Investors....come in please!

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I didn't do that good, but I backed up the truck this AM. Thinking about throwing in the kitchen sink and hocking the washer and dryer....
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Originally Posted By: GROUCHO MARX
Will Thornburg remain in business?


I think yes. I hope yes. They should. Call me Mr. Pure Confidence.

I only bought X00 shares (as opposed to X000.) Which means it will go up.
 
Typo in my notes,

March 6-12

We have price targets but the partners said that was too much info outside the group, sorry.

Originally Posted By: cmhj
Here’s a portion of went out to the trading members & partners last night. >>>>>>>


Even though picking points for S/T traders has been very good the opinion is still held the period of Mar 7- 12 might give us a low that’s close enough when taking in the big picture for casual traders to get back into the general market but not at your full allocation status.

Unless we get a full buy alert, which will be sent when we read it, scaling in at selected points appears to be OK when looking at the big picture.

Those that have excessive trading restrictions it’s likely you’ll only get 2 shots at this. If the market does in the big picture what is expected, the proof point will be obvious & we’ll flash it to you.

It’s felt the bouncing yo-yo we’ve been in for about 5 weeks, which was suggested would happen shortly after the Jan. low could continue into early April. If this is the case and we have a lot of data to support this scenario the market will in a sense prove itself to us both thru the cycle projections and technically.

While the option that we’ll stay in somewhat of a trading range thru mid year still exists, data collected later this week & into early April might take that option off the table or make it very remote.

Were we to get a final bottoming signal in the next week or so, the opinion is held that the late March cycle point along with a pattern likely to work going into April will provide us with that test of a possible bottoming signal, were it to occur in the next week or so.

The whole key might rotate around a possible S/T pattern like the following.

Were we to base out early in the week, get a pop into mid week and come back down into Fri. maybe even early next week, this is likely going to be where casual traders will want to ease back in or insert a portion of their assets without the final alert signal.

Note, I said a portion of your assets or not fully invested.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Ok I think most get the general idea.
 
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We'll leave that pickin' to Pabs.

We should post our prediction on a bottom pickin' thread or post the bottom on this thread though...
 
Originally Posted By: tpitcher
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Cool - you buyin'?


I loaded up this morning. That last trade was just an opportunistic hit and run, so to speak.

I'll be either buying or selling (or both) tomorrow, depending on which way TMA is going. I don't plan on buy and hold at this time.

I like TMA, but the situation is too fluid in the short term. When, (if) TMA gets its situation under control, I'll likely get some for the div.

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Originally Posted By: Oldmoparguy1
I didn't do that good, but I backed up the truck this AM. Thinking about throwing in the kitchen sink and hocking the washer and dryer....
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I was so busy I didn't even know it popped back up to $5, but closed at $4.32. Rats.

PF Nibbler Thornburg Mortgage (NYSE: TMA) operates as an originator of primarily adjustable-rate mortgages (ARM) that are larger than what the market deemed a conforming size. Its borrowers are high credit scorers that pay their bills and are current on mortgages. Of these originations, the company (structured as a REIT pass through) holds and services them.

In addition, the company also purchases both direct mortgages and packaged bond issues from other financials--ranging from banks to mortgage companies. These purchased securities are then managed in a portfolio of investments.

It also has issued a series of pass-through trusts, which are simply pools of mortgages that are placed and traded in the US over-the-counter (OTC) market. These tend to be primarily made up of top-quality loans, consistent with its core originations. It owns interests in these trusts either partially or in full.

The company funds itself in a variety of ways.

First, it has a base of common and preferred shares that form its equity capital. It also has an intermediate-term bond in the public market. In addition, it maintains bank credit lines that are either unsecured or secured by specific collateral such as mortgages and mortgage securities.

Its challenges recently have stemmed from the portion of its portfolio that’s made up of mortgage securities that it didn’t originate and trades with other financials.

You’ve read and heard about the margin calls of the company. Because Thornburg (like the entire universe of banks and financials) doesn’t invest or trade on a cash basis, its counterparts that trade with the company demand more cash or the partial or full sale of the mortgage bonds held in investment and/or trading accounts.

This doesn’t mean that the mortgages are increasing in defaults. In fact, the core portfolio’s delinquency and default rates are infinitesimal. But that won’t stop the market from pushing mortgage bond prices lower and sending rates higher.

Thornburg understands the intrinsic values of its mortgages and mortgage bonds. Although, it hasn’t done as great a job at estimating how the market might price the overall mortgage bond market.

However, after last summer, the company reduced its leverage and the overall size of its trading and investment accounts as well as the entire mortgage portfolio.

But it still has to deal with its near-term financing and margin loan liabilities. Since last summer, it’s able to do so and then some. And, as a result, the market has been easily willing to invest in new loan facilities, new trust issues, new preferred issues and other lending to the company.

The news that it was in default over the weekend was overblown. It stemmed from older news embedded in the company’s 10-K report as well as out-of-context reporting from other company releases made over the past several days.

We encourage visiting Thornburg’s Web site to read the company’s 10-K as well as its recent reports.

Meanwhile, not one of its trading partners or lenders has issued any complaints or filings. Instead, what has happened is that Thornburg has shifted even more of its loans from near-term margin and reverse-repurchase financing. Reverse repurchases occur when a bank or financial sells bonds (mortgages, treasuries, corporates, munis or other bonds) at a set price and contracts with another bank or financial to buy them back at a set price at an agreed upon time in the future. The difference between the sell and repurchase is implied interest.

Some of these transactions are what’s behind the margin calls. Some of the counterparties to these deals have the ability to demand additional cash back if the market moves the bids for the posted bonds lower.

Thornburg’s shift in financing has been made into direct bank and other loans based on the company’s assets, including its top-quality originated mortgages. Today the company acquisitioned an additional $1 billion loan with a currently undisclosed bank or financial institution.

This covers the company for the foreseeable future. In addition, the company has stated that it’s been moving toward this traditional financing over the past few months following last year’s market turmoil.

Lenders’ confidence to keep cash coming to the company is a solid sign that they see similar credibility that we’ve come to understand.

Thornburg Mortgage is on watch, and we’ll continue to survey the company as it works through the challenging mortgage and credit markets.
 
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Originally Posted By: Oldmoparguy1
Oh s**t! PF likes it. The kiss of death!
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Actually even more scary - PF moved it from buy (slowly ie "nibble") to watch..........

Have to soon match the prophesy.
 
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