.
 
Originally Posted By: Pablo
TMA = worthless

I'm trying to decide to be patient or jump off a building.


I'm on the ground floor, so the worst I could do is sprain an ankle...

Bad day at black rock....

I'm hoping for a miracle..
 
Originally Posted By: tpitcher
Pablo,

If it goes up for ya, you can thank me.

If it goes down, blame Oldmoparguy1 because he jinxed ya.

crazy2.gif
LOL.gif




Wazzutt me...

Let's hope for a miracle.
 
Just rambling here since I have a few minutes. Did the same to some of my members a few minutes ago in our chat room.

I see most of the Jan. lows are gone. We were expecting them to go.

I just went under the assumption we’d have general weakness into midweek and try to find the cycle with the most influence. With all the blasted cycle overlaps we have it’s a draw between the next few days or early April.

Even if we get a print low around midweek, I’ll not be surprised if there was very little upside into early next week.

The other issue with the March 13-ish cycle is the fed meeting next week Tues. The market just might go into a slow bleed or stall into that event if we got a rather firm low in the next couple days, which makes the most sense of anything right now despite a couple other factors I’m seeing.

Then the fed could send us down like a rock or stabilize things.

The Fri. anomaly still has me on edge even though today was down, which the pattern called for.

Here’s another twist. Of the over 50 indicators we use, including our proprietary methods we have an almost equal mix. Some are on buys and some are on sells. This applies to almost all S/T & intermediate term issues, which adds to the odds of a sideways mess to last for some time even if we got a bottom signal in a few days.

Right now it looks like we’d get a few faint buy signals if we get into the 1235-ish area.

Then if early April is the hit 1150-ish is possible, which is about 7% lower. There are just a couple things that don’t add up right now for this but right now it doesn’t smell like a major bottom is real close either.

Right now unless we reverse tomorrow for a couple days I see 2 areas we want to watch close per time, which is tomorrow thru Fri. and again in early April.

I could see risking a few melons in a couple days then see if I get my head handed to me by the fed or not. Guess having shorted most of the way down I can afford to give a little back.

I know many here didn’t get out at the Feb. highs as suggested or the retest a couple weeks back. Can’t do much about that now but hopefully some have some spare cash.

Right now what I’m looking for is 2 month or so rally if we bottom out in the next few days. Early April should have longer-term implications but the market would still be choppy for many months.

Think I need a beer.

For those that are heavily loaded I’d wait for confirmation before adding.
 
Thanks - I'm sorta 1/2 arsed in - I have enough in to be smarting, but I have enough cash to jump in when we get confirmation.

Only thing I bought today was some HJS.

I need a vacation.
 
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